With the all-important caveat, "Be careful not to put too much stock in special election results," the March 31 special contest in New York's 20th District between Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy has some national implications. Here's who's got some skin in the game:
• President Obama: This is the first contest where Obama's agenda -- not George W. Bush's -- is on the ballot. More specifically, it's his stimulus package that's the focus of the debate here. Murphy's for it, Tedisco's against it. Murphy touts the jobs the stimulus will provide to economically struggling communities in upstate New York, while Tedisco argues that support for the stimulus equals an endorsement of the AIG bonuses.
Democrats are going to have to defend a lot of districts that look like N.Y.-20, or worse.
Thus far, Obama has not made an appearance of any sort here. And there are plenty of reasons why he shouldn't. First, the more directly attached to this race he gets, the more his own popularity and that of his programs are tested. With a big budget fight just around the corner, it's understandable that he'd want to avoid taking any risks.
Plus, while Obama narrowly carried this district, it has a GOP lean that is likely to be even more pronounced in a low-turnout special election. Insiders, however, note that the president, while not as popular as former Rep. (now Sen.) Kirsten Gillibrand, is well-liked in the district.
It is likely that if the president does get involved, it will be in a low-profile way. Instead of a full-throated public endorsement like appearing in a TV commercial for Murphy, his support could be voiced via robocalls or direct mail to base voters.
But if Obama does decide to stay under the radar here, what does it say to other Democrats who sit in marginal districts and are hoping to find cover in their popular leader? At what point will they see him spending his political capital on them? In 2010, Democrats are going to have to defend a lot of districts that look like N.Y.-20, or worse. The Swing State Project lists 49 districts held by Democrats that were carried by John McCain. Of those 49 Democrats, all but six voted for the stimulus bill.
• The NRCC: Both sides have put in big bucks here, but it's the National Republican Congressional Committee that has the most riding on the outcome. Success begets success, and Republicans haven't had much of it lately. If Tedisco loses, it's going to be a huge blow to their immediate fundraising and recruiting efforts. If they can't win here, it's hard to make the argument that they're going to have much luck knocking off better-known and better-funded Democratic incumbents next year.
To be sure, potential candidates and donors look to the president's numbers -- not a special election in New York -- to gauge their own involvement in the political process. If Obama's struggling, they'll jump in. If he looks strong, they'll back off. Even so, a win would boost morale, which is the first step needed in getting candidates and donors to buy in to the NRCC for 2010.
• Michael Steele: Usually it's the chairman of the House campaign committee who gets the credit or the blame after a special election. But the fact that the Republican National Committee chairman called this race a priority means he gets the scrutiny as well. Of course, he wouldn't be getting this much scrutiny if he weren't already embattled -- something for which he has himself to blame.
Whether a loss here would be enough to get the anti-Steele members of the RNC engaged to call for his ouster is unclear (there are rumors swirling that it would). But it would certainly be another day of bad press for a chairman who can't afford many more before it starts to take a toll on his ability to be an effective fundraiser and communicator (the two most important requirements for a national party chairman).
In the end, given the uncertainty about what the economy will look like even two months from now, today's debate about the stimulus and AIG bonuses in N.Y.-20 could look incredibly dated in 20 months. But actions that Obama and the party committee leaders take or don't take today could give us a window into how they will conduct themselves during the 2010 elections.
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