POLITICS
Ohio: 2006 All Over Again?
Barack Obama is advised to copy the campaigns of Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown.
On Election Night 2004, as returns from Ohio began pouring in, Democrats turned giddy. In the close presidential contest, the Buckeye State was playing a decisive role--and it appeared to be going their way.
The Democrats' euphoria was prompted by reports that their Ohio strategy of maximizing voter turnout in their urban strongholds had swamped President Bush and would enable Democratic challenger John Kerry to win the state's 20 electoral votes--a victory that would carry him to the White House. After all, no Republican presidential candidate has prevailed without carrying Ohio.
But the Democrats' glee proved short-lived. Bush's re-election campaign, using sophisticated voter identification and turnout techniques in suburban and exurban Ohio, had greatly boosted the GOP's own numbers at the polls. The incumbent gained enough of a cushion to overcome the Democrats' record-breaking surge in urban areas. Bush went on to carry Ohio by fewer than 120,000 votes out of more than 5.6 million cast.
"If you had told me the [Democratic] margin in the urban counties the day before the election, I would have lit a victory cigar," says Jim Ruvolo, a former state Democratic Party chairman who headed Kerry's Ohio campaign. "The ironic thing is that John Kerry took more votes for president than anybody in Ohio history, except for one person. Unfortunately, it was the one he was running against."
Seared by that experience, Ohio Democrats are determined to act on what they say they have learned from their painful, razor-thin 2004 defeat. Interviews with party operatives and veteran strategists reveal a consensus that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama must rewrite the political playbook and jettison Kerry's game plan if he is to prevail in Ohio over his Republican counterpart, John McCain.
These Democrats have concluded that Obama must model his campaign on those waged in 2006 by two Democratic congressmen: Sherrod Brown, who defeated two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine; and Ted Strickland, who overwhelmingly prevailed in his gubernatorial campaign, winning more than 60 percent of the vote.
In engineering a stunning political turnabout for their party, Brown and Strickland clearly benefited from an abysmal climate for Republicans. Bush's dreadful job-approval rating and a scandal involving retiring Republican Gov. Bob Taft, who had pleaded no contest to ethics charges in 2005, weighed GOP candidates down. At the same time, Ohio's economy had tanked as factories closed and plants moved abroad. More than 200,000 manufacturing jobs disappeared from the state between 2000 and 2006.
It's difficult to imagine Ohio's climate ever being more favorable to Democratic candidates than it was then. So, can Obama realistically hope to replicate the road map to victory engineered by Brown and Strickland?
Beyond driving up turnout among African-Americans and young voters, as Kerry did, Obama must do far better than Kerry in suburban and exurban areas--and he must attract more votes in rural areas, where Bush racked up big numbers. Obama doesn't have to prevail in these places, veteran campaign observers say, but he must not let McCain crush him there.
"We got our clock cleaned in exurban areas last time," said a Democratic strategist who worked on the 2004 presidential race. "This guy [Obama] has to take advantage of the growing suburban/exurban population in Ohio--the suburbs outside Columbus, Cleveland, and Dayton. He has to do much better than John Kerry did in those areas. There are rising high-income suburbs, [such as those] ... in and around the Cleveland area, that we need to fare well in."
Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, says that Obama must narrow the losses in places where Kerry wiped out. "The Kerry folks spent huge amounts of time and money in 16 counties. And they did great in those 16 counties, but because they ignored the rest of the state, the Republicans seized upon that weakness," he said. "Turnout was great in the city of Cincinnati, but we were lucky to find a couple of bucks to open up a headquarters 10 miles away in Clermont County. [In southwestern Ohio in] Butler County, Miami County, Darke County, Preble County, Republicans rolled up huge numbers."
Veteran Democratic strategist Jerry Austin sounds the same theme: "These small counties are not places you need to win, but you do need to cut down the margin. If I were [advising Obama], I would say he should make appearances in big counties, which you have to do to get the troops all riled up. But I also would spend an appreciable amount of time in these [smaller] counties."
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's 10-point victory over Obama in Ohio's Democratic presidential primary this March underscored Obama's need to connect better with white working-class voters. Ed Brookover, a veteran GOP strategist who has served as campaign director for all three Republican national committees, said the primary showed that "it will take an effort for Obama to connect to rural voters and lunch-pail Democrats."
That lesson is not lost on Brookover's fellow Republicans. An adviser to the McCain campaign said, "Look at where Hillary did well: From the northeastern corner down the border where West Virginia juts up into the state. Those were her 70 percent margins.... Those voters are not entirely convinced that Barack Obama is their candidate."
