For as long as I can remember, there's been a truism about midterm elections: As a president's approval rating goes, so goes his party's prospects that year. If he's polling over 50 percent, his party will do fine. If he's under 50 percent, they'll lose -- and lose big.
At this point, almost a year out from Election Day, we see a mixed bag when it comes to the state of President Obama's job approval ratings. The most recent Gallup poll showed Obama at 56 percent, while the Pollster.com index shows it at 52 percent. Yet, in 10 of the 14 states holding the most competitive Senate contests next year, his approval ratings are under 50 percent. Even in places where Obama's polling strong -- like New Hampshire -- the Democratic candidate for Senate is trailing his GOP opponent. So just how much stock can we put in this traditional marker?
First, there are the outliers, places where the incumbent and not the political environment is the issue. Democratic Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Harry Reid of Nevada sit in states that Obama carried (though Connecticut is obviously a much more reliably blue state). Both senators are well known but are more disliked than liked by voters in their states. To win, they'll need to improve their own standing with voters and at the same time disqualify their opponents. If they can't accomplish these tasks, how well -- or not -- Obama is perceived in their state won't matter all that much.
The GOP label -- a huge liability for candidates running in the Northeast for the last four years -- isn't toxic today.
Then there's the difference between the way independents rate Obama and the way they rate Congress. The most recent Pollster.com index shows 48 percent of independent voters approving of the job Obama's doing and 43 percent disapproving. That's not great -- especially since he carried independent voters with 52 percent in 2008. But it's better than how congressional Democrats fare among independents. When asked who they'd vote for in the midterms, the latest Gallup poll showed just 36 percent of independents picking Democrats while 45 percent picked Republicans.
In general, independents are willing to give Obama a longer leash. In focus groups I've attended both right after the election and earlier this summer, these voters gave Obama the benefit of the doubt where they gave Congress little to no slack. They like him personally. They don't feel anything but animosity toward Congress.
In other places, we've seen how Obama's drop in approval has taken a toll on his party's Senate nominee. In Missouri, a Democratic poll taken at the end of April showed Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading GOP Rep. Roy Blunt 53 percent to 44 percent. A SurveyUSA automated phone poll out at about the same time showed Obama's approval ratings in the state at 57 percent. Fast-forward to October, and Carnahan has a much smaller 48-45 point lead while Obama's approval rating is down to 44 percent. Given the fact that nothing has happened in this race -- the candidates have yet to engage each other in any meaningful way -- it's hard to point to any other reason why Carnahan's lead would drop.
In the New Hampshire Senate race, Obama's numbers seem to be less important than the improving perceptions of Republicans in the Northeast. The most recent Granite State poll taken by the University of New Hampshire showed former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leading Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes by 7 points -- 40-33 percent. This, even while Obama's approval rating was measured at 55 percent.
Why the disconnect between Obama's approval rating and the Democratic Senate candidate's standing? Neither Ayotte nor Hodes is well known, which means that the matchup is really a referendum on the two parties. It shows that the GOP label -- a huge liability for candidates running in this part of the country for the last four years -- isn't toxic today. Among independent voters -- a group that made up 44 percent of the electorate in 2008 -- Ayotte led Hodes by 9 points. According to UNH political science professor Dante Scala, "Jeanne Shaheen led John Sununu 52-35 among these unaffiliated voters a full year before the election." This doesn't mean that Ayotte's a slam dunk to win this seat. It just means that she doesn't start off at a disadvantage because she has an "R" after her name. That alone is a victory compared with 2006 and 2008.
Voters who said they wanted change in '06/'08 were expecting to see results. If they don't, it's likely they'll vote against Democrats -- even if they say they'd like to see Obama succeed.
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