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POLITICAL PULSE
Polls Show Competing Bounces
McCain Rallies GOP Base Yet Obama Attracts Independents
We had two huge political stories last week. First, Democrats finally reconciled after a bitter primary split and rallied around Barack Obama at their convention in Denver. On the Republican side, John McCain made a game-changing move with his surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
So what was the impact on voters? Very little, apparently.
Just before the Democratic convention, a CNN/Opinion Research poll found a dead heat nationwide: Obama, 47 percent; McCain, 47 percent. Where does the race stand now? In interviews over the weekend -- after the Democratic convention and the announcement of McCain's VP choice -- Obama was at 49 percent, McCain at 48 percent.
Could it be that voters were not paying attention? That's unlikely. The Democratic convention drew huge audiences, particularly on Thursday night when Obama delivered his acceptance speech in front of nearly 80,000 supporters.
There were two competing bounces: one for McCain among Republicans, the other among Obama among independents. The net effect was that they canceled each other out.
Nevertheless, a convention bounce that small -- 2 points -- is unusual. The average convention bounce from 1980 through 2004 has been 8 points. Still, a negligible bounce is not unprecedented. Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry got no bounce from his convention and President Bush gained only 2 points. The biggest convention bounces on record? For the Democrats, Bill Clinton in 1992 (16 points). For the Republicans, Ronald Reagan in 1980 (13 points). Both Clinton and Reagan were challenging the incumbent party in years when there was an overwhelming desire for change -- just as there is now. That makes Obama's small bounce all the more puzzling.
By every other measure, the Democratic convention looks like a striking success. The number of Democrats who think that their party is united jumped from 29 percent to 53 percent. And 64 percent of voters rated Obama's acceptance speech "excellent" or "good," making it the highest-rated presidential acceptance speech since 1996. In 2000 and 2004, just over half of respondents gave "excellent" or "good" ratings to the nominees.
This year, by 51 percent to 32 percent, voters said that the Democratic convention would make them more likely to vote for Obama. But it looks as if almost all of the 51 percent were already planning to vote for him.
Of course, McCain's naming of Palin was intended to step on Obama's convention bounce. Did it? The public's initial response to the Palin choice was mildly favorable: 52 percent rate her an "excellent" or "pretty good" choice for vice president. That's very similar to the reaction to Obama's choice of Sen. Joseph Biden, which 54 percent of respondents called "excellent" or "pretty good."
On the other hand, just 45 percent of Americans said that Palin is qualified to be president -- only the second time in recent years that most Americans considered a vice presidential nominee unqualified to sit in the Oval Office. The other nominee was Republican Dan Quayle in 1988. In contrast, 63 percent of respondents said that Biden is qualified for the presidency.
If McCain was going after the women's vote by putting Palin on the ticket, he failed. Instead, women's support for Obama rose a bit, from 50 percent to 53 percent. Men have a more favorable opinion of Palin than women do.
The Palin nomination has paid off in a different way: It has rallied the Republican base. GOP loyalists, who have never been entirely happy with McCain, are now solidly behind him. A week ago, Republicans favored McCain 85 percent to 11 percent. Now, they back him McCain 93 percent to 5 percent.
Obama's standing among Democrats has remained constant -- at 86 percent. The Democratic convention did give Obama a bounce among independents: His support jumped 10 points.
So there were two competing bounces: one for McCain among Republicans, the other among Obama among independents. The net effect was that they canceled each other out. It's still a neck-and-neck race.