Obama is clearly aware of these challenges. He recently made a high-profile visit to Zanesville--a town of just over 25,000 people in Muskingum County, 50 miles east of Columbus, the state capital. Zanesville was not kind to Kerry. Bush won more than 57 percent of its votes in 2004. But Democrat Brown won there in his Senate race two years later, attracting more than 55 percent of the vote.
"Although it is in eastern Ohio, Zanesville is considered part of Appalachia. It's not a community that Democrats in the past would have spent early time on," Redfern said, clearly excited that Obama seems to understand the need to make inroads in communities that Republicans have long dominated.
The senator from Illinois has a not-so-secret weapon in his arsenal: Gov. Strickland, who steered Clinton's Ohio campaign during the primary, has enthusiastically endorsed Obama. The governor, an ordained Methodist minister who easily connects with rural voters, carried 72 of Ohio's 88 counties, compared with Kerry's 16. Today, Strickland is making his formidable political organization available to Obama.
Aaron Pickrell, who as campaign manager helped guide Strickland to his lopsided win two years ago, has signed up to run Obama's Buckeye campaign. In a conference call with reporters last month, Strickland predicted that Obama will win Ohio because the race will revolve around bread-and-butter economic issues--the same ones that Strickland championed in becoming the first Democrat elected governor in 20 years.
"Senator Obama is doing what he needs to do. What is that? He's talking about the economy," Strickland said. "I am going to be excited to accompany Senator Obama to the southern and southeastern and small towns of Ohio because when you compare his economic [agenda] with Senator McCain, I believe the people of Ohio will vote their own economic interests and will support him."
Strickland all but dismissed McCain's recent trip to Youngstown, about 75 miles southeast of Cleveland in Mahoning County. The county has lost more than 18,000 factory jobs in the past decade. "I am puzzled," Strickland said. "I have represented that county when I was in the Congress. And I cannot imagine why Senator McCain could hope to gain political advantage [there]. It is an area that has been devastated by the Bush administration's policies and ... I really see nothing in Senator McCain's economic policies that would have an appeal to the folks in these distressed Ohio communities."
Indeed, Kerry carried more than 62 percent of Youngstown's votes, and Strickland prevailed with nearly 76 percent. "In spite of Senator McCain's personal appeal as a war hero ... I think the fact that he is, for all practical purposes, committed to pursuing George Bush's economic policies will keep him from gaining any significant foothold in Ohio," Strickland said.
But a senior McCain campaign adviser countered that the Arizonan "is a different kind of Republican.... He looked people in the eye and promised to work with them. He talked about [policies] to retain jobs and bring new jobs to the area. He viscerally understands that people are hurting."
Alex Triantafilou, Hamilton County's Republican Party chairman, agreed. "I reject what the governor said about Senator McCain's policies," he said. "The last thing we need is an increase in taxes--John McCain has the right economic policy.... When voters stop and think that Obama has a more liberal voting record than Ted Kennedy--that will not sell well."
Even so, as long as the presidential debate centers on Ohio's struggling economy, Democrats are convinced that they have the advantage. Social issues are not driving the electorate this year, they note. And they won't have to contend with anything on the Ohio ballot like the anti-gay-marriage amendment that helped Bush by boosting evangelical turnout in 2004.
Ruvolo, who was Sen. Clinton's delegate coordinator in Ohio, said that Obama should make the most of these dynamics. "He has to concentrate on getting those folks back voting their pocketbooks, as opposed to values, security, or the other issues that George Bush was able to exploit."
Several Democratic strategists urged Obama to engage in retail politicking in Ohio. David Wilhelm, campaign manager for Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton in 1992, sent Clinton and his running mate, Al Gore, on a bus trip into the heartland to connect with swing voters.
"Whether [Obama] ultimately needs to get on a bus or not--frankly, it wouldn't be a bad idea--but the main thing about the bus trip is where that first bus trip went," Wilhelm said, noting that it traversed eastern, central, and southwestern Ohio. "[Bill] Clinton laid a marker down in 1992 that he was going to compete on turf that the Republicans felt was their own."
Democratic strategist Austin agrees. "Ohio is a place where you need to spend time, and Obama needs to spend even more time, because he didn't spend much time here in the primary," he said. "As we say in Ohio, 'When you go duck hunting, you go where the ducks are.' He has to go to those places--the places that John Kerry never went."
This is the fourth in a series of articles taking a close look at swing states likely to determine the outcome of this year's presidential election. Next week: Colorado.

This is part of a series looking at the swing states likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election.