Q: Ron, bring us up to date on the campaign today.

Brownstein: I think, Tammy, after the first debate between McCain and Obama there was a divergence between a kind of punditocracy that thought [John] McCain won and polls that showed most voters thought [Barack] Obama won. Second debate, this week, there was a convergence. I think most observers thought Obama at least got the upper hand, and it's been decisive in the polls, and I think we're seeing that reflected in the polling as the week goes on in the horse race. By and large... we end this week at least where we began it, which is not good news for John McCain, because more time is coming off the clock, and that is with Obama with a fairly solid -- I mean, not insurmountable, but certainly solid -- lead in the national polls, and a lot of these battleground states moving in his direction. The biggest thing I think that's happening is the window of opportunity for McCain is narrowing as Michigan moves off the board, as Pennsylvania moves to a consistent double-digit lead for Obama. He's being put in a position where he has to win almost every battleground red state in order to keep his head above 270 Electoral College votes, and that's obviously very difficult to do.

Q: When was the last time an election was at these numbers this many weeks till the actual election?

Brownstein: It's funny... I'm trying to think of the last election that was roiled by real-world events as momentous as these in the final weeks of the campaign. I mean, maybe you'd have to go back to 1968, perhaps, and some of the developments in Vietnam, but even that I am not sure would compare. It's hard to think of another election in which reality is intruding with such force. Certainly the emergence of this financial crisis tipped the axis of this race toward Obama. You wonder now if even the presidential campaign that's been going on for two years -- that will set records for spending and time and television coverage and all of that -- even with all of that said, the campaign itself seems to be moving to second place in the public consciousness relative to these remarkable and, you know, very unsettling events in the financial markets. And again, I think that that does kind of add to the challenge facing McCain, simply to get the country's attention, particularly when he wants to shift the debate away from the broad economic dispute toward some of these questions about Obama's associations. That is not easy at a moment like this. It certainly can fire up the base, but I think the average American is worrying more about how they're going to pay for their kid's second year of college if, you know, the savings account is down 40 percent over the past year.

Q: Let's talk about how McCain could win today, because you're right -- we talked about other parts of the show today, about Bill Ayers and the other attacks that the Republicans are using. What method could get McCain in to win?

Brownstein: McCain has always done best when he can narrow the lens the most in this race, when he can reduce it to a choice of two individuals and encourage voters to see their decision as essentially asking, "Which one of these two individuals do I believe has the qualities, values and experience that I want in a president?" That has traditionally been his trend. Obama, I think, has always done best at the moments when the lens is widest in the eyes of the voters and we are looking at this not so much as a choice between two individuals as a choice between two directions for the country. Events have dramatically pushed the country, I think, and these conflicted voters toward viewing it through the frame that is more advantageous for Obama. So McCain, you know, needs to find a way to be credible enough on the economy that he can once again try to make an argument that Obama is too risky and that he is the steady hand on the tiller at a time of crisis.

The problem is, I think you have to say objectively that over the last month McCain has compromised that brand. I mean, in many ways Obama at different points has seemed steadier than McCain. Obama's now making the argument that McCain has been erratic, or lurching around in his policies, and I think the whole idea of suspending his campaign and questioning whether he was going to go to the first debate really was a turning point in this race, and not in a good way for McCain, because it raised doubts about whether in fact he does have the kind of temperament and judgment you want in a president. He probably still leads Obama on some of those measures of who's better prepared to be president, but there's no doubt that lead is being eroded, and certainly again in that last debate Obama, you know, at times you kind of wanted to check his pulse, but he kind of projects an aura of calm and command, and McCain seemed a little jumpy, a little agitated -- as you might expect for the candidate behind, but nonetheless, even on the ground that McCain wants to fight on, I guess the point is Obama is in a better position by far than he was six weeks ago.

So you can go out and you can, you know, raise these Bill Ayers or some of these other associations and you can certainly generate a lot of excitement among the base, and you saw in Wisconsin this week there are a lot of base Republicans who want him to go down that road, but I think it is inherently a self-limiting argument that seems somewhat beside the point to swing voters. It's a lot like -- it sounds to me too much like Bob Dole in the last weeks of '96 saying, "Wake up, America," and that basically helped consolidate the Republican base, get them out, but it sort of froze him off from voters in the middle. Interestingly, the person who made that argument to me at the time was a guy named Bill McInturff, who is now John McCain's pollster, so --

Q: Oh my goodness. Well, you know, it's funny, he does kind of remind me of Bob Dole, sort of that angry, uncomfortable -- the other thing I do not understand, Ron, from watching that other debate, poor Tom Brokaw, trying to get something out of them. But the McCain campaign talks about how good he is at town meetings, and they wanted, like, the Obama campaign wanted this format where they walk around, yet McCain, physically, next to Obama -- I mean he's a war hero, he has a hard time lifting his arms. I produced a couple of debates for MSNBC and the rule was, don't ask questions where you have to raise your hand, but he could not look physically more awkward, so I just don't understand how they thought that would help their guy.

