The Art of Dumb Decisions
We all like to consider ourselves educated, aware, well-informed, and -- hopefully -- well-meaning. No doubt appointees of the Obama administration fall into this camp. But if history and human nature are any guides, the newest crop of Decision Makers will make its fair share of boneheaded calls. Why? Because people have a tendency not to know what they don't know.
"The biggest problem is overconfidence," says Richard Thaler, a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago. "A lot of research [shows] that people think they know more than they do." If an individual says something is 90 percent likely to occur, it will happen about 70 percent of the time, at best, Thaler says. Research also indicates that older, more "experienced" decision makers tend to shoot from the hip most often.
And then there is the "planning fallacy." People tend to be overly optimistic about how long a task will take. Think no further than your last home contractor. "If you ask somebody for worst-case timing, they answer right about 50 percent of time," Thaler says. -- Randy Barrett
What Took So Long?
The Food and Drug Administration has finally debarred a drug researcher with a bogus medical degree -- five years after she was convicted of falsifying documents. In early 2004, Mary Sawaya was convicted of submitting a fake Florida medical license to the sponsor of a clinical drug trial, for which she was an investigator. When that document was about to expire, Sawaya once again proffered a fraudulent license with a new expiration date. She pleaded guilty. According to a Web search, Sawaya now works for a dermatology company in Florida. It wasn't until June 12 of this year that the FDA got around to banning her from all drug research studies. -- Randy Barrett
Murmurs
Psst! Who's weeding? White House associate chef Sam Kass told reporters that Michelle Obama's organic garden on the South Lawn gets a "big weeding" once a week. Kass, who's in charge of it, said he weeds along with a pastry chef and "volunteers" from the White House staff. A spokeswoman for the first lady declined to reveal who weeds.... Democratic lobbyists are grumbling that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are asking them for $5,000 in personal money to attend the committees' annual all-day fundraising conference on June 19 at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in D.C., but aren't allowing the lobbyists to attend the fundraiser dinner the following evening with President Obama. Why? Because Obama doesn't want the DSCC and the DCCC to collect money from lobbyists and political action committees for the dinner. "Have you been looking at the absurdity of this?" one irked lobbyist asked. "Lobbyists are clean enough to contribute and attend the Friday seminar but not the dinner? What is the point? Is it basically the non-proximity to the president? Or is it about the money? If it's the latter, they're still asking. If it's the former, what is he afraid of?"... Democratic uber-fundraiser and lobbyist Tony Podesta is continuing his monthly money bashes to fill members' campaign coffers. According to a recent e-mail invitation, from late June through July, Podesta is slated to hold at least seven evening fundraisers -- which are often at his home -- for members, including a June 25 soiree for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada....
Vital Statistics
46
Percentage of Decision Makers holding Ivy League graduate degrees at Treasury, the highest of any department -- National Journal
Know Your Administration
We've spent the last month learning a lot about hundreds of Obama administration appointees and nominees. They're an interesting bunch with some unusual backgrounds. Take the quiz below and see for yourself.
1. Kevin Spacey played this White House official in the movie Recount.
2. Talk about unpopular causes. This Justice Department lawyer defended John Walker Lindh, also known as the "American Taliban."
3. Which department has the most Decision Makers with Ph.D.s?
4. What? The bridge washed out, the school bus lost its brakes, and Timmy fell down the well? As a child, this nominee for an assistant Labor secretary post appeared in an episode of Lassie.
5. Don't break a hip! This department has the oldest Decision Makers.
6. This Office of Management and Budget nominee had hoped to be running the Washington Nationals by now.
7. In his younger days, he toiled as a switchman, road trainman, and conductor for the Illinois Central Railroad. Now this bureaucrat is a pooh-bah at the Transportation Department.
8. Which one of Obama's cabinet secretaries owned and operated a Dairy Queen, placing him at the top tier of the administration in terms of business experience?
9. Which department has the most Decision Makers from New York state?
10. Keep your pants on! This nominee to head an independent agency was the producer of The Full Monty on Broadway.
11. ABC newscaster Claire Shipman is married to this White House aide. Perhaps we should expect some big scoops soon?
Answers: 1) Ron Klain; 2) Tony West; 3) Energy, with 57 percent; 4) Kathy Martinez; 5) Defense, with an average age of 56; 6) Jeffrey D. Zients; 7) Joseph Szabo; 8) Ken Salazar; 9) Justice, with 50 percent; 10) Rocco Landesman, National Endowment for the Arts; 11) Jay Carney.
This article appeared in the Saturday, June 20, 2009 edition of National Journal.
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