- Mon. Sep. 8, 2008
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James A. Barnes
Democrats (82 votes)
Barack Obama 56%
Hillary Rodham Clinton 33%
Both (volunteered) 7%
Neither; not hurting (volunteered) 4%
Obama
"Voters don't expect anything better from the Clintons, but Obama is supposed to transcend politics as usual."
"Obama is more hurt by the intraparty sniping because he has tried to cast himself as the 'Mr. Clean' of modern politics. Now it turns out that he is just like every other candidate."
"All the sniping has taken Obama off message and raised his negatives. He has to respond, but it is a game that plays in Clinton's favor over the long run."
"Obama is hurt more, because the situation for him is a bit of 'Damned if you do and damned if you don't.' On the one hand, Obama is supposed to be the candidate of change, but by attacking, he looks pretty typical. On the other hand, Obama has shown that he is somewhat uncomfortable with attacking. Yet, national Democrats know that the fall campaign will be a tough and nasty affair where he will have to be able to keep pace with anticipated vicious attacks by Republicans and their surrogates."
"Unfavorable impressions of her were factored in by voters long, long ago."
"You expect Clinton and her folks to snipe. It's who they are. It's more surprising when it comes from Obama, and it has the tendency to turn people off quicker."
"From the simple perspective that he is going to be the nominee. That fact, unfortunately, drives a lot of the byplay between the two forces these days -- because HRC has virtually no chance, she and her campaign also have nothing to lose, so they say pretty much anything without a whole lot of risk."
"It makes him look like every other politician, not some great uniter above it all."
"As the likely general election nominee, Obama has more to lose. Every time Clinton attacks, she's providing ammunition for [John] McCain and the Republican Party."
"The more he gets off message, the more he looks like every other politician and the faster he loses his appeal."
"The expectations from the media and the voters are higher for Obama than Clinton. The more he is brought into a street fight, the worse for him and the (slightly) better for Clinton. In order to win, Clinton clearly now has to make a case against Obama, and [she] can't rely on just making a case for herself."
Clinton
"Tough call: feeds the worst part of her image."
"The war of words between Clinton and Obama reinforces the notion that the Clintons 'will do anything to get elected.' "
"They look so desperate. Not just Hillary but Bill, too. They need to show how to lose with dignity, not destruction."
"The only audience that really counts now is the superdelegates, and the sniping hurts her a lot with the superdelegates."
"Polling consistently shows that she is viewed as the least honest of the three remaining candidates, and the sniping only adds fuel to the fire."
"Nobody stays clean in a mud fight, but he continues to have a positive story line and she does not. It's ironic that the black sheep of the Republican Party is now the beneficiary of [the Democrats'] grudging admiration; the party that looked as though it would produce a candidate that everyone would support and adore may now be in for a real contest in the fall."
"It smacks of old-style politics, and people want change."
"Because of the ongoing pro-Obama media coverage. When her campaign criticizes him, it is cast as 'racist.' When he attacks her character or veracity, he is 'showing strength.' The 'freak show' is out of control."
"The sniping reinforces the perception of one of the few things Democratic voters don't like about the Clintons -- win at any cost, even if it does damage to the party."
Both
"Both, equally, diminishing their stature and starting to have an effect on our prospects for the fall."
Neither; not hurting
"Defining differences clarifies the choice at hand. One voter's snipe is another voter's point well-taken."
Republicans (92 votes)
Spending 27%
Gasoline prices 19%
Health care 17%
Taxes 17%
Mortgage meltdown 11%
Environment 4%
Immigration 1%
Volunteered: Economy, 2 percent; race, 1 percent; size of
government, 1 percent.
Spending
"McCain's the only Republican who can credibly take on this issue."
"McCain needs to use his pulpit to drive the issue agenda into those areas traditionally helpful to Republican candidates."
"Specifically, he should break with the 'big-government conservatism' of the Bush administration -- wrong on No Child Left Behind, wrong on expansion of Medicare -- and talk about limiting the role and cost of government."
"McCain has credibility as a longtime critic of out-of-control government spending, but he'd be on better footing with moderates if that criticism weren't accompanied by his calls for making the tax cuts permanent. His tax position also leaves him vulnerable to those who want to make the war a domestic issue, due to its cost."
"Spending allows McCain to remind conservatives that he's a limited-government guy and the rest of the world that he's not a backslapping politician buying votes with the people's money."
"Spending is his strength. The American people get it, even if most of the elected idiots in Washington do not."
"Obama earmarks; John McCain doesn't. Independents will appreciate his purity on this issue."
"Republicans have to re-engage on the spending issue and establish a party difference vis-a -vis the Dems."
Gasoline prices
"He should stay with 'bread-and-butter' issues."
"This one covers two of his strongest suits, national security and energy self-reliance. Our addiction to foreign oil [finances] many of our enemies in the Middle East."
"Should focus on the impact it is having on working families but focus on foreign dependence, not opportunistic oil company-bashing."
"He's already seen as weak on the economy. The key in fixing that is showing that he understands the daily lives of the voters. Earmarks and tax cuts are abstract: He needs to do the real stuff."
"Strong leadership is needed right now to inspire America's consumers and prepare them for a difficult road."
Health care
"He needs to let more people know that he has a solid market-based reform plan."
"We're getting creamed on this topic, and it's much more than just Medicare. Americans want to know the GOP 'feels their pain' a bit on this subject.They're already prone to side with us on the solution; we just need to identify with the problem more."
"The key is the cost concerns of senior citizen voters, and if McCain can run up the score with that demo, he has a fighting chance."
"Don't refight the Clinton Care campaign ... but get out there with ideas. You don't need a complete plan, but you need to get beyond the traditional Republican ideological positions and be creative."
Taxes
"McCain has got to frame this race as a clear choice -- he is for keeping taxes low, and electing Hillary or Obama will guarantee higher taxes."
"The Democrats can't help themselves, and this is a winning issue for McCain."
"Taxes, because it is basically a discussion on the economy and McCain needs to reassure conservatives that he is one."
"McCain needs to run against Congress, not away from his record there and to create a frightening vision of what a Democratically controlled Washington would look like."
Mortgage meltdown
"A great way to play reformer, populist, and fight corporate greed."
"It's current, everyone's worried about it, his solution resonates with the base, and he doesn't have to bash the president."
Environment
"He needs to talk about issues that independents care about."
Immigration
"His current combination of tough on border enforcement while friendly to legal immigration differentiates him from both Ds."
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, and JoDee Winterhof.
GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.