Independents are breaking towards John McCain in the closing hours of the campaign, a shift that has eroded Barack Obama's lead nationally and in several key battleground states -- but may be too little, too late.
Independents backed Obama by a 12-percentage-point margin in the Oct. 28 Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll, but that advantage has since ebbed. The candidates evenly split the independent vote on Saturday and Sunday, and today's Diageo/Hotline poll gives Obama a relatively narrow 6-point cushion. Obama's overall lead has narrowed, too, down from 8 points on Oct. 28 to 5 points today. McCain's success in peeling away these voters continues a trend that began in the middle of last week.
Pew Research is showing a similar independent shift away from Obama: the Democrat held a 17-point lead among these voters in an Oct. 28 Pew poll, but that advantage slipped to a 45-39 margin in the Nov. 2 survey. In the latest poll, Obama leads McCain overall by 6 points, down from a 16-point advantage Oct. 28.
Nationally, independents have not broken decisively in favor of one candidate in the last two presidential elections. In 2000, President Bush won independents by a narrow 47-45 margin. In 2004, those voters backed John Kerry 49-48.
McCain has also closed his deficit among independents in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states he needs to win the presidency. In Ohio, Obama now leads McCain 48-44 among independents, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today -- down from his 12-point advantage in the Oct. 29 survey. McCain has trimmed Obama's overall lead from 9 to 7 points over that period. In Pennsylvania, independent voters now back Obama 49-42, down from his 54-35 margin in last week's poll. At the same time, the Democrat's overall lead in the Keystone State has shrunk from 12 to 10 points.
White Voters Central To Obama Leads
Despite independents' movement toward McCain, Obama's comfortable cushions in Ohio and Pennsylvania reflect the Democrat's strength among white voters. While Kerry won independents by a wide 59-40 margin in Ohio, he lost the state in large part because white voters backed Bush 56-44. Today's Quinnipiac poll, on the other hand, shows Obama trailing McCain by just 3 points among white voters in the Buckeye State.
The story is the same in Pennsylvania, where Kerry eked out a 2-point win in 2004. White voters supported Bush 54-45 there in the last presidential race, but that same bloc is split 47-47 this year, according to the Quinnipiac poll, contributing to Obama's 10-point lead in the state. While McCain has spent more time and resources there in recent days, and the National Rifle Association is preparing an Election Day ad blitz targeted at blue-collar voters, Obama has been buoyed by steady support from white voters there. The last poll that showed McCain leading Obama in Pennsylvania was an April 25 Rasmussen survey that gave the Republican a 1-point advantage.
"Senator Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Johnson was the last Democrat to carry the white vote nationally.
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