Despite the ongoing hand-wringing among many Republican insiders and pundits about the fate of the party in the Obama age, a mini-resurgence of the moderate GOP brand is quietly taking place in the Northeast.
In almost every state north of the Mason-Dixon Line, Democratic officeholders are struggling and a GOP candidate is polling well. In places like New Jersey, Connecticut and New York, there are signs that moderate Republicans, once considered extinct, are reappearing. Like any endangered creature, they went underground until a better climate appeared.
Chris Christie has shown signs that he's not going to give Jon Corzine an opening to label him as out of touch.
Timing, of course, is everything. A dreadful economy means tough budget decisions for all governors, Democrat or Republican. Yet it's also true that the tough economic climate isn't the only reason Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey is struggling. Corzine's been making politically unpopular budget decisions for years, including his failed 2008 effort to raise tolls on state roads to cut the budget deficit. His job-approval ratings have been upside-down for basically a year and a half. Plus, he hasn't led former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) since shortly after Christie filed his papers. The most recent Quinnipiac poll shows him 12 points behind.
Corzine's only advantages are his own bankroll (which is smaller than it was in '05) and the fact that New Jersey is a difficult state in which to communicate. To reach Garden State voters, you have to make pricey ad buys in Philadelphia and New York City. This gives Corzine the opportunity to define Christie before Christie gets a chance to do it himself.
But Christie has shown that he's not going to give Corzine much of an opening to label him as out of touch with mainstream New Jersey. He's already said no to a Sarah Palin visit and yes to confirming Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court. His law-and-order background, which just a few weeks ago looked out of place in a year when the economy has top billing, just got a whole lot more valuable with the recent roundup of numerous local officials in a money-laundering and bribery crackdown.
Other examples:
• In Connecticut, former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who's challenging Sen. Christopher Dodd (D), is trying to prove that there is life after a wave. While this race is a referendum on Dodd more than anything else, the GOP alternative needs to be able to attract a majority of independent voters. If Simmons is the nominee, he's certain to be hit with his connections to the GOP-led Congress and President George W. Bush, as he was when he narrowly lost his House seat in 2006. But while the former president won't be any more popular in Connecticut in 2010, it's hard to believe that he'll be as toxic.
• In New Hampshire, many Republicans are rallying around former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg. While her views on most federal issues are unknown at this point, the fact that she was appointed by a GOP governor and reappointed by a Democrat means that on paper, at least, she looks like a good fit for independent-minded Granite Staters.
• In upstate New York's 23rd District, the opportunity for Democrats to pad their current 40-seat majority in the House looks more tenuous than ever. When President Obama picked GOP Rep. John McHugh as Army secretary in early June, it meant a special election in a district that has a GOP history but Democratic tendencies. Obama carried the district with 52 percent. In recent days, however, Democrats have lost their strongest candidate, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, while Republicans have nominated state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who supports abortion rights and gay marriage and picked up the Independence Party endorsement.
Elections are about alternatives. If voters don't like the status quo, they're willing to look for other options. But when those options look either as unpalatable or worse, they can fall back to support the devil they know. At this point, Republicans in the Northeast are showing that they understand the need to run candidates with the ability to appeal to the independents who left them in droves over the last two elections.
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