Conventions can be a time to turn the page. Both parties' standard-bearers certainly want that to be the case this year. For Barack Obama, the generational impact of his candidacy makes a fresh-start theme appropriate. For John McCain and the Republicans in general, it's an electoral necessity.
In many ways, the Democratic gathering is likely to represent a significant changing of the guard. Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton have dominated the party since 1992, but they will not hold sway in Denver. And neither will their many operatives and fundraisers.
Even the folks on the convention floor are likely to look different. "I think you are going to see quite a generational difference between who is sitting in those delegate seats this time and last time," predicts veteran Democratic media consultant Bill Carrick.
What Democrats don't want to see in Denver is a repeat of their 2004 kid-glove convention in Boston, where nominee John Kerry insisted on keeping attacks on President Bush to a minimum. This year, expect to hear the Democrats fire a lot more broadsides, as convention speakers argue the case that McCain's election would be tantamount to giving George W. Bush a third term.
In Carrick's view, a good offense is the best defense for Democrats, whose convention is first this year. "[Republicans] are going to try to do their damnedest to pull off a convention where they beat up on Obama, and the Democrats better be able to frame their convention appropriately."
Obama's main task in his speech is to burnish his image on national security, many Democrats say. "The commander-in-chief test is the one he's going to have to pass. And I think he will," said Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf, who was deputy manager of Kerry's general election campaign.
Another goal of the Obama campaign is to hold an "open convention," building on 1,000-plus "Listening to America" platform discussions around the country and capped by the presidential nominee's outdoor acceptance speech at 76,000-seat Invesco Field. Strategists plan to emphasize the "openness" theme to energize supporters and underscore Obama's aim to make politics more inclusive.
The last presidential nominee to deliver an acceptance speech in a stadium was John F. Kennedy, who took on the Democratic mantle at the Los Angles Coliseum in 1960. Despite the obstacles, convention planners have toyed with the idea of an outdoor event ever since then. Harold Ickes recalls that in 1996, when he was deputy White House chief of staff and overseeing President Clinton's re-election bid, there was talk of delivering the acceptance speech outdoors in Chicago. "But just the logistics and fear of failure deterred us," Ickes said. "I think this is a good idea; I'm glad I'm not responsible for it."
Republicans looking toward their convention are concerned about a lot more than the atmospheric conditions in Minneapolis-St. Paul on September 4. They view their party gathering as a crucial moment, McCain's best opportunity to define his candidacy before the two-month dash to Election Day.
"It's going to be his one chance on stage to make the contrast [with Obama] as clear as possible before heading into that stretch," said GOP communications strategist Kevin Madden, who was national press secretary for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential bid this year. "He really needs to make the argument he will fundamentally take the country in a different direction than Barack Obama, [and that Obama's] would be the wrong one."
Mark McKinnon, the chief media strategist for Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, agrees that the GOP convention needs to be a roaring success. "There's a lot of pressure on McCain and the McCain campaign, and they need to hit home runs," said McKinnon, who advised the senator from Arizona during the primary season.
Having failed to present a consistent and compelling message since he effectively clinched the nomination in early March, McCain must use the September conclave to define himself and his party as it looks beyond Bush, whose job-approval rating seems frozen below 30 percent.
"Successful conventions are conventions where candidates clearly and simply identify who they are and why they are running," McKinnon said. "[McCain] has got to show that it's a new Republican Party. He's got to show that he's rebranded the party."
But McCain's efforts to recast the GOP could run into opposition if his campaign tries to put a moderate stamp on the party platform. Sometimes it's best just to avoid such fights, said Bob Stevenson, who was an adviser to then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist when he oversaw the 2004 GOP platform process and had to decide how much to antagonize the party's Far Right. Indeed, even though the GOP platform tends to reflect the most-conservative Republicans, the convention's evening program is what counts in wooing swing voters.
"The perceptions of John McCain and the party will be developed in what happens in prime time," Stevenson said.
In the run-up to both conventions, many are speculating about the impact of the Olympics. The Games end on Sunday, August 24, the day before the Democrats convene in Denver. No party has held its national convention during the Summer Olympics since 1952, when the Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson in Chicago while the Games were going on in Helsinki, Finland.
And since 1972, the only time that the Games preceded both conventions was 1996. GOP nominee Bob Dole announced his running mate the day after the Atlanta Games concluded, two days before his convention opened in San Diego.
This time, expect to see U.S. Olympic medalists at both gatherings.
This article appeared in the Saturday, August 2, 2008 edition of National Journal.
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