- Thu. Aug. 28, 2008
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January: Hillary Rodham Clinton comes back in New Hampshire after a devastating third-place finish in Iowa.
February: Clinton recovers from her landslide defeat in South Carolina by winning the big prizes on Super Tuesday: California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.
March: After a string of 11 defeats, Clinton keeps her campaign alive by winning primaries in Ohio and Texas.
Hillary Clinton is not just the Comeback Kid. She's the Comeback-of-the-Month Kid.
How does she do it? With a two-part strategy. Part 1: populism. Clinton expanded her populist base.
Barack Obama has become the candidate who inspires. At a rally in San Antonio on Super Tuesday, he said: "Can we send a message to all those weary travelers beyond our shores who long to be free from fear and want that the United States of America is and always will be the last best hope on earth? We say, we hope, we believe -- yes, we can."
Clinton is the candidate who delivers. "The question is not whether we can fulfill those dreams. It's whether we will," she said in Ohio. "And here's our answer: Yes, we will!"
In Ohio and Texas, Clinton's support grew stronger among constituencies that depend on government to deliver for them. Seniors, for instance. Seniors voted 57 percent for Clinton on Super Tuesday, according to combined network exit polls from 16 primary states. On March 4, her senior support grew to 67 percent in Texas and 72 percent in economically hard-pressed Ohio. Among Democrats with less than a college education, many in blue-collar jobs, Clinton's support rose from 58 percent on Super Tuesday to 62 percent in Texas and 65 percent in Ohio. Clinton shows surprising strength among rural Democrats. Her support in rural areas grew from 53 percent on Super Tuesday to 61 percent in Texas and 70 percent in Ohio.
The deteriorating economy contributed to Clinton's most recent comeback. "I think we're ready for an economy that works for everyone," she said in Columbus, Ohio, "not just those at the top but every single hardworking American who deserves a shot at the American Dream." Voters worried about their financial situation gave Clinton double-digit margins over Obama in both states. Among economically anxious voters, Clinton led by 13 points in Texas and 12 points in Ohio. They were no small group. More than two-thirds of Texas Democratic primary voters and more than three-quarters of Ohio primary voters said they were worried about their family's financial situation.
Clinton's support from Latino voters in Texas nearly canceled out Obama's huge lead among African-American voters. African-Americans made up 19 percent of the Texas Democratic primary vote. They split 16 percent for Obama and 3 percent for Clinton, giving Obama a 13-point advantage. Latinos were a larger voting group (34 percent). Clinton got two-thirds of the Latino vote, meaning Latinos split 23 to 11 for Clinton -- a 12-point advantage. It was the white vote that put Clinton over the top in Texas. She carried whites, 56 percent to 43 percent.
Part 2 of Clinton's comeback strategy is toughness.That appears to have given her late momentum in Texas, where voters who decided in the final days of the campaign went 61 percent for Clinton. Among voters who made up their minds earlier, the race was virtually tied (50 percent for Clinton, 49 percent for Obama).
What did she do in the last few days before those contests? She ran the "red phone ad" touting herself as "someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military -- someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world." Democratic primary voters in Texas and Ohio said that Clinton is more qualified than Obama to be commander-in-chief. That may have put her over the top with one of the most difficult constituencies of all -- white men, who went for her by double-digit margins in both states.
Democratic voters in Texas and Ohio were also more likely to say "Clinton" when asked which Democratic candidate has a clear plan to solve the nation's problems. But they were more likely to say that Obama inspires them about the future of the country.
She delivers; he inspires. Put the two together, and Democrats might have a good ticket.
