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POLITICS
In Senate, GOP Braces For Cold November
Republicans are in such perilous shape heading toward Election Day that they argue a four-seat loss would count as a "moral victory."
Buoyed by a political climate even more hospitable than the one in which they gained six seats in 2006, Senate Democrats can barely contain their glee at the prospect of expanding their razor-thin majority by five to seven seats.
Senate Republican leaders no longer even try to argue that the Democrats' one-seat majority is in jeopardy or to play down predictions like that of Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer, who boasts that his party will pick up "a whole bunch of seats." Instead, Republicans characterize a four-seat Democratic gain as a "moral victory" for their party. They are focused on holding down their losses and protecting their incumbents.
How did this year's Senate playing field become one of the most lopsided in recent memory? A quartet of important factors--political climate, math, money, and retirements--are all working against the GOP this time.
By any number of measures, the national political climate is extremely hostile to the Republican Party. By a wide margin, voters believe that the country is seriously on the wrong track. And they are not optimistic that the economy will soon improve. Democrats now hold a 13.5-point advantage over the GOP in party identification, according to the cumulative results of Gallup surveys taken in the first six months of this year. Including voters who called themselves independents yet lean toward one party or the other, 52.7 percent of respondents identify themselves as Democrats and 39.2 percent say they are Republicans. Four years ago, the Democrats' ID advantage was just 2.7 points.
Although Congress's job-approval ratings are hovering in the mid-teens--even lower than President Bush's--a majority of voters still say they want the Democrats to keep control of Capitol Hill. Polling data also consistently show that voters have a negative opinion of the Republican Party, stemming from dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, the Bush administration's response to Hurricane Katrina, Bush himself, a feeling among the party's own rank and file that the GOP has lost its way, and the congressional scandals that dominated the 2006 elections. The net effect is a badly damaged Republican brand.
Basic math is also working against Senate Republicans, because they must defend 23 seats compared with the Democrats' 12. (Two of the GOP-held seats will be on the line in special elections in November because of the resignation last December of Mississippi's Trent Lott and the death in June 2007 of Wyoming's Craig Thomas.) Heading toward Election Day, Democrats enjoy a target-rich environment while Republicans have many fewer opportunities to offset losses by flipping Democratic-held seats into their column.
The third factor, money, is traditionally a plus for Republicans--or at least a wash. This time, though, Democrats have an overwhelming advantage: As of June 30, the DSCC had raised $93.3 million for the cycle and had $46.2 million in the bank. The National Republican Senatorial Committee had taken in $58.8 million and had $24.6 million cash-on-hand. The gap is huge even though the NRSC's fundraising has improved in recent months.
Many Republican donors were so down on their party after the 2006 elections that they simply weren't opening their checkbooks. The presidential primary contest, moreover, siphoned off a lot of contributions that might otherwise have gone to the NRSC. Once the nominating process ended and GOP donors started paying attention to the Democrats' legislative agenda, money began to flow again. Even so, Republicans are very unlikely to close the money gap this late in the cycle.
The Democrats' cash advantage means they can afford to play in more races, even those that don't appear especially competitive today, and can spend more money on individual contests. In 2006, the DSCC invested $29.5 million in a comprehensive field operation. The party committee is now building on that effort, targeting 17 states. In addition, the committee has reserved millions of dollars' worth of television advertising time in states with competitive Senate races. The DSCC has even been in a financial position to help its challengers early, airing TV ads in Oregon and Mississippi to keep the Democratic nominees competitive.
The NRSC has been unable to replicate that level of support. As in past cycles, the Senate campaign committee will rely on the flush Republican National Committee, which reported nearly $69 million cash-on-hand as of June 30, to execute a coordinated field operation. Still, the NRSC will certainly be forced to choose among its vulnerable incumbents and open-seat races.
