POLITICS

New Mexico: The Barometer

Hispanics with deep roots could be critical to winning a state with a strong penchant for picking a winner.

by James A. Barnes

Saturday, July 26, 2008


Special SeriesSwing StatesThis is part of a series looking at the swing states likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election.

• Graphic: The Flip-Flopper
• New Mexico's Almanac Profile
• Read the Entire Series

Since becoming a state in 1912, New Mexico has voted for the winning presidential nominee in every election save two--1976, when it backed Republican incumbent Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter, and 2000, when by a mere 366 votes it sided with Democrat Al Gore over George W. Bush. In the 2004 White House sweepstakes, the self-proclaimed Land of Enchantment was one of only two states that flipped into the Republican column.

As a senator from a neighboring Western state, presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain can hardly afford to let New Mexico flip back and deliver its five electoral votes to Barack Obama.

But both nominees face challenges in the state. And the partisan patterns of previous races don't assure either of success.

Critical to McCain's prospects in New Mexico will be his ability to attract a significant share of the Hispanic vote, as President Bush did four years ago when he captured 44 percent of that voting bloc on his way to narrowly carrying the state.

In recent remarks to the National Council of La Raza, McCain highlighted his work on comprehensive immigration legislation with a Democratic icon, Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. But New Mexico's Hispanics are not focused solely on liberalized immigration laws; many of their families put down roots long before statehood. And Republicans have had some success appealing to Hispanics by taking conservative stands on social issues and national security.

In a television spot that the McCain campaign aired early this month in New Mexico--as well as in Colorado and Nevada, which also have significant Hispanic populations--the former prisoner of war plays to the patriotic and immigration interests of this key voting bloc. The ad replays McCain's remarks during a GOP presidential debate last year: "When you go to Iraq or Afghanistan today, you're going to see a whole lot of people who are of Hispanic background. You're even going to meet some of the few thousand that are still green-card holders who are not even citizens of this country, who love this country so much that they're willing to risk their lives in its service in order to accelerate their path to citizenship and enjoy the bountiful, blessed nation."

Yet, in a recent press conference, the state's leading Hispanic, Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson, predicted that Obama will carry the state narrowly, even though he lost its Democratic primary to Hillary Rodham Clinton. According to the Associated Press, Richardson, who endorsed Obama after dropping out of the race for the Democratic nomination, said that the nominee's biggest challenge in New Mexico will be to perform well in the 2nd Congressional District, which covers more or less the bottom half of the state. Bush won 58 percent of the vote there in 2004.

Indeed, Bush turned New Mexico red four years ago in large part because his campaign was able to boost the Republican vote in the rural areas and small towns in its southeastern area, which leans conservative and is referred to as "Little Texas." McCain could be helped by the fact that the district's popular three-term Republican congressman, Steve Pearce, is running for the Senate.

Richardson said that Obama needs to run well in the southern counties of Dona Ana and Grant, which John Kerry carried in 2004, as well in Valencia, which is just south of Albuquerque. Dona Ana, the county with the second-largest population, is home to New Mexico State University in Las Cruces and, along with Valencia, has a significant concentration of Hispanic voters.

Another key battleground will be the largest county, Bernalillo, which includes Albuquerque, as well as the booming exurbs to its north in Sandoval County, the fastest-growing area in the state. (From 2000 to 2007, its population increased more than 30 percent.)

In 2004, Kerry boosted the Democratic performance in the urban centers in Bernalillo and next door in Santa Fe County, a traditional Democratic stronghold. But as impressive as that was, those increases couldn't offset Bush's gains in the rest of the state.

Republicans contend that McCain will be able to compete for swing votes in Bernalillo more effectively than Bush did in 2004. "The biggest difference between Bush and McCain could be in the Albuquerque area, because of his strength among independent voters," said Jay McCleskey, the Southwest regional political director for the Republican National Committee.

