Recent court decisions have brought social issues such as gun rights and gay marriage back into the national spotlight during this election year. But new data from CNN/Opinion Research Corp. shows that such topics, used as wedge issues in the 2004 presidential campaign, seem to be taking a back seat in this year's contest, as the nation's weak economy has transformed the political landscape heading into November.
CNN/ORC pollsters asked registered voters how important various issues will be to them when considering whom to vote for this year. Interestingly, compared to October of 2004, respondents showed a greater deal of concern on topics across the board, as more voters rated each issue "extremely" or "very" important to them. This could suggest that the overall level of enthusiasm for this election is higher than it was four years ago; data from many surveys shows that reported levels of interest in the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain are relatively high.
But voters have a different set of priorities this year than in 2004. Four years ago, terrorism was ranked as the top concern, with 45 percent saying it was an "extremely important" factor in determining their vote and an additional 40 percent calling it "very important." This year, 77 percent of respondents reported that terrorism is extremely or very important, down 8 percentage points; but more tellingly, the issue fell from first to fifth place on voters' list of concerns.
Interest in the Iraq war is up 10 points from 2004, as measured by the number of respondents who said it was extremely important. The war ranked second in significance both years, showing that, despite a dropoff in violence, Americans are still preoccupied with the issue.
But the economy is clearly at the forefront of voters' minds as they survey the field in 2008. While the economy ranked third on voters' list of "extremely important" issues in 2004, it has surged to the top spot this year. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the economy is extremely important to them; that represents a 19-point bump since 2004. In fact, this number has surged 24 points since November 2007 -- indicating how quickly fiscal issues have surpassed national security in voters' campaign calculus. Meanwhile, gasoline prices, which were not even on the list in 2004, ranked third this year, with 48 percent saying fuel costs are an extremely important issue to them.
The four items that ranked lowest on CNN/ORC's list of 15 this year were gun policy, abortion, race relations and gay rights. While the number of voters citing these issues as relevant in the campaign has not fallen much since 2004, the gap between them and the items of greatest concern to voters has widened markedly. It seems that, at a time when Americans are struggling to pay for groceries and to fill up their gas tanks, social issues probably will not play as significant a role in selecting a commander in chief.
Money On Their Minds
Little wonder that voters are tuning in to the candidates' economic appeals when, after months of dire news on that front, economists now expect what they are calling a "slow-motion recession" to continue well into next year. Public opinion reflects that same sense that money woes are here to stay; just one in five Americans told ABC News pollsters [PDF] that now was a good time to make purchases, and only 15 percent gave the national economy a bill of clean health. No measure changed by more than a percentage point in either direction from last week's survey.
Overall, ABC's measure of consumer confidence has rebounded slightly from the record low it hit in late May, and half of those surveyed said their personal finances were in good shape. But the larger decline in economic confidence seems likely to continue through the election cycle, influencing the priorities of voters and candidates alike and coloring public perception of issues as varied as immigration, climate change legislation and international trade.
CNN's recent poll, for example, recorded its highest-ever percentage of respondents who said they considered foreign trade a threat to the economy (51 percent) and its lowest-ever percentage who called it an opportunity for economic growth (41 percent). Last October, when consumer confidence was comparatively bullish, the percentage of respondents who favored foreign trade actually edged out the percentage who viewed it as a threat.
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