Attitudes toward President Bush are powerfully shaping the vote in these five battleground states. Although the job-approval ratings of Bush are low in all five states, the presidential nominee of his Republican Party, John McCain, remains competitive because in each state he is running better among voters who approve of Bush than Barack Obama is among the voters who disapprove of Bush.
Percentage who approve or disapprove of how Bush is handling his job as president
Approve Disapprove Colorado 35% 61% Florida 34% 64% New Mexico 35% 61% Ohio 35% 59% Virginia 39% 56%
Among those who approve of Bush who would vote for ...
McCain Obama Colorado 87% 7% Florida 84% 10% New Mexico 87% 9% Ohio 86% 6% Virginia 81% 10%
Among those who disapprove of Bush who would vote for ...
McCain Obama Colorado 21% 69% Florida 21% 63% New Mexico 14% 73% Ohio 15% 67% Virginia 24% 64%
SOURCE: Telephone survey of approximately 400 registered voters in each state was conducted by FD for Allstate/National Journal, September 11-15; margin of error: +/-4.9 percentage points
This article appears in the Sep. 20, 2008, edition of National Journal.