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POLITICS

Opening Acts

Obama's approval ratings after 100 days are high -- but so were Carter's and Nixon's.

by William Schneider

Saturday, May 2, 2009


Senior White House adviser David Axelrod calls the 100-day benchmark "an odd custom, the journalistic equivalent of the Hallmark holiday."

The custom goes back to Franklin D. Roosevelt, who took office in 1933 during an economic catastrophe and used his first 100 days to launch the New Deal. When the new president convened a special session of Congress, the Democrats, who had just won huge majorities in the House and Senate, were ready to do his bidding.

Just in case, Roosevelt warned ominously in his Inaugural Address that if Congress should fail to act, he would ask for "broad executive power to wage a war against the emergency" -- as great, he said, "as the power that would be given to me if we were in fact invaded by a foreign foe."

Even in a time of crisis, presidents can no longer count on the kind of cooperation that FDR got in 1933.

No need. In an unprecedented rush of activity, Congress gave the president nearly everything he sought: 15 major bills in the first 100 days, including the Emergency Banking Relief Act and legislation creating the Public Works Administration, the Civilian Conservation Corps, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the National Industrial Recovery Act, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Not to mention the Beer-Wine Revenue Act, which anticipated the repeal of Prohibition. The spirit of bipartisanship led a White House adviser to remark that lawmakers "had forgotten to be Republicans or Democrats."

"Congress doesn't pass legislation anymore," humorist Will Rogers said. "They just wave at the bills as they go by."

Nothing since has equaled FDR's first 100 days. Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, when the nation faced another economic crisis. The Republican takeover of the Senate gave Reagan a mandate, although the House remained under Democratic control. President Reagan focused his agenda narrowly on tax and spending cuts, which he did not get until after the 100-day mark. But Reagan's honeymoon was extended by the new president's gallant response to an assassination attempt on March 30.

Bill Clinton was also elected during an economic crisis. Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress in 1993, but the president's party had not gained seats in the 1992 election. President Clinton's first 100 days were marred by political setbacks -- his difficulty in finding an attorney general, controversies over gays in the military, a tax increase, and his decision to put his wife in charge of health care reform. The Senate blocked Clinton's economic stimulus plan, and his budget ultimately passed without a single Republican vote.

Barack Obama has had the boldest 100-day agenda since FDR. But Congress has passed only a few major bills, including the economic stimulus package (with no Republican votes in the House and only three in the Senate), the public lands preservation bill, and an expansion of children's health insurance.

President Obama took office with a mandate for change. Democrats made big gains in 2006 and again in 2008. The president's party now controls 59 percent of the seats in the House and 60 percent in the Senate (assuming that the Democratic victory in Minnesota's Senate race is sustained). It took 14 years, but the Republican landslide of 1994 has been pushed back.

But things have changed since FDR. Even in a time of crisis, presidents can no longer count on the kind of bipartisan cooperation that Roosevelt got in 1933.

Obama's job-approval rating after 100 days averages out to 64 percent. That's a little higher than the average for his six most recently elected predecessors after their first 100 days (61 percent in the Gallup Poll). All six were approximately in the same range (55 to 67 percent). All of them were elected either in or after the late 1960s, when the great division in American politics emerged -- conservative versus liberal; red versus blue.

Each president since the 1960s has taken office with hard cores of supporters and opponents. Before Americans became so divided, new presidents came in with a greater reserve of goodwill. Ratings for John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower were noticeably higher after 100 days (83 percent for Kennedy, 72 percent for Eisenhower).

At the end of his first 100 days, Jimmy Carter had 63 percent approval, about the same as Obama. Richard Nixon had 60 percent. You can't tell a presidency by its first 100 days.

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"Political Pulse" is Bill Schneider's take on politics and public opinion.


billschneider@turner.com

Previously in Political Pulse

  • Taking The Long View On The Recovery (04/25/2009)
  • Tough Luck For Big Business (04/18/2009)
  • GOP Enters Spring Training Looking For A Closer (04/11/2009)
  • Ramping Up (04/04/2009)
  • Bank Bailouts Are A Minefield For Obama (03/28/2009)

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