Much has been made about August being a "make or break" month for the health care debate. At this point, though, Republicans have already won the messaging war -- never mind the fist bumps House Democrats gave each other last week for passing a bill out of the Energy and Commerce Committee. Do Dems really have a chance to rewrite the debate over the dog days of summer?
The GOP didn't change Americans from health care reform advocates to detractors overnight. By tapping into the "government-run health care" vein, they hit a long-held soft spot for many voters, namely their inherent distrust of Washington-run programs. From 1992 until 2006, CNN/USA Today/Gallup asked the question "How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?" Except in the period immediately following the 9/11 attacks, a majority of voters have said that they trust the government only "some of the time." That number was as large as 75 percent in 1993.
Can you really cut off the woman who's been talking for 10 minutes about her son's life-threatening illness?
As we've known for a while now, the battle for health reform isn't going to be decided by winning over partisans; they've already taken sides. In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, just 30 percent of Republicans said they approved of "Congress and the president enacting a major overhaul of the U.S. health care system." Almost all Democrats (83 percent) approved. Independents, meanwhile, were almost evenly divided with slightly more approving (49 percent) than disapproving (43 percent).
I got some insight into how those independents may be thinking at a focus group in Towson, Md., hosted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. All 12 participants were self-identified independents, with just over half (seven) having voted for Barack Obama.
Once the conversation turned to health care, the overwhelming message was pretty simple: slow down. One participant worried that Congress couldn't possibly complete comprehensive health care reform in just six months. Another said it "can't be done overnight" and that doing something "too fast" could make things worse. For independents, then, the issue seems to be less about specific elements of a health care plan -- public option versus a co-op -- than a fear that Congress has created an artificial timetable that is causing them to rush through what should be a thought-out, balanced plan. Speed, in Democrats' case, is not their friend.
Meanwhile, it was also interesting to note the toll that this debate is taking on these voters' views of the Democratic Party. While almost all of them still felt some personal affinity for Obama -- the overwhelming feeling was "hopeful" -- they were almost universally disappointed in Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Terms like "pushy," "outspoken," and "self-centered" were thrown around the room. As for the Democratic Party generally, they used terms like "divided" and "split." To be sure, they weren't in love with Republicans, either; one participant said they have a "long way to go." Another chided them for "not tackling issues."
With the party's political hopes in the balance, can "grassroots" groups hoping to persuade wavering members do so over the recess by packing town hall meetings? We've already seen some pictures and heard reports of lawmakers being hounded by angry citizens at these public forums. Even so, it's worth asking whether members of Congress will really use these forums as barometers of their community's feelings on the issue.
One former GOP Hill staffer lamented that there was a time, back in the '80s especially, when town hall meetings were "petitioning your government at its best." Now, he said, "technology has almost ruined them," as they've become more like "opportunities for 'gotcha moments'" to end up on YouTube. A former Democratic chief of staff, however, said that members are "pretty good at reading people" even with the chance of planted questions. After all, she notes, those lawmakers wouldn't have gotten elected in the first place if they totally misjudged their districts. Even so, she suggests that these town hall meetings often just "reinforce the leanings of those districts."
The personal nature of health care -- especially the stories of death and disfigurement at the hands of the health care industry -- makes for lots of potentially uncomfortable moments as well. Can you really cut off the woman who's been talking for 10 minutes about her son's life-threatening illness?
This is the conundrum for Democrats right now. Ultimately, they have to convince independent voters that they haven't been hasty in crafting a bill, but they also can't afford for health care to hang out in no-man's land much longer.
Despite all the money being spent on TV ads and all the vitriol against "socialized medicine" or the "evil" insurance industry, this debate isn't going to gel for most voters until Obama has a bill to sign. A still-fluid health care debate makes it easy for Democrats to avoid get pinned down on the specifics but hard for them to win the message war.
In the end, they aren't likely to move numbers much over the break. Instead, they're going to have put their faith in Obama that he can do it for them once a bill gets into his hands.
Want to stay ahead of the curve? Sign up for National Journal’s AM & PM Must Reads. News and analysis to ensure you don’t miss a thing.
Join the Discussion