A new poll shows Rep. Joe "You Lie" Wilson in trouble, while in New Jersey polling shows Gov. Jon Corzine closing the gap with his Republican challenger. Could we really be living in world where a Republican loses a seat in South Carolina for being anti-Obama and anti-health reform while an embattled and unpopular governor holds onto his? A closer look at these polls suggests we shouldn't take the numbers at face value.
The latest poll from Monmouth University shows that former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie's 14-point lead among likely voters has shrunk to 8 points since early August. Among registered voters, Christie went from leading Corzine by 4 points to trailing by 1 (40 to 41 percent).
Rob Miller, despite his newfound fundraising bonanza, won't beat Joe Wilson.
That this race is tightening should come as no surprise. When only a quarter of the vote comes from Republicans, it's hard for any GOP candidate to "crush" even the weakest Democrat. Plus, Corzine has the cash to effectively saturate the crowded New York City and Philadelphia TV markets while also paying for the ground troops responsible for getting Democrats to the polls.
Since July, Corzine's bumped up 10 points among Democrats -- to 77 percent. But that's still very weak. For comparison's sake, a Fairleigh Dickinson poll of New Jersey voters in early September showed President Obama with 88 percent approval among Democrats. For Corzine to win, he needs to get 85 to 90 percent of Democrats. If he does that, he can lose independents -- up to a point -- and still win. But the fact that independent candidate Chris Daggett is taking 7 percent of Democrats makes it that much harder for Corzine to hit that 85-90 percent threshold.
Why is the race so much closer among registered voters than likely voters? It's not that Corzine's doing better with all voters (he's at 39 percent among likely voters and 41 percent among registered voters), it's that Christie's polling worse (47 percent to 40 percent). The reason: There are more undecideds among registered voters than likely voters -- 11 percent to 7 percent. Given how nasty this race has been and will continue to be, many of those undecided voters may ultimately decide to just stay home. That should help Christie, since the most committed voters tilt slightly his way.
Down the road a ways in South Carolina, a PPP poll taken late last week showed Wilson in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger Rob Miller -- 43 percent to 44 percent. But Miller, despite his newfound fundraising bonanza, won't beat Wilson.
First, this is South Carolina -- not New Jersey. This district may not be the reddest around, but it gave John McCain 54 percent of the vote. And our guess is that Obama's less popular, not more popular, than he was in November. Second, the PPP poll assumed that 25 percent of the electorate would be African-American. But based on historical turnout figures, there's little chance that black turnout will be this high.
Meanwhile, no one seems to know if Miller even supports Obama's health plan. We haven't seen any polling here, but we'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the Democratic health plan is pretty darn unpopular in S.C.-02. Of course, if Miller came out against the plan, he'd infuriate the liberal donors who have showered him with hundreds of thousands of dollars. In that case, it's probably best for Miller to keep his mouth shut and try to get as much money as he can before he has to weigh in.
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