BANTAM, Conn. -- Noting a series of high-profile missteps and plunging poll numbers, Connecticut Democrats are increasingly worried about Sen. Christopher Dodd's chances of winning a sixth term in 2010. However, sources here added that neither a primary challenge nor a decision by Dodd to step aside seems assured at this point, which suggests that Dodd's fate could come down to a hard-fought general election battle.
While multiple sources here said that it is too early to assume that Dodd would lose a re-election bid, all agreed that he cannot afford another stumble.
Connecticut Democrats said that none of Dodd's missteps -- his role in enabling big bonuses at bailout recipient American International Group, his "VIP" mortgage with embattled lender Countrywide, questions about his ownership of a cottage in Ireland, and his decision to change his residency to Iowa during his unsuccessful 2008 presidential run -- would be fatal individually. The problem is the accumulation of all of them, made worse by Dodd's sometimes clumsy handling of the controversies.
"When I speak to people, their reaction is very visceral," said Nick Paindiris, a member of the Democratic State Central Committee and former chairman of the Glastonbury Democratic Town Committee. "It's not that they don't like his policies. They feel that he hasn't really properly explained himself to people who are critical of the accumulated events. It's a real problem that, in my judgment, will not go away."
In his most recent campaign finance filing, released last week, Dodd reported more than $1 million in receipts for the first three months of this year -- a strong showing considering his rocky couple of months.
But media reports found that even this achievement contains seeds of trouble, because the numbers enable opponents to paint him as too dependent on the finance industry. Mother Jones, the liberal magazine, reported that almost one-third of that money came from "banking and investment executives, financial industry trade groups, and finance-oriented political action committees."
By contrast, Dodd raised just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the quarter, compared to $604,745 from nearly 400 people outside the state, the home-state Connecticut Post reported on Friday.
Indeed, Republicans here say they can't wait to remind voters in 30-second ads about how the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs chairman made a longshot bid for president as the world economy was beginning to implode.
While the AIG controversy has drawn the most fire recently, several sources said the questions over Dodd's Countrywide mortgage, especially whether he got special treatment from a company blamed for subprime mortgages, are going to be a bigger problem over the long term.
Dodd has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and is awaiting a determination by the Senate Ethics Committee.
"People in politics and the media haven't understood how that story captured the public's attention," said Kevin Rennie, a former Republican state legislator who now writes a political column for the Hartford Courant. "He's mishandled it at every turn, and I think it will continue to grow.... These issues go to the heart of the perception of who he is, and it's very hard to change that."
A Quinnipiac poll taken in late March, in the wake of the AIG controversy, found that voters disapprove of Dodd's job performance, 58 percent to 33 percent. According to Quinnipiac, Dodd's approval rating fell by 16 points in just a few weeks.
More startling for a senior senator in a state dominated by his party were the Democrat's head-to-head numbers against three Republicans. Dodd trailed GOP moderate Rob Simmons, his likeliest 2010 rival, 50 percent to 34 percent; trailed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, 41 percent to 37 percent; and trailed former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, 43 percent to 35 percent. Only a third of respondents said they "probably" or "definitely" will vote for Dodd, versus 59 percent who said they they "definitely" or "probably" won't vote for him.
Still, the only concrete indication of a Democratic primary challenge so far has come from former Greenwich first selectman Roger Pearson, who told Rennie in early April that he is forming a committee to explore the possibility of a bid. Pearson said he "is very disaffected" with Dodd.
But Democratic sources here aren't convinced that Pearson would be able to topple Dodd, and they suggested that Dodd is less vulnerable to a primary challenge than his fellow Connecticut senator, Joe Lieberman, was in 2006. The primary defeat of Lieberman by insurgent Democrat Ned Lamont was presaged by years of strained relations between Democratic activists and Lieberman, on both personal and policy grounds. By contrast, little if any such personal animus exists between Democratic activists and Dodd, and most share his positions on key issues.
