2008 VOTE RATINGS

The Congressional Jigsaw: Polarized Republicans

by Brian Friel and Richard E. Cohen

Saturday, Feb. 28, 2009


2008 Vote RatingsCongressional Jigsaw• Introduction
• Determined Democratic Liberals
• Needy Democratic Moderates

Methods:
• How Vote Ratings Are Done
• Key Vote Descriptions

Charts:
• Senate Ratings
• House Ratings
• Senate Twins
• Senate Odd Couples
• State Delegations In The House
• House's Ideological Caucuses

Previous Vote Ratings:
• 2007 Vote Ratings
• 2006 Vote Ratings
• 2005 Vote Ratings
• 2004 Vote Ratings

• Back To Main Page

In both the House and Senate, defeated and retired GOP members fell disproportionately toward the center of their chambers in NJ's 2008 vote ratings. And numerous Republican moderates also departed after the 2006 election, when Democrats recaptured control of both chambers. The absence of these GOP centrists in 2009 increases Obama's steep challenge in building bipartisanship with the largely conservative Republican conferences that remain.

Of the 15 Republicans nearest to the center of the Senate in the 2008 vote ratings, seven have not returned: Sens. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., and John Warner, R-Va., both of whom retired; Sens. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., Gordon Smith, R-Ore., Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and John Sununu, R-N.H., all of whom lost their re-election bids; and Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., who is still contesting the November election results.

Because the Democrats' Senate majority now stands at 58, two shy of the 60 votes needed to pass most controversial bills, the few remaining GOP moderates have outsized influence. On Obama's recently enacted $787 billion economic stimulus package, the three remaining Republicans closest to the center of the 2008 vote ratings -- Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both R-Maine, and Arlen Specter, R-Pa. -- were able to demand major legislative revisions before they supplied the winning votes.

Collins, for example, took credit for lowering the bill's overall cost and eliminating tens of billions of dollars in "nonstimulative" spending. And Snowe left the door to future bipartisanship open. "At this moment in time in our nation's history, it's crucial that we build a consensus," she told reporters on February 10. "We have to make it right. We have to make it work. We cannot fail."

But GOP leaders rejected the notion that the three moderates had made worthwhile improvements in the measure. "There has been a false choice presented: to either do nothing or accept this bill," said Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., who called the final result "a wasteful, costly bill."

In the House, of course, no Republicans supported Obama's stimulus package. Democrats hold 254 House seats, with three vacancies, well beyond the 218 needed for a majority. Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., the 10th-most-conservative House member in the 2008 ratings, crowed in a statement after the final stimulus vote: "Today's legislation passed without a single Republican vote -- and with seven Democrats crossing the line to join Republicans in bipartisan opposition.... Massive spending and generational debt may have won today, but the American people did not."

To maintain party cohesion, House GOP leaders heavily whipped their rank and file, which has also seen many moderates depart. Among the centrists at the middle of the 2008 vote ratings who did not come back for 2009 were veteran Reps. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn., and James Walsh, R-N.Y., both of whom retired; Reps. Jon Porter, R-Nev., and Christopher Shays, R-Conn., both of whom lost in November; and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, R-Md., who lost his primary.

Interestingly, some of the Republicans who are now closest to the center of the House in the vote ratings were once viewed as more conservative. In 2000, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., ranked as the 164th-most-conservative of that year's 222 House Republicans. But in 2008, she was 195th of the 199 House Republicans. Even more striking was the movement of Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, R-Mo.: She was the 79th-most-conservative in 2000 and the 183rd last year.

After the stimulus vote, House GOP support for future Democratic initiatives is a lingering question. Rep. Michael Castle, R-Del., a longtime spokesman for House GOP moderates, praised Obama and his top aides for doing "a good job in reaching out to Republicans" on the stimulus package in the early days of his presidency. But Castle added, "They fell short by not encouraging the House Democratic leadership to work with Republicans."

Similarly, Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., co-chairman of the moderate Tuesday Group, complained, "There was a lost opportunity because the president had Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi write the bill." Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., the most moderate House Republican in the 2008 vote ratings who is still serving, also said he sees "an opportunity for bipartisanship.... But we need to have outstretched hands from both parties," instead of Democrats closing internal discussions and limiting debate.

On such issues as energy and health care, Kirk added, "If there is a truly bipartisan bill to be written, we moderates need to be there. So far, [Pelosi] won't allow that." In Kirk's view, the supposed decline of GOP moderates has become a perennial and overstated journalistic tale. "After each election, people say that we are extinct," he said, while contending that the Tuesday Group's membership has increased from 19 to 32 since the start of the year.

For their part, House Republican leaders maintain that the surviving members of the minority can work together without necessarily ignoring the views of the shrinking moderate camp. Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence, R-Ind., declared: "Mike Castle and Mike Pence are united by our commitment to fiscal responsibility and reform."

As for making the GOP message resonate in places like New York and New England, Pence acknowledged, "It's a concern. But we will redouble our efforts with Republicans from centrist areas." Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the chief deputy minority whip, said that GOP lawmakers across the nation can represent the views of voters in the Northeast. "There is greater unity among House Republicans, and we want to portray better ideas," he said.

Still, Minority Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va., conceded, "We are under no illusion. We have 178 votes. We get it."