Shrum: Well, first of all, I think Senator Obama's very smart in telling people that they can't take anything for granted, that you've got to fight for every vote, that he learned the hard lesson in New Hampshire that you can't assume because you're ahead you're necessarily going to win. That said, I think that -- and I don't work for the Obama campaign, so I can say this -- I think if you look at all the objective factors, whether it's most of the national poling, the polling in the battleground states, the schedules the candidates have adopted, where they're spending their time, you'd have to say that the factors in this race now strongly favor Senator Obama.

Q: Wow. And Todd?

Harris: Well, I would love to be able to disagree with Bob, but credibly I just can't. The last remaining hope for Republicans -- and this is not insignificant -- but people are looking at two things. Number one, no one should ever count out John McCain. If he's proven nothing over the course of his career, it's that he's a fighter and that he's often full of surprises. And secondly, given all of the twists and turns that this election has taken over the last 18 months, it is not unreasonable to think that in the next two weeks or so that something else might happen to really shake up the dynamics of the race.

I do think that McCain's destiny, so to speak, is out of his hands. If he is going to win it's not going to be because of some silver bullet or magic talking point that the campaign comes up with, it's going to be because of some external event that really fundamentally shakes up the race.

Q: Or maybe it will be because he's stolen Bob Shrum's language, and the Democrats' language, of Fight, Fight, Fight Fight. Did you like that, Bob?

Shrum: Oh, listen, I think that that is an example of the tricks and the tactics they're trying to pick up. They've got a new one every day. They've got Joe the Plumber -- who isn't a plumber -- who I think they wish had never been interviewed by the press. But I agree with Todd; it's not unreasonable to expect this -- not entirely unreasonable, but highly unlikely. Because McCain has come back from other difficult situations, especially in the primaries earlier this year, doesn't suggest to me that there's anything that I can see right now that's going to bring him back in this race.

The debates were his big opportunity, especially that last debate, and he just didn't do what he had to do; he just didn't measure up to the dimension of the challenge. Partly I think that's because he ended up in this very odd situation -- and I had one of Todd's fellow Republican consultants say this to me -- that his biggest challenge in the third debate was to be presidential, too, T-O-O, implying that Obama had established himself as presidential and, ironically, McCain hadn't. It was hard to do that, be presidential, and to go on the attack at the same time.

Q: Todd?

Harris: No, I think that that's right. We're at the stage of the race right now where you really have to throw all the talking points out the window and just look at the hard facts as they are. And I think it's incumbent upon people when you're looking at polling, looking at the state of the race, you really at this point have to look at this on a state-by-state basis. And Bob's absolutely right; it is a huge uphill climb for McCain to thread the needle, to piece together the states that are necessary to get to 270. I would say probably the only disagreement between the two of us is that I'm still holding out hope that it might somehow happen. And I don't want people to give up, but it's going to be very difficult.

Q: Well, Todd, you didn't read the Washington Post today. They endorsed Obama.

Harris: Shocking. I'm shocked to hear that.

Q: That's what Tucker Bounds said earlier. [The Post] said that the McCain campaign ran a disappointing campaign and that they really hate going against him, but the main reason they go against him is Sarah Palin -- she's not prepared to be commander in chief. Do you think that it was a mistake to pick her, to put you completely on the spot?

Harris: Well, I'll let others --

Shrum: I'll take that. I'll take that.

[laughter]

Q: Bob, will you take that?

Shrum: I think it was McCain's biggest mistake. And I think the problem is not just that she's gone from been a net plus in terms of favorability to being a decided negative in terms of her own ratings, but that when people look at her they see something in her choice by McCain that confounds his received image as someone of integrity who puts country first. And when he sits on television and says, yeah, she was his first choice, everyone knows that's not true. 'Yes, she would be fully capable of taking over' -- people don't believe that. And I think it was a case of short-term gain, a bit of a bounce, and long-term pain.

Q: But Bob, according to Ron Brownstein's cover story in the National Journal this week, looking at the history of exit polls -- you know, these huge amounts of numbers of how people vote -- that the audience that McCain could have grabbed was women, whether college-educated, white women, all kinds of women, Hispanics. So I mean, you could see why they thought that this might help, right?

Shrum: I think if they had vetted her more thoroughly they would have understood, for example, that her odds of appealing to Hilary's supporters were very small. I think actually he might have done better with Hillary's supporters with some other vice presidential choice. And secondly, what's happened is that more and more women have moved toward Obama. I don't think that you can simply pick a woman and, even if she can give a good speech off a teleprompter, even if she can engage people for those first couple of weeks, that you can necessarily assume that she is going to be able to stay the course. That's why most of the time people pick someone for vice president who's at least been out there, been tried and that they know a lot about.

Q: Todd? Stop agreeing. Stop it. I mean, you two have to stop it, honestly. This is ridiculous, this is crazy.

[laughter]

Shrum: No, go to something else; don't put him on the spot on this.

Q: All right, I won't you put you on the spot; let me put you on the spot on something else. Will the McCain campaign now go ultra-negative, as is being predicted?

Harris: Well, I think that their best shot at this stage in the race is not to try to throw the Hail Mary pass, not to throw the long ball. I mean, they've tried that, and it hasn't worked. I think that they need to return to the basics, get back to talking about the economy, get back to talking about McCain's solutions to address the real economic problems that people have. This is three yards and a cloud of dust. This is not throwing the long ball, and it's not nearly as sexy as some of the tactics that they've employed before, but given the political environment that we're in right now, given the economic environment we're in right now, that's the only way to win. I mean, when people are watching their 401(k)s shrivel up before their very eyes, it's very hard to get those people fired up over -- whether it's William Ayers or some of these other associations -- and so I really think they need to focus on the economy.

But I will say, as far as playing the association card, if they're going to play it, go ahead and really play it. Don't play it on one day and then rescind it the next and then play it again the next day and then take [Jeremiah] Wright off the table. If you're going to go down that route, which is really a base election strategy -- getting the Republican base fired up -- if that's the route you're going to go, it's a credible strategy. But actually execute it; don't keep switching back and forth.

Shrum: First, I think the base isn't big enough to pull this off by doing that. Secondly, all the polling appears to indicate that every time McCain does it, it hurts him. As I've said before, I think people are a lot more worried about paying their bills than they are about some guy named Bill Ayers. And the fundamental failure of the McCain campaign has been to give people a credible, positive, hopeful offer about the future of the country.

Q: One final question. The reports are that when Colin Powell appears exclusively on "Meet The Press" he will endorse Obama. What will be the impact on the race? Todd first.

Harris: I think it's probably one more nail in the coffin, but I don't think it's going to fundamentally shake things up all that much. It's not like things were going all that well for Republicans in the first place.

Q: Bob?

Shrum: I think it would be genuinely significant. I think Colin Powell is an iconic figure, served in the Republican administration, left with some dissatisfaction. But I don't think that fundamentally it will change the contours of the race. And by the way, we're all speculating about what Colin Powell is going to do. I don't think we know.

Q: Well, I talked to Tucker Bounds earlier, and it didn't sound like he thought an endorsement was coming his way. Thank you, Bob Shrum.

Shrum: I don't think it is, either.

Q: That was very diplomatic, Bob. Thank you, Bob Shrum and thank you, Todd Harris.

Harris: Thanks, Tammy.