- Sun. Nov. 22, 2009
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A Closer Look
Hillary or Barack? For the political junkie who must know who is ahead today, there is only one place to go—the Gallup Daily Poll (Gallup.com). Since January 2, the firm has made nightly inquiries of 1,000 respondents to gauge support for the leading presidential candidates. The result is a closely entwined fever graph depicting the ebb and flow of Democratic disagreement.
“It’s had remarkable stability, given attitudes,” said Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport. Clinton led Obama in the poll until February’s Super Tuesday, when her opponent surged and erased her advantage. Ever since, the two have seesawed as events affected the daily results. “After primary wins, we clearly see an impact in data,” Newport said. After Clinton’s Texas and Ohio victories March 4, she jumped ahead of Obama by 4 points; when the Jeremiah Wright controversy broke a week later, Clinton extended her lead to 7 points.
This week, Obama surged ahead of Clinton 51 percent to 41 percent. Newport is still waiting to see if Obama can break the logjam. “We’re looking for a sustained, statistically significant [7-point] lead on Obama’s part,” he said.
—Randy Barrett
Murmurs
Psst! There’s talk of meetings between GOP officials at the White House and in the Senate to come up with a new slate of Republican nominees for the Federal Election Commission. The agency has been effectively dysfunctional since January because of a Senate standoff over controversial GOP nominee Hans von Spakovsky. The dustup has also stalled confirmation of three other FEC nominees—two Democrats and one Republican. The meetings are said to involve Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee … Lauren Thorbjornsen, a press assistant in Barack Obama’s campaign, beat out Reggie Love, who played on Duke University’s ’01 basketball championship team and last year’s Senate NCAA pool winner, Barack Obama, to win this year’s Obama camp office pool, worth $250. “Two of our media monitors finished second and third,” said campaign spokesman Bill Burton, “which makes me think they’ve been monitoring the wrong media” … We hear the United Steelworkers is leaning toward endorsing Obama for president. On Monday, Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are slated to make presentations to the union’s leadership. “There is a reluctance to endorse Clinton and sentiment toward Obama,” says a source who puts Obama’s chances at 60/40 …
Vital Statistics
101,856
Number of National Guard and Reserve troops on active duty worldwide—the highest number since October 2006
—Defense Department
Soft-Dollar Infusion
What’s in your wallet? Several superwealthy Republicans, including Texas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens, are readying multimillion-dollar ad drives for this year’s presidential campaign. Sources say that Pickens has promised $10 million to $20 million to a new conservative political group fashioned by Tom Synhorst, the longtime GOP grassroots and media strategist who runs the K Street lobbying and communications giant DCI Group. This year’s drive is seeking to raise about $100 million and is expected to run hard-hitting issue ads to boost GOP presidential contender John McCain’s chances and undercut either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton, depending on who wins the Democratic nod. Pickens teamed up with Synhorst and DCI-linked groups in 2004 on two separate efforts, Progress for America and Swift Boat Veterans for Truth; combined, they ran about $60 million in ads to help President Bush win re-election.
—Peter H. Stone
Comparing Oppressions
Will Rust Belt Pennsylvania prove to be even better Clinton country than Ohio, which the Democratic senator from New York won handily in March largely because of her appeal to beleaguered blue-collar voters? Maybe. The Keystone State has lost nearly a quarter of its manufacturing jobs during the Bush administration, a worse record than in the Buckeye State, according to a new study from economist Charles McMillion for the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition. Vote-rich Philadelphia lost a third of its manufacturing employment; Pittsburgh nearly a quarter. These manufacturing losses represent a more significant decline than occurred during the early-1980s recession. The slight job growth that the state has experienced is in lower-paying health care, food services, and government services positions. Little wonder that Pennsylvania weathered a 1.8 percent decline in median household income from 2000 to 2006. But incomes in Ohio fell a whopping 8.7 percent during the same period. So when Pennsylvanians head to the polls on April 22, maybe they won’t be as disgruntled as Ohioans after all.
—Bruce Stokes
Reality Check
“Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new jobs figures for March. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 80,000 jobs. While these numbers are disappointing, they are not entirely unexpected.”
--White House statement, April 4, 2008
Nor are they necessarily accurate. The number of jobs lost last month, and so far this year, could far exceed the total of 232,000 acknowledged by the Labor Department in the first quarter of this year. Government employment estimates are based on business surveys. But the BLS can’t sample companies that it doesn’t know exist. Because new firms set up shop every month, the bureau estimates the number of jobs such companies have created and then goes back later to find the accurate number. Historically, the estimates tend to understate employment creation in good times and overstate it in bad times. Last year, Labor overstated job gains by an average of 25,000 per month. With the economic downturn worsening, the overstatement may be even worse this year.
—Bruce Stokes
Other Lives: Long-Winded
At 41, William Barr wasn’t the youngest attorney general (Robert F. Kennedy wasn’t even the youngest at 36), but he probably has the distinction of being the only AG to provide the musical entertainment at his own swearing-in ceremony. Barr played with eight members of his group, now known as the City of Washington Pipe Band, in November 1991, prompting President George H.W. Bush to proclaim the sound a violation of the Constitution’s ban on cruel and unusual punishment. Barr served for the final year of the elder Bush’s presidency and then went back to corporate law, eventually becoming general counsel at Verizon Communications.
The president may not have known it back then, but Barr’s piping wasn’t just a hobby. He has played since he was 8, and the City of Washington Band was—and is—one of the best professional pipe bands in the world. Barr’s Celtic heritage had nothing to do with his picking up the pipes. “When my parents told me I should learn some instrument, I said it was the pipes or nothing,” he says. “I just thought they were the most beautiful sound I ever heard, and still do.” Barr, who has been busy fighting for Verizon’s immunity in the Bush administration’s warrantless wiretapping program, says he doesn’t enter competitions anymore, but he plays for friends and family—most recently at the wedding of a friend’s daughter.
—John Maggs