A final factor this year is retirements. One of the basic tenets of campaign politics is that it's always easier to snatch an open seat away from the other party than it is to defeat an incumbent. Five Republican senators are retiring: Wayne Allard of Colorado, Larry Craig of Idaho, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, and John Warner of Virginia. Not a single Democratic senator plans to retire this year.
The GOP retirements have expanded the playing field for Democrats, and three of the five open seats--those in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia--are prime opportunities for Democrats. Allard arguably would have had a difficult race had he chosen to break his term-limits pledge and seek a third term, but Domenici and Warner would have been heavily favored if they had run again.
Republicans seem likely to retain the seat in Nebraska, where former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, who is also a former two-term governor, is running against Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and part-time college instructor who lost a House race in 2006. But Democrats haven't written this race off yet.
The one retirement that might actually benefit Republicans is in Idaho, where Craig's well-documented legal troubles would have made him a prime Democratic target. Today, GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is favored to hold the seat, although he faces an aggressive competitor in former Rep. Larry LaRocco.
Together, these four factors put 10 of the Republicans' Senate seats in play. Democrats contend that an additional four or five could become competitive by fall.
Going, Going, Gone
The GOP's grip is weakest on its open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and on the Alaska seat long occupied by Ted Stevens, now facing a seven-count criminal indictment. The Virginia contest pits former governors--Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore--against each other: Warner's popularity and the state's drift away from its Republican-leaning voting patterns make it almost impossible for the GOP to hold this seat. The Democrat has had tremendous fundraising success, finishing the second quarter with $5.1 million in the bank compared with Gilmore's paltry $116,770. Warner's cash advantage has allowed him to air television ads across the state while Gilmore struggles for voters' attention.
In New Mexico, five-term Rep. Tom Udall, a member of a Democratic family dynasty, is his party's standard-bearer. Three-term Rep. Steve Pearce is the GOP nominee. Udall had a clear path to the nomination; Pearce fought a divisive primary with Rep. Heather Wilson, winning by just 2,914 votes out of 112,992. Being more conservative than Wilson helped Pearce clinch the nomination, but it puts him at a disadvantage in the general election in a state that tilts Democratic. Udall had nearly $2.9 million as of June 30, compared with $532,553 for Pearce, who spent heavily to win the primary. The Democrat has already launched his general election TV advertising. If he takes a sizable early lead, Pearce could have a very difficult time catching up.
Tuesday's federal indictment of Stevens charges him with seven felony counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure reports in order to conceal $250,000 in payments for goods and services from executives of VECO, an oil-field services company. The indictment alleges that, in return, VECO executives asked Stevens for assistance in securing federal grants and contracts. Stevens has denied the charges.
The indictment is the latest chapter in a long-running investigation that has already resulted in the convictions of three state legislators on corruption charges, as well as guilty pleas from two VECO executives and two Alaska-based lobbyists. The federal charges also greatly complicate Stevens's bid for a seventh full term.
Stevens was already considered highly vulnerable heading into the November general election, but the indictment raises doubts about whether he can survive the August 26 GOP primary in which he faces six challengers. Two of them, developer Dave Cuddy and lawyer Vic Vickers, have put personal resources into the race. As of June 30, Cuddy had lent his campaign nearly $177,000, and Vickers reported a $191,000 loan. Vickers has also said he plans to spend at least $500,000 on radio and television ads addressing the corruption issue before the primary. Stevens may find it difficult to overcome such a barrage of negative advertising.
Democrats are awaiting the Republican primary results to see whether their presumptive nominee, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, will face the incumbent or a lesser-known quantity in either Cuddy or Vickers. If Stevens is the nominee, Democrats' chances of winning the race go from good to great. Assessing a general election that features either Vickers or Cuddy is more difficult, but it is fair to say that Begich would start with a healthy advantage.
Five Perched on the Edge
According to The Cook Political Report, five GOP-held seats are toss-ups: the open seat in Colorado, and those occupied by Norm Coleman in Minnesota, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, John Sununu in New Hampshire, and Gordon Smith in Oregon.