Ryan Morris and Reuben Dalke/National Journal

But according to a Brookings Institution study that looked at population trends in the Mountain West, the Albuquerque-Santa Fe area has experienced an influx of well-educated workers, the sort of voters with whom Obama did well during the primary season.

"We've got a lot of Southern California here now. And they tend to perform Democratically," said Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who initially endorsed Richardson in the presidential race.

But Chavez, a Democrat who now supports Obama, is concerned that his party's nominee needs a broader appeal to carry New Mexico. "The real question in my mind is whether Senator Obama is going to be able to capture Hispanics by a significant margin," Chavez said. "That's a big 'if,' because he's clearly an urbanite."

In the last presidential election, about one-third of New Mexico's voters were Hispanic, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. And many of those Hispanics live in small towns or rural areas.

Chavez noted that when Obama campaigned in late June at a Flying Star coffeehouse in Albuquerque, he wasn't reaching out to the Hispanics who could decide whether he carries the state. The low-key, roundtable-style discussion was aimed at working women. It included a discussion of health care benefits but featured upscale women, such as Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who initially backed Clinton, and the governor's wife, Barbara Richardson.

"[Obama] walked into the Flying Star and did an event with the latte crowd," Chavez said. The mayor said Obama needed to "get outside Albuquerque" to stump for Hispanic votes and predicted that he will have to do better than Kerry with that voting bloc if he is to win the state. Chavez added that Obama probably has the advantage in New Mexico but that among many Hispanics the Democratic nominee "has not made the case yet."

In an effort to connect with Hispanics, the Obama campaign this week released a Spanish-language radio advertisement titled "Bootstraps," which in addition to talking about immigration mentions Obama's foreign-born father and the candidate's modest upbringing as a way of trying to connect with the work ethic and fairly conservative values of this community.

"Some people have power and connections," the ad says, "but most of us have to make our own way through life." It goes on to note that Obama worked on welfare reform and "stood with us for immigration reform and spoke out for our veterans." The spot closes: "It's time we had a president who understands we all deserve a chance to make our own way." The spot will air in New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.

"What this ad shows is that Barack Obama has not only stood with us, on immigration or veterans, he is one of us," said Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif. He told reporters that the spot will appeal to Hispanics and remind them that a President Obama "will be someone who can relate to our values and experiences from birth."

Hispanics aren't the only traditionally Democratic group that Republicans have set their sights on in New Mexico. Another is American Indians, who are concentrated in the northwestern part of the state. Bush did very well in San Juan County, in the state's northwestern tip. And much of his strength there came from voters who work in the oil and mining industries.

Overall in 2004, Kerry won the state's American Indian vote, 65 percent to 28 percent for Bush. Native Americans were 7 percent of the electorate, according to the exit poll.

McCain has worked on American Indian issues more than most Republicans. And although the media markets of his state of Arizona and New Mexico do not overlap, some of those states' reservations are adjacent--a fact that GOP operatives hope will give McCain traction with American Indians in the Land of Enchantment.

"He's uniquely positioned as a Republican running for president to reach out and do well among Native American voters," RNC Southwest Director McCleskey said. "And that's something that eats into the Democratic base."

Republicans have never won in New Mexico by merely relying on traditional partisan patterns. Democrats continue to hold a significant advantage in party registration, but many outside the state's urban centers are conservative and can swing to the GOP.

At the same time, New Mexico's Republicans went through a hard-fought Senate primary in which Pearce, a conservative, defeated the more moderate Rep. Heather Wilson, who was endorsed by outgoing Sen. Pete Domenici, long the dominant GOP figure in the state. Domenici's would-be Republican successor, Pearce, recently fired his campaign manager. In most polls, Pearce is significantly trailing the Democrats' Senate nominee, five-term Rep. Tom Udall, who represents the northern part of the state.

"The GOP is weak organizationally here," Albuquerque Mayor Chavez said. "If McCain can be a quasi-change or non-status-quo candidate, that would stand him in good stead here."

This is the sixth in a series of articles taking a close look at swing states likely to determine the outcome of this year's presidential election. Next week: Pennsylvania.

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