Brownstein: Well, you know, it's funny, because I agree that the physical contrast in every way -- age, race, height, the way they speak -- was much more pronounced in this debate than it was in the first one when they were behind the podiums. And... they were kind of in split screens. Here they were in the same space and you got a sense of the enormity of the divergence and the choice that the country faces, and it really, you know -- so far, at least, in the polling post-debate -- it went to Obama's benefit.

I also thought that Obama in this debate was more eloquent than he was in the first debate. You got a sense of... some of that speech rhythm, although still very halting at times, that he's able to deliver on the campaign trail, and whereas McCain, you know, there was not always a straight line through these answers. So I thought it was a very difficult evening for McCain. I thought it was much more one-sided than the first debate, which seemed to be kind of a push.

But, you know, you're coming up to this last debate, and you have an interesting cross-pressure on McCain where you have the base of the party, and perhaps even voices in his own campaign, saying, you know, go out and hammer him over these associations, convince the country that this is someone who doesn't have the values you want in a president, that he's too risky. The danger of that is, you know, you're talking about a 40 percent decline in the stock market. You're talking about people whose plans for retirement or paying for their kids' education are literally being vaporized before their eyes, and there is an enormous risk that if you do that you will seem either grouchy or, you know, kind of mean-spirited, small-minded or, more importantly, just kind of beside the point. I mean, it's just hard to believe that in this particular environment we're in, that most Americans are looking for discussion about Barack Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers. So he's got a very big choice to face as he goes forward into this next debate next week.

Q: And who could ever predict that Iraq wouldn't be a factor in this election?

Brownstein: Amazing. Look, even energy -- I mean, even energy is being effaced and pushed back. I was just out in Colorado writing about how much the energy debate has been dominating the politics of the state out there, and certainly it was for most of this year, even at the national level. But this is a big event. This is an event that changes lives, at least in the short term, and when you have that kind of event, you know, it's just hard to imagine that the political debate doesn't revolve around it. Neither candidate probably has been as reassuring as they want, as the country might want, but I do think that this has raised the stakes and widened the lens, in my term, of this election.... It really seems like the election is about big things right now, and I think that it will be tough for McCain to kind of make the election about the challenger when you have this level of discontent over the country's direction and this level of anxiety over where we're all headed economically.

Q: Obama has bought a half-hour of network time on October 29, and the last person to do that was Ross Perot. What do you think they're going to try to do or try to change the voters at that last moment?

Brownstein: I think the first Obama ad that was of any value to him was the first day of the financial crisis. He went on the air with a two-minute ad of him sitting in a chair talking to the camera and saying, "Here's my economic agenda, and go to the Internet to read my plan." McCain, by the way, came out that same day with an ad that said "experience and leadership in a time of crisis"; it really crystallized the different bets that each side is putting down here at the end, and it's really, in my mind, it is man versus plan. I mean, McCain is selling himself as the experienced leader. Obama is saying, "Look, I have the new agenda that will change the direction of this country." And I can tell you from being out in battleground states -- when you're out in battleground states, and every time the local news goes to commercial there are four or five political attack ads of somebody attacking somebody -- not only Obama and McCain, you know, but all the House candidates and Senate candidates -- and when Obama comes on sitting in that chair, because they've done several of these subsequent ads, it really jumps off the screen as something different.

So my guess is that they will want to do something very much like that -- calm, reassuring, detailed, "look, I have a plan"... when you look at these ads, I think the main thing they do, the Obama in the chair ads, is they make it easier for people to see him as president, which they have always felt is a critical element of this. When you've got 70 percent of a country disapproving of the outgoing president, 80 percent saying we're on the wrong track, you don't have to make the case for change that you normally do as the challenger. But what you really have to do is convince voters who are ready for change that Obama is acceptable change.... Look at the way the acceptance speech was framed. I mean, it looked like he was... walking down the hallway in the White House to start a press conference. It's all about, I think, trying to encourage people to feel more comfortable with him as president, and I suspect that the principal mode of that broadcast will be Obama addressing the problems and details and again trying to make people more accustomed to the idea of seeing him in that role on their television over the next four years.

Q: Thank you, Ron Brownstein.

Brownstein: Thank you, Tammy.