POLITICS

Enthusiasm Gap

Just one-third of John McCain's supporters say they are fired up.

by William Schneider

Sat. Jun 21, 2008


An unpopular president. An un-pop-ular war. A bad economy. The 2008 presidential election should not even be close. Yet four national polls taken this month all show a tight race. The average: Democrat Barack Obama, 47 percent; Republican John McCain, 43 percent.

In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, President Bush's job-approval rating is just 32 percent. Shouldn't the Republican president be dragging the presumptive Republican nominee down with him? Right now, 16 percent of respondents disapprove of Bush but support McCain. Obama is courting these voters: "There are many words to describe John McCain's attempt to pass off his embrace of George Bush's policies as bipartisan and new, but 'change' is not one of them," Obama said when he clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

Is Obama having trouble getting the support of white voters? Most white respondents say they do not intend to vote for Obama, but the last Democrat to win a majority of white voters was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Forty-two percent of white voters support Obama. John Kerry got 41 percent of their votes; Al Gore, 42 percent; Bill Clinton, 43 percent; Michael Dukakis, 40 percent.

In other words, Obama is not doing any worse among white voters than other Democratic nominees have done, suggesting that racism is not the problem. Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry all lost. Clinton, in three-way races, won twice without a majority of white voters. Obama needs to do better than his predecessors.

Voters have not yet focused on the issues. Both Obama and McCain locked up their party's nomination largely because of personal qualities: Obama's vision, McCain's life story. Issues didn't matter much because both candidates were competing with others in their own party.

But now, asked whether the candidates' stands on issues or their leadership skills and vision are most important, voters in the CNN poll split. Those who said that personal qualities are more important preferred McCain, even though Obama is supposed to be the rock star of this campaign. "I don't seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need," McCain said on the final primary night. "I seek the office with the humility of a man who cannot forget my country saved me."

Among those who said that issues are more important, Obama led by more than 20 points. The economy is the big issue, and Obama does have the edge over McCain there. But it's a fairly narrow lead (50 percent to 44 percent), and it appears to be driven mostly by his party. In an April New York Times/CBS News poll, the Democratic Party had a 2-1 lead over the GOP on managing the economy (56 percent to 28 percent).

"There will be a very clear choice in this election," Obama declared last week. "John McCain will dust off the old political playbook that George Bush used in the last two elections and the disastrous tax policies that have failed the American people. I am running to lead this country in a new direction." As the Democratic standard-bearer, Obama can say that more convincingly than McCain can.

Democrats know that the issues are on their side. As a result, the morale gap in this campaign is huge. Obama supporters are, as the candidate likes to put it, "Fired up! Ready to go!" Two-thirds of Obama's supporters say they are "extremely enthusiastic" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for president this year. McCain's supporters? Just one-third say they are fired up.

Four years ago, Bush supporters and Kerry supporters shared almost equal enthusiasm. Everybody was fired up.

After nearly eight years of the Bush presidency, Republicans have plenty of reasons to be demoralized. Look at expectations. Most voters say that Obama is likely to win in November (53 percent to 43 percent in the CNN poll). Look at the upcoming congressional elections. Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent). In the summer of 2006, Democrats were 6 points ahead. They went on to win a landslide victory in the midterm election.

So are Democrats singing "Happy Days Are Here Again"? They are--nervously, as they wait for the issues to kick in.