Colorado is one of three Bush-won Western states that Democrats have targeted in the presidential contest. Democratic strategists think that this focus, coupled with the substantial gains that the state party has made in recent years, puts them in a strong position to win this seat. The Democratic nominee is five-term Rep. Mark Udall, Tom Udall's cousin. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer has the GOP nod.
Until recently, this race was a statistical dead heat. But since taking to the airwaves to tout his defense and national security credentials, Udall's lead has expanded to as much as 9 points. Democrats have thrown a number of charges at Schaffer, including accusations that an energy company he worked for flouted U.S. policy by negotiating an oil contract directly with the Kurdistan regional government. He has not been able to match Udall's fundraising, but he has raised enough to remain competitive. As of June 30, Schaffer had taken in $4.6 for the cycle compared with Udall's $7.2 million.
This is a typical liberal-versus-conservative contest. Both nominees have largely solidified their bases, and swing voters will decide the race. Colorado could be one state where the outcome of the presidential election determines the outcome of the Senate race.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is something of a bright spot for Republicans even though Norm Coleman's race is a toss-up. The fact that satirist Al Franken is the presumptive Democratic nominee has made this the marquee Senate race of the cycle.
Coleman can be counted on to run a well-funded, well-executed campaign. He has already aired several television ads touting what he has done for the state and his ability to work across party lines. He has a cash-on-hand advantage over Franken, posting $7.2 million in the bank as of June 30, compared with $4.2 million for Franken.
At the start of the race, Franken's task was to convince voters that his candidacy was serious and that he was well versed on the issues. He seemed to have accomplished both by early this year, but revelations in recent months that he failed to carry workers' compensation insurance for his employees and failed to pay income taxes for a number of years in several states have eroded his progress. He has also been hurt by the controversy triggered by a sexual fantasy he wrote for Playboy in 2000 that Rep. Betty McCollum, D-Minn., criticized this spring. Franken's setbacks notwithstanding, this will be a close and nasty race. At least for now, Coleman has taken a bit of a lead.
Turning to Mississippi, it is difficult to believe that a Senate race in such a Republican state should be viewed as very competitive, especially in a presidential year. Yet polling indicates that appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker has a fight on his hands in his bid to serve the final four years of Lott's term. The Democratic nominee is former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.
Ironically, the presidential race helps to make this contest a real fight. African-Americans, who make up more than one-third of the state's voting-age population, are expected to turn out in unusually high numbers to support Democrat Barack Obama's White House bid, thus benefiting Musgrove. If, for instance, African-Americans account for 35 percent of November's vote in the state, Musgrove would need to win only about 24 percent of white voters' support, according to a Musgrove campaign poll. For the Democratic Senate nominee to attract one-quarter of the white vote is harder than it sounds, but it could be done.
Another factor that Democrats expect to work in their favor is that, under Mississippi's rules for special elections, the candidates' party affiliation won't appear on the ballot.
And as a former governor, Musgrove starts the race with much higher name recognition than his opponent. It is not surprising, then, that most reliable polls show him leading Wicker, who until January represented one of the state's four congressional districts.
Wicker is one Republican Senate candidate with a distinct financial edge, however. As of June 30, he had nearly $3 million in the bank; Musgrove had just $716,180. Wicker has been on the air for weeks with positive ads designed to raise his profile among voters around the state. The DSCC and the state Democratic Party have started a similar TV campaign for Musgrove to prevent Wicker from gaining serious momentum.
To capture this Mississippi seat, Democrats will have to work to identify and register new voters, especially African-Americans, and then get voters to the polls on Election Day. They may be able to pull it off, given the investment that the party has made on a field program in the state.
