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The Democratic presidential race may be coming down to a test of math versus momentum. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is the numbers guy, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York believes she’s on a roll after her victory in the Pennsylvania primary. But math you can calculate; momentum you can’t.

The Obama campaign projects that Clinton would have to win upwards of 70 percent of the delegates at stake in the remaining eight primaries—Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota—and the Guam caucuses to pull even with Obama in the overall pledged-delegate count. Barring a complete collapse by Obama, that’s unlikely to happen. Just to shave Obama’s lead in pledged delegates from 161 to 100, Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters during a conference call the day after the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton would have to win 57 percent of the remaining delegates up for grabs. That is a daunting task because Obama is favored in North Carolina and Oregon and, based on the results of previous contests, is expected to fare well in Montana, South Dakota, and Guam.

POLITICSMatching Funds, R.I.P.James A. BarnesWhen Barack Obama recently suggested that his Internet-driven fundraising machine, which can harvest tens of millions of dollars in small donations in a single month, might render public financing of presidential elections obsolete, most observers thought that he was talking about doing without a federal check in the fall general election campaign, should he wage one. But the success that he and other presidential contenders have had in raising money online just for the nomination contests, and the growing costs of running in early caucus and primary states, may also relegate to the political Ice Age the matching funds that [more...]

“We continue to think pledged delegates is the most important factor here,” said Plouffe, reflecting the Obama campaign’s sentiment, shared by many in the party, that the uncommitted superdelegates should coalesce behind the candidate who has the lead in pledged delegates when the primaries and caucuses end on June 3. “We don’t believe the structure of the race is going to change fundamentally,” Plouffe said.

Not surprisingly, the Clinton campaign found far more significance in the results of the Keystone State’s vote during its own conference call with reporters less than four hours after Plouffe had concluded his analysis. To the Clintonites, their candidate’s primary victory demonstrated yet again that she is more likely to carry the large swing states that will be critical for the Democratic nominee’s chances in the November election.

As Clinton’s top Pennsylvania booster, Gov. Ed Rendell, pointed out how she had overcome Obama’s hefty spending advantage in the state, he chided the media for “incredibly underestimating the impact” of her success. “This was an awesome victory,” Rendell declared. “It has to be, if you’re a superdelegate, dynamic-changing.”

Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania was sweeping. She captured 60 of the state’s 67 counties, and carried 49 of them with at least 60 percent of the vote. She won parts of old Pennsylvania and new Pennsylvania. Clinton swamped Obama in blue-collar, declining metropolitan areas such as Johnstown and Scranton, but she also beat him handily in rapidly growing exurban counties such as Pike and Monroe that have become distant bedroom communities of New York City, as well as in Adams, Franklin, and York, which have become virtual extensions of the Baltimore-Washington corridor. She likewise bested Obama in rural counties and even in some suburbs around Philadelphia that were once seen as friendly territory for him.

Obama’s showing was a little cramped. He achieved majorities in only seven counties: Philadelphia, with its large African-American population; Centre and Union, home to Penn State and Bucknell universities, respectively, and the only two counties in the state where the percentage of registered Democrats who are 18 to 34 years old exceeds the percentage who are 65 or older; Dauphin, where the state capital of Harrisburg is located, and Delaware, in the inner suburbs of Philadelphia, both of which have relatively high African-American populations; Chester, with its exurbs and suburbs of Philadelphia; and Lancaster, which tends to vote solidly Republican in general elections.

Not many showdown contests remain where she can trounce Obama.

Pennsylvania “was a demonstration that the tide is turning, the wind is at her back, and the money is coming in,” added Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, another top Clinton surrogate. And indeed, within 24 hours of Clinton’s victory on Tuesday, her campaign reported that it was on track to raise $10 million in online contributions.

But one challenge now confronting Clinton is that the primary and caucus calendar is running out of big showdown contests that she can realistically expect to win to sustain the kind of psychological momentum that her camp claims Pennsylvania has given her. “I don’t know if there are any dramatic victories left for her,” said one Democratic strategist who is neutral in the race.

At the same time, some Democratic operatives aren’t swayed by the Clinton argument that Obama won’t be able to carry big swing states in the general election because he didn’t capture them in the party’s primaries.

“I think she had a really impressive victory,” veteran Democratic presidential strategist Tad Devine said of Clinton’s performance in Pennsylvania. “As for Obama not being able to win these places in a general election, I don’t subscribe to that.”

Devine, who played a senior role in Al Gore’s 2000 campaign and John Kerry’s White House run in 2004, said he thought that Obama could do “as well or better” in Pennsylvania than either of those two Democratic nominees. And if Obama simply prevails in the remaining contests where he’s expected to do well, Devine predicted that the superdelegates will not shun him.

“I don’t think people are going to think they’re nominating someone who is a loser, but someone who has a lot more growth potential,” Devine said. “He just needs to go out and do what he has to do and win this nomination.”