POLITICS

Iowa: Where Politics Is Personal

The Hawkeye State was one of only two to switch to the GOP column in 2004; the Republican nominee and the state have never shown much fondness for each other.

by James A. Barnes

Saturday, June 21, 2008


On May 20, when Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois returned to Iowa on the night of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, it was a victory lap of sorts. Thanks to his win in Oregon, Obama finally had a majority of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. So he had returned to the state where his first-place finish in the January 3 caucuses launched him toward his party's presidential nomination.

Speaking beneath the evening sky in Des Moines to a crowd of some 7,500 backers, Obama celebrated his delegate-count milestone and kicked off his general election campaign against the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. But Obama also devoted a good chunk of his remarks to extolling his Iowa supporters.

"Fifteen months ago, in the depths of winter, it was in this great state where we took the first steps of an unlikely journey to change America," Obama declared. At times, the skeptics, cynics, and Washington pundits "all but counted us out," he recalled, "but the people of Iowa had a different idea."

As Obama begins trying to flip Iowa--the only state other than New Mexico that switched from the Democratic to the Republican column in the 2004 presidential election--his personal connection to the state and the surge in Democratic voter registration fueled by the record-breaking attendance at the party's presidential caucuses are two key factors in his favor.

Obama's Hawkeye following has been built and sustained by a top-flight political organization that had him crisscrossing the state before the caucuses. (See box.) And even after caucus night, Obama's Iowa apparatus never stopped humming; the next challenge was to fight supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for delegates in subsequent county and congressional district conventions. "He has an organization that is fine-tuned and that will be a big advantage in the fall," predicts Obama adviser John Norris, a veteran Iowa Democratic Party strategist.

As one of the first two constituencies in the presidential nominating contest, Iowans understand their unique role as potential kingmakers--and most relish it. Many caucus-goers take pride in having given Obama his extraordinary first boost. And although rank-and-file Democrats hungry to win back the White House are more passionate about Obama than their independent neighbors tend to be, his triumph in the caucuses may work in his favor when independents go to the polls in November.

"Because Iowans have a relationship [with Obama] they're less likely to buy into the negative imaging attacks that McCain and, especially, the [independent] '527s' will do in Iowa," Norris said. "Iowans are going to say, 'This guy is not that; he won the caucuses.' "

In contrast, Iowa has never exhibited a particular fondness for McCain. That's not entirely for lack of effort on his part. Although he skipped the Iowa caucuses in his 2000 presidential run, McCain has stumped in the state during this cycle and has paid his respects to its political rituals, including attending the state fair in the scorching heat of August 2006 and '07.

But the Arizonan didn't camp out in the state or run television advertising in the run-up to the GOP caucuses. He made it clear that he was instead tying his political fortunes to the January 8 New Hampshire primary, the other nominating contest that competes for the early attention of presidential candidates. McCain finished fourth in Iowa, behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and even former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, whose campaign style could charitably be described as unhurried. McCain shuttered his Iowa campaign office in late February and didn't open another until June 13.

For the past month or so, in order to keep the state in play, McCain has been engaging in catch-up and using a television-ad buy that his Iowa campaign chairman, Dave Roederer, characterized as "medium to heavy," while the Obama campaign has been dark. The ads were halted during the state's recent flooding, but Roederer said he expected them to resume soon.

If his campaign has sometimes created the impression that McCain is indifferent to Iowa, his opposition to popular subsidies at times has made him seem downright hostile to the state's interests.

In May, McCain was one of 11 co-sponsors of legislation introduced by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, calling for a freeze in the corn-based ethanol mandate in the renewable-fuels standard, which requires that refiners use 15 billion gallons of ethanol a year by 2015. Proponents of the Hutchison bill contend that increased ethanol production is raising food prices. But Iowa produces about one-quarter of the nation's ethanol, and the development of that industry is viewed as almost a godsend in a state seeking to diversify its economy and keep its young workers.

Ryan Morris and Reuben Dalke/National Journal

In opening a town hall meeting in Des Moines last month, McCain attacked another economic boon to the state, the farm bill with its many crop supports. Playing his favorite role of maverick, the Arizonan told Iowans that if he were president he'd veto the measure.

"McCain, in almost an anti-candidate candidate way, disses ethanol and the farm bill," said veteran Hawkeye GOP strategist Doug Gross. "I'm sure that works in some places. I'm just not sure about Iowa."

When President Bush very narrowly carried Iowa in 2004--by just 10,059 votes out of almost 1.5 million cast--he did so mainly by getting a large Republican vote in the state's western counties, home to many conservative rural voters, and doing well enough in the suburbs and exurbs of Des Moines to counter the Democratic margins in the state's largest city. But Democrats' new registration edge, coupled with conservatives' lingering suspicions about McCain because of his occasional forays into bipartisanship--especially on immigration, campaign finance regulations, and judicial nominations--means that the GOP standard-bearer is going to have to do well among Iowa's independents, who form a plurality of its electorate.

"If this comes down to all the Republicans showing up and all the Democrats showing up, the Democrats are going to win," Roederer said.

A key battleground for the votes of independents may lie in the precincts surrounding Des Moines, especially Dallas County, which is due west of the city and is the state's fastest-growing county. In 2004, Bush doubled his margin of victory there over his showing in 2000 and thus offset the increase in turnout for the Democratic nominee, John Kerry, in Linn County, home to the Democratic stronghold of Cedar Rapids.

"Suburbs are becoming more and more important," Roederer said. Although the state's population is flat, "the shifting that's going on" from rural areas to urban edges "is pretty dramatic."

In the crucial turf around Des Moines and other Iowa cities, Obama needs to attract the support of the suburban women who backed Clinton but have yet to climb aboard his bandwagon. "There are a number who say they would seriously consider McCain, which is stunning to me," said veteran Iowa Democratic operative JoDee Winterhof, who worked for Clinton's campaign.

But the Iowa GOP is also beset by some internal frictions. Conservatives have been considering a move to purge state party Chairman Stu Iverson and Iowa Republican National Committeeman Steve Roberts because they are viewed as too moderate. Iverson initially supported the presidential aspirations of an abortion-rights supporter, former New York Gov. George Pataki. Roberts, who lives in the Des Moines area, has been criticized on the right for not speaking out against a local judge who ruled in favor of gay marriage.

But such intraparty squabbles are just the kind of fights that alienate suburban independents. Said Obama adviser Norris, "I think that vote is up for grabs and will be telling for the outcome in Iowa."

This is the first in a series of articles taking a close look at the swing states likely to determine the outcome of this year's presidential election. Next week: Michigan.

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