After a tough couple of weeks -- topped off by Tom Ridge's decision not to run against Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania -- Republicans get a huge break with Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's entry into the Senate race. While this wasn't unexpected, it is a needed pick-me-up for a party that is constantly being poked for signs of life. But should we take Crist's move to be the political equivalent of a crocus sprouting, a sign that more good things are coming soon? Or is this just a flash of color in an otherwise bleak landscape for the national party?
One shouldn't jump to conclusions about the national implications of Crist's decision. Remember, he has made a name for himself recently by joining with, not fighting against, President Obama. And his path to 2010 is made smoother by solid poll numbers (something few governors can boast these days) and a weak Democratic field. With his strongest potential opponent, state CFO Alex Sink, out of the running, Crist is likely to face Rep. Kendrick Meek in the fall. Meek has been a strong fundraiser, but his base in Miami limits his appeal.
Crist represents more of a 'save' than a win.
Democrats insist that Crist's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep. Even so, how much money are they willing to invest in this very expensive state to try and wipe that patina off him?
A truer pocketbook test for Democrats -- and viability test for Republicans -- will lie in other key races, most obviously with newly appointed Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Ted Kaufman (Del.), Roland Burris (Ill.) and Michael Bennet (Colo.). At this point, however, none have serious Republican opposition.
Reps. Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Michael Castle (Del.) represent the GOP's "silver bullet" opportunities. They are not only the strongest candidates, they're the only Republicans who can win in these blue states. In Illinois, Kirk seems to be waiting to enter until he knows just what the primary field looks like. But with candidate filing closing in early November, he doesn't have all that much time left to ponder his options. In Delaware, insiders say that Castle is truly torn about the Senate race. Meanwhile, one of the state's strongest Democratic candidates, former Lt. Gov. John Carney, has already announced he's running for Castle's House seat no matter what. If Castle has a tough statewide race anyway (Delaware's an at-large congressional seat), why not go for the more high-profile contest? That's not to minimize the intensity of a Senate race, especially if he faces off against the vice president's son, former state Attorney General Beau Biden.
Like Crist, Kirk and Castle will base their decisions not so much on the national picture as on their own unique circumstances.
In New York, Reps. Steve Israel (Long Island) and Carolyn Maloney (Manhattan) are serious about challenging Gillibrand in a Democratic primary. Given that about two-thirds of the primary vote comes from the New York City region, this is more than just a nuisance to Gillibrand. Unlike Illinois' early filing deadline, New York's is next July, which gives potential Republican candidates the opportunity to sit on the sidelines to see if this evolves into a bruising and/or money-draining primary. The most recent Marist poll showed former Gov. George Pataki leading Gillibrand by 8 points. Notably, however, Pataki was still under 50 percent of the vote -- a bad sign for someone with almost universal name ID.
That leaves Colorado, where a thin bench limits whatever opportunities Republicans could have against the virtually unknown incumbent. Three candidates have announced their intentions to run here. None of them are well-established.
In the end, Crist represents more of a "save" than a win. If Castle and Kirk both decide to run, Republicans can start to brag about momentum. Until then, they're still going to be spending more time on defense (Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire and Kentucky) than they are on offense.
Want to stay ahead of the curve? Sign up for National Journal’s AM & PM Must Reads. News and analysis to ensure you don’t miss a thing.
Join the Discussion