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POLITICAL PULSE
Three Days, Four Goals For McCain
The Republican Has Some Work To Do In What Remains Of The Convention
John McCain has to do four things in four days at this convention. Make that three days. He lost the first day to Hurricane Gustav.
What should be on McCain's to-do list for the convention?
Item 1: Distance yourself from President Bush.
Good news. Bush spoke on Tuesday night from the White House -- 900 miles away. No embarrassing photo-ops of McCain and Bush embracing.
The Democratic convention did do some damage to McCain. Remember how Barack Obama kept saying that McCain equals four more years of Bush? "John McCain has voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time," Obama said in his acceptance speech. "What does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush has been right more than 90 percent of the time? I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to take a 10 percent chance on change."
It worked. The number of Americans who believe that McCain's policies would be the same as Bush's has gone up, from 48 percent in April to 50 percent just before the Democratic convention to 54 percent after the convention, according to polls taken for CNN by Opinion Research.
Item 2: Reclaim the Iraq issue.
The public acknowledges that things are going better in Iraq. The number of Americans who think that the United States is winning has jumped from 29 percent in March to 49 percent now. More Americans also think that the U.S. will end up winning the war (37 percent in March; 50 percent now). Nevertheless, the war issue is receding in importance as the economy and energy issues consume the agenda.
McCain's advantage on the Iraq issue has disappeared. For the past year, a majority of Americans had consistently rated McCain better than Obama when it comes to dealing with Iraq. That wasn't because voters agree with McCain's views on the war. They don't. Instead, it was because McCain has stronger military credentials. In the latest CNN poll, however, taken immediately after the Democratic convention, McCain lost his lead on Iraq. Forty-nine percent say that Obama would handle the issue better; 48 percent say McCain.
That's a striking irony. Just when voters think that the war is going better, they take the issue away from McCain.
In fact, Obama has the edge on six of eight issues tested, including gasoline prices and taxes. McCain continues to have the upper hand only on illegal immigration, a subject he dare not bring up at the Republican convention, and terrorism. The latter was the issue that dominated the 2004 campaign, the first presidential contest after 9/11. The terrorism issue is not nearly as prominent this time.
Item 3: Close the energy gap.
Voter energy, that is, not gas for your car. Two-thirds of Democrats say they're "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting this year. Among Republicans, just 49 percent are enthusiastic. McCain has to get Republicans to where Democrats are this year. In Obama's words, "Fired up; ready to go!"
Item 4: Unite the Republican Party.
There's been a lot of talk about how divided the Democrats were between Hillary Rodham Clinton's supporters and Obama's supporters. Well, guess what? Republicans are just as divided.
The percentage of Democrats who say they would rather have seen their party nominate Clinton: 37. The percentage of Republicans who would like to see their party nominate someone other than McCain: 38.
The Democratic convention was a sustained effort to reconcile differences within the party and pull together behind the nominee. Republicans have to make an effort just as big.
Republican convention speakers have to be very careful about trying to insinuate that Obama is somehow "foreign" or "unpatriotic." That could backfire badly. When asked which candidate "shares your values," Obama has the edge over McCain, 50 percent to 43 percent.
