- Mon. Oct. 6, 2008
|
Search Sponsor:
|
James A. Barnes
Democrats (87 votes)
April 2%
May 3%
June 59%
July-August 24%
At the convention 9%
It's already happened (volunteered) 2%
May
"Even after her victory in Pennsylvania, it will be clear that Hillary Clinton can't catch up with Sen. Obama on elected delegates. The Democratic establishment wants the primary campaign to end as early as possible so Democrats can train their guns on John McCain instead of each other."
"Superdelegates will finally see handwriting. The Clintons cost us Congress from 1994 till 2006, and cost us the presidency in 2000. We can't let them also cost us the presidency in 2008."
June
"The uncommitted superdelegates will end the nomination contest in June by moving to support the leader in pledged delegates. Either the superdelegates end the nomination fight in June, or Democrats will self-destruct in August at the convention."
"Neither candidate will have the number needed to nominate. Superdelegates will determine the outcome no matter what. If Obama has a spate of bad press, such as the Rev. [Jeremiah] Wright story, remaining superdelegates may move to Clinton."
"If the delegate margin has not closed significantly by the end of the primaries, there will be little upside for Clinton to stay in the race."
"Unfortunately, not until June, when the pledged-delegate count will unassailably affirm Obama's victory in that category. Then, and only then, will Clinton concede and in effect let the uncommitted superdelegates go the way of the pledged delegates."
"It will all come down to which candidate has the majority of the popular vote. Once that is known, the superdelegates will [choose sides] and end this before the convention."
"Party leaders know they can't let it drag on beyond then without causing irreparable damage for November. There will need to be resolution by the end of June to allow time for reconciliation."
"Obama is starting to fade because there simply isn't enough to his message to matter to the struggling middle class, but he'll have an insurmountable delegate lead when the voting is done, and Hillary will do the right thing at the right time."
"Hillary won't pull out. She'll win all the big states, and then the superdelegates will decide. And the party won't let it go all the way to the convention."
"By that time we will know the winner of the popular vote, who has the momentum with a majority of the late wins, and who is leading in the national polls -- i.e., who is perceived as the most electable. I believe that the undecided superdelegates will coalesce around the candidate that is ahead on two of the three criteria listed above."
July-August
"It is unlikely that Obama will be able to close the deal until very late in the game, if at all. Not having been scrutinized carefully by the national media until now will continue to be a problem for him."
"The outcome will be left to the superdelegates and, more pointedly, those that will share the ballot with the nominee. With self-interest the most likely determining factor, the shift toward Obama, reflecting public opinion surveys for the general election, will tilt it his way."
"The primaries and caucuses will end on June 3. There will be a drumbeat of pressure for the losing candidate to withdraw from the race for the sake of party unity. However, the longer the losing candidate stays in the race, the more likely he or she will be able to extract some concessions from the winning candidate."
"Barring something unexpected, like an illness, death, or just plain exhaustion, I don't think we will know before July-August. It looks like Obama will be hard to catch, but he can't get to the golden ring either."
"That's the earliest. The superdelegates, like it or not, will determine the nominee. And lots of them will decide late."
At the convention
"We lack the party leadership that could solve this prior to the convention."
"Obama's minister issue hurts him and may begin to convert superdelegates to Hillary or, at a minimum, will likely freeze them. On top of that, the rapidly tanking economy works well for Hillary. All of that would suggest that Hillary has the advantage, but the math suggests that the numbers won't be finalized until the convention."
Republicans (85 votes)
President Bush 24%
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. 20%
Defense Secretary Robert Gates 14%
Gen. David Petraeus 11%
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 11%
Nobody 6%
Also receiving votes: White House Counselor Ed Gillespie, 5
percent; Assistant to the President Barry Jackson, 2
percent; and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke,
White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten, Vice President
Cheney, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, Health and
Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, and Office of
Management and Budget Director Jim Nussle, 1 percent each.
President Bush
"It starts at the top. If the president can oversee a productive final year in office -- continue making progress in Iraq and stabilize a sputtering economy -- then Bush will have done more to help McCain than anyone else could."
"The president himself, because he is strong among the base and still motivates the donors within the party -- two things the McCain campaign will need help with."
"He can best help 'close the deal' for McCain with conservatives, and also raise money."
"This guy can sure raise money so quickly you'll think he's printing it."
"He will remind conservatives how dangerous the Democratic candidate will be for America."
"Even an unpopular president can assert control of the agenda and make headlines at will."
"Only because of his ability to fundraise."
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr.
"Assuming the economy has come out of its slump by next fall, Secretary Paulson could bring McCain much-needed credibility on the very economic issues on which McCain has some weakness."
"Secretary Paulson's successful management of the financial market meltdown stands to benefit McCain."
"He can give McCain the badly needed gravitas that he needs to show on domestic economic issues."
"Assuming that he continues in his bold, take-charge attitude regarding the economic turndown."
"Of course, he's also Wall Street's best friend at the moment, which has a real chance of backfiring. Nonetheless, his steady -- if not impartial -- hand will keep our economy from tipping, and reassure the electorate that Republicans can be counted on in tough economic times."
Defense Secretary Robert Gates
"The public's perception of progress in Iraq will make or break McCain's candidacy."
"McCain cannot be held responsible for the market's problems. Handling of the war is another thing entirely."
"McCain's great credential is that he saw the best way to save the war. If Gates can keep things moving in a stable, positive direction, this enhances McCain's greatest differentiator between him and either Democrat and significantly blunts their best argument against him. But in order for this to happen, the Department of Defense must continue to be steady and smart."
Gen. David Petraeus
"Eventually, a strategy to back away from Iraq -- and the Bush strategy -- will be necessary for McCain, and he will need Gen. Petraeus to do it."
"By far. He can credibly talk about the progress made and the risks of hasty withdrawal from Iraq. Other than help in fundraising, no one else in the administration would be helpful in the least. And several officials, like Cheney, are electorally radioactive."
"Keeping the lid on Iraq while promoting more elections [there] will allow McCain to burnish his economic proposals. It would be tough to juggle an exploding situation on the ground in Baghdad while arguing prosperity is just around the corner."
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
"She re-emphasizes his foreign-policy strength."
"Attacking Obama or Clinton would be much easier with her, an accomplished African-American woman, at his side. Her popularity remains relatively high. This would be his -- and Republicans' -- little way of also breaking the glass ceilings of race and gender."
Nobody
"More than anything else, McCain needs to maintain the perception of independence from the Bush White House."
"You got to be kidding."
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, and JoDee Winterhof.
GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.