Until Stevens's indictment, New Hampshire's John Sununu had the dubious distinction of being the most endangered incumbent in either party. The state's voting population has changed a great deal since the Republican won this seat in 2002, and it now leans Democratic. Sununu's Democratic challenger is former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, whom he defeated by 4 points in 2002. Shaheen links Sununu to Bush at every opportunity, while promising action on a range of issues central to middle-class families, from gasoline prices to the future of Medicare.
For his part, Sununu will stress his independence and his achievements for the state. Although the incumbent says he doesn't expect the race to heat up until Labor Day, Shaheen is already on the air. Some polls show her ahead by double digits, but the most recent survey gave her a 4-point lead. As of now, Sununu has two advantages: He had more than twice as much money in the bank as of June 30 ($5.1 million compared with just over $2.1 million for Shaheen), and John McCain will head the GOP ticket. Although the state will be hotly contested in the presidential contest, McCain's popularity among the New Hampshire independents who twice helped him win the state's GOP presidential primary could help Sununu. Overall, Shaheen has the edge in this race, but even Democratic loyalists in New Hampshire expect it to be close.
In Oregon, Republican Gordon Smith's toughest opponent may be the political climate, not the Democratic nominee, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Smith has a largely moderate record that keeps him near the Senate's ideological 50-yard line. Oregon voters are in a sour mood, however, and are even more likely than the nation's electorate as a whole to be dissatisfied with Bush's performance and to think that the country is headed in the wrong direction. It may not matter how much money Smith raises, what he has done for the state, or how well he campaigns. He could run a perfect campaign and still lose because the political climate is so hostile to his party.
Merkley had a tougher-than-expected primary and has struggled to raise money, although his June 30 report showed improvement. Still, by the end of the quarter, Smith had more than $4.4 million in the bank compared with Merkley's $569,435. The DSCC and the state party have invested heavily, running TV ads to boost Merkley or attack Smith.
Polling shows a very close race. Look for it to go down to the wire.
Safer Territory
Two other Republican senators face competitive races but are doing well. In Maine, Susan Collins continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Tom Allen. To unseat Collins, Allen must not only define himself but also change voters' positive attitude toward the incumbent.
In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole is fending off an aggressive challenge from state Sen. Kay Hagan. The Democrat accuses Dole of squandering her first term and not spending enough time in the state. Dole has countered with television ads that highlight her accomplishments and her deep roots in North Carolina.
The Democratic Party hopes to be competitive in races for several other Republican-held seats: in Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is running for a second term; in Kansas, where lobbyist and former Rep. Jim Slattery is running against GOP incumbent Pat Roberts; in Kentucky, where wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford is challenging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell; in Nebraska, where Hagel is retiring; in Oklahoma, where state Sen. Andrew Rice is taking on James Inhofe; and in Texas, where state Rep. Rick Noriega is challenging John Cornyn. But Democrats are unlikely to be even remotely competitive in more than one or two of those contests.
A One-Woman Target List
Of the 12 Democratic incumbents up for re-election in November, only one is vulnerable, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.
Landrieu beat second-tier opponents in 1996 and 2002 by fewer than 50,000 votes after running lackluster campaigns. By all accounts, she is running a better campaign this year. She also has a more substantive Senate record on which to run, and her fundraising has improved. She recently launched television ads.
Several factors complicate Landrieu's bid for a third term, however. Louisiana may be the only state in the nation that is becoming more Republican, a trend that began even before New Orleans was devastated by Hurricane Katrina and lost perhaps 100,000 of its heavily Democratic voters. Landrieu owed her past victories mainly to her substantial winning margins in New Orleans. And this time she is facing a much tougher opponent, Democrat-turned-Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy. He has been elected statewide three times and has proven to be a solid fundraiser, although Landrieu is benefitting from her significant head start.
Polling has Landrieu ahead, but this is expected to be one of the nation's closest contests by Election Day.
Overall, Democrats are now poised to pick up five to seven Senate seats, giving them a total of 56 to 58. Reaching a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the chamber looks more plausible for the Democratic Party than it did a few months ago, but it remains difficult.
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