With so much focus on the Democratic primary, it seems only appropriate to check in on how Sen. John McCain has been spending his free time. At this point, we find a candidate who has not made the best use of this unique opportunity to define himself (and his opposition), especially on the issue of economy – McCain’s weakest link and voters’ biggest concern.
The first thing McCain needed to do was unify the base. After all, even when the GOP primary was all but over, McCain was still unable to carry the white Evangelical vote in states like Texas. Since then, he’s trotted out conservative standard bearers, culminating with the endorsement of Nancy Reagan.
Even so, the latest Diageo/Hotline poll showed that Republicans are less enthusiastic about supporting him than they were just a month ago. In February, 50 percent of Republican voters said that they’d support McCain “enthusiastically in November.” This month, just 38 percent said that. Is this buyer’s remorse? That seems unlikely given that McCain’s done nothing to aggravate the base. It’s not like he’s been running around asking for more active stance on immigration reform or campaign finance reform.
Or is this a sign that the more he stands alone, the less impressive he looks? When Republicans were forced to think about nominee McCain v. nominee Mike Huckabee McCain looked strongest.
Or, is it simply a reflection of the general lack of enthusiasm that Republicans are showing for this election? Perhaps. But, interestingly enough the Diageo/Hotline poll did show a slight uptick among GOP voters in terms of their optimism about doing winning the White House in 2008. In February Hotline/Diageo polling, just 49% of Republicans thought that the GOP nominee would have the “best chance” of winning in November. In March that number ticked up to 53 percent. Even among independent voters Republican chances improved from a weak 25 percent to a better, but still anemic 35 percent.
Most important, McCain has the unique opportunity to re-introduce himself to voters while Democrats are still caught up with their own internal battles. So, how does he decide to do this in a year where voters say they want change and a new direction? He launches a “biography tour” that treks through his past.
While there’s little doubt that McCain’s life story and service to the country is a powerful one, it suggests that he views the best way to move America forward is to protect what has made America great. A year ago, according to NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were evenly divided on the question of whether they’d like a president who focused on “protecting” or whether they’d prefer a president who will “help America move forward.” Today, however, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that almost two-thirds of voters (57 percent) want to focus on moving forward and just 39 percent want to focus on protection.
The good news for McCain is that he starts with a reservoir of good will among independent voters. This means that unlike President Bush, McCain actually has a receptive (albeit skeptical) audience of voters.
That gives him a unique opportunity to start framing his position on the economy before the Democrats do it for him. Instead, the GOP and the McCain camp seem more determined to debate over whether or not McCain declared he’d have the U.S. spend “100 years” in Iraq.
Voters like McCain much more than they like a generic Republican candidate. Yet, that support hasn’t translated into a belief that he’ll do a better job than Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama on the economy. In the Hotline/Diageo poll, just 33 percent of voters said they thought the Republican party would do a better job handling the economy. When matched up against Clinton and Obama, just 35 percent of voters picked McCain as stronger.
McCain and the GOP want to have a fight in November that centers around character and patriotism. But, for voters who are desperately looking for a break from the campaign rhetoric of the last 8 years – and are struggling with a sagging economy – that won’t be enough.
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