The Post reported Friday that Dodd campaign manager Jay Howser was pointing to the senator's first-quarter fundraising as "a solid foundation to build a strong, grassroots campaign.... There is only one candidate in this race who spends each and every day championing the interests of Connecticut families and working hand-in-hand with President [Barack] Obama to get our economy back on track -- Chris Dodd."
For a primary challenge to become a serious threat, sources here said, it would take significant support by Lamont's backers, and possibly Lamont himself running as a candidate.
"There is an element of the Democratic Party that wants to kick out the establishment," said Kevin Reynolds, the counsel to the state Democratic Party. "They would go after Dodd in a second if they could. I don't think it's there yet, but there's the potential for it."
Reynolds added that there are lots of people in the party who are neither Dodd loyalists nor Dodd critics. They tend to be pragmatists who care about keeping the seat Democratic regardless of who occupies it, he said, and in the battle over Dodd's fate, "I think they are still in play."
The state party is remaining behind Dodd.
Nancy DiNardo, the state Democratic chairwoman, said in an interview that she continues to support Dodd. But she added that the senator "recognizes that people are angry and are questioning him.... He gets it -- there's absolutely no doubt in my mind."
Even Obama is getting involved, telling the Boston Globe on Friday: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help.... He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that."
The natural person to run if Dodd were to step aside would be state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, whom voters gave a 79 percent approval rating in a February Quinnipiac poll. "Why rely on a three-pointer when a layup would do?" suggested Paindiris. "If Blumenthal can win against anyone, why risk that anyone could beat Dodd?"
However, Blumenthal has become known as an extraordinarily risk-averse politician, and while he is expected to run if Dodd were to retire, most here said they are skeptical that Blumenthal would work either publicly or privately to push Dodd out of the 2010 race.
Moreover, there are few if any Connecticut Democrats with the stature to convince Dodd to step aside. Reps. Rosa DeLauro and John Larson could do so, but they have shown no signs yet that they will, sources here agreed.
Connecticut Republicans -- who have lost three of the state's five House seats over the past two election cycles -- are salivating at the prospect of ousting Dodd, an opportunity that few of them would have imagined possible just a few months ago.
"If the Connecticut Republican Party can't beat Chris Dodd in 2010, we might as well turn out the lights and go out of business," said George Gallo, the former chairman of the state GOP. "It's the Republicans' race to lose at this point. Every poll clearly indicates that he has problems."
Foley and a fourth potential candidate -- Jack Orchulli, who ran against Dodd in 2004 -- have deep pockets and could self-fund a campaign. Sources described Caligiuri as the most conservative of the field and Simmons as the most moderate.
Simmons won kudos from Nutmeg State voters for his handling of his narrow 2006 loss by a few dozen votes, said University of Connecticut political scientist Ron Schurin. "He handled it with enormous grace," Schurin said.
A complicating factor for Dodd's own decisionmaking, several sources here speculated, would be his own family history. His father, Democratic Sen. Thomas Dodd, was censured in 1967 over alleged misuse of campaign money. He decided not to run for another term in 1970, but after the Democrats nominated another candidate, Dodd re-entered the race as an independent. Republican Lowell Weicker eventually won the seat.
Armchair psychologists here suspect that Dodd might prefer to go down fighting rather than allow his critics to force him out of the race. This would make the already steep odds of nudging him out of the contest even steeper.
Dodd has not faced a tough re-election fight in years. However, he did have a scare several years before his 1992 re-election campaign. Reynolds recalled that one poll showed the junior senator's re-election prospects only in the high 30 percent range among Democrats. But under the new leadership of Doug Sosnik, later a top political advisor to President Clinton, Dodd turned it around and won another term.
Gallo, the former state GOP chairman, acknowledges that Dodd "is probably the best campaigner the state has to offer. It's to the Republicans' detriment if we underestimate him."
Louis Jacobson is a contributing editor for National Journal. He can be reached at ljacobson@nationaljournal.com.
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