- Sun. Sep. 7, 2008
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Richard E. Cohen
Q: How many Senate seats will the Democrats gain or lose in November?
Democrats (37 votes)
Average: +4.7 seats
Lose seats 0%
No change 3%
Gain 1 to 3 seats 19%
Gain 4 or 5 seats 51%
Gain 6 or more seats 27%
Gain 4 or 5
4. "Virginia is a lock for [Democrat Mark] Warner, and New Hampshire and Alaska lean Democratic, but a lot of uncertainties here. The Udall [cousins] are uncertain quantities in New Mexico and Colorado; [Al] Franken may be too quirky a fit even in Minnesota; and [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles] Schumer's vaunted recruiting failed in Oregon. The upset special: [Republican Sen. Roger] Wicker is much shakier in Mississippi than D.C. insiders think."
5. "[New Hampshire Republican Sen. John] Sununu and [Alaska Republican Sen. Ted] Stevens will lose, both Udalls will win, and Mark Warner will pick up Virginia. Tom Allen in Maine also looks competitive."
5. "Open seats and great recruitment and fundraising have significantly expanded Democrats' playing field."
5. "If it was possible to use the word 'cloture' in a campaign slogan, we'd gain 10 seats."
Gain 6 or more
7. "Democrats will gain seats in Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Hampshire; will hold Louisiana; and will pocket a pleasant surprise or two. Republicans will be on their heels during the entire course of the campaign as they confront a debilitating fundraising disadvantage and attempt to operate under the weight of the third Bush term they've chosen to place on the top of their ticket."
Republicans (28 votes)
Average: +2.9 seats
Lose seats 0%
No change 14%
Gain 1 to 3 seats 29%
Gain 4 or 5 seats 54%
Gain 6 or more seats 4%
Gain 1 to 3
2. "Tough map. [National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John] Ensign has been a bright spot in a dismal year. Fearless prediction: [Republican Sens. Norm] Coleman and [Gordon] Smith come back [in Minnesota and Oregon]."
Gain 4 or 5
4. "Lose: New Hampshire (Sununu); Colorado (open); New Mexico (open); Alaska (Stevens); Virginia (open). Pick up: Louisiana (Landrieu). [Democratic Senatorial Committee Chairman] Schumer will get close to the Holy Grail of 60. Close, but not close enough."
5. "Sen. Schumer continues to show he can recruit quality candidates and raise the money to support these candidates."
5. "It is far too early to be making these calculations with any degree of accuracy."
5. "Ensign is good, but it's 'too steep a hill to climb.' "
Q: How many House seats will the Democrats gain or lose in November?
Democrats (37 votes)
Average: +13.8 seats
Lose seats 0%
No change 3%
Gain 1 to 9 seats 19%
Gain 10 to 19 seats 57%
Gain 20 or more seats 22%
No change
0. "Win a few; lose a few. No gain."
Gain 1 to 9
7. "The fact Democrats picked up [former Speaker Dennis] Hastert's seat shows definite momentum."
Gain 10 to 19
10. "We picked much of the low-hanging fruit in 2006, but Bill Foster's win [in Illinois] showed that Democrats can be competitive in 2008 in solid Republican districts."
13. "The Democrats will continue to pick up seats in the Northeast, Industrial Belt, and Mountain West as the effects of Americans' alienation from the ideological Republican agenda percolate into their choices for public officials."
15. "Our red-to-blue efforts grow with each presidential veto."
16. "Three factors are at play: A likely Democratic presidential victory of 2 to 4 points, a rash of Republican vacancies in emerging Democratic territory in the West and Midwest, and the fact that Republicans have turned in the worst recruitment effort since 2000."
Gain 20 or more
20. "Bush fatigue, an unpopular war in Iraq, a growing economic recession at home, and high energy prices will result in another wave of Republican House and Senate losses in November. Last week's win in the special election for Hastert's seat is just the latest sign that 2008 will be another strong year for Democrats."
40. "What happened in Illinois last weekend -- a Democrat picking up the seat of the former Republican House speaker -- tells you the earth is moving."
Republicans (28 votes)
Average: -0.6 seats
Lose 10 or more seats 21%
Lose 1 to 9 seats 25%
No change 7%
Gain 1 to 9 seats 21%
Gain 10 to 19 seats 25%
Lose 10 or more
-27. "[Presumptive presidential nominee John] McCain wins every seat the GOP needs to take back the majority. McCain will not win as red or lose as blue, as Bush did, which will help the down-ballot races."
-18. "Iraq will not be a wedge issue in the campaign, and McCain's brand will have serious coattails in November."
-15. "Republicans will do better than expected, thanks to the leadership of Tom Cole, [National Republican Congressional Committee] chair."
Lose 1 to 9
-5. "Nobody will believe me, but [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi gives Republicans a gift just about once a week. I think that there is a good chance we will take back a few seats in November."
-5. "GOP is bolstered by good House results, but no 'new majority.' "
Gain 1 to 9
5. "It is far too early to be making these calculations with any degree of accuracy."
7. "The NRCC is totally dysfunctional. Opponents exist, but the Republicans have no vision and no sense of urgency. They lack a killer instinct."
Gain 10 to 19
10. "The GOP can pick up 20 seats if the House GOP leadership gets their act together; the terrain is favorable. However, it looks like the GOP leadership will remain weak, without a plan, and, therefore, we'll have a net loss of 10 seats."
15. "Simply put, Republicans won't have the resources to protect incumbents and go after open seats."
National Journal Congressional Insiders
National Journal's Congressional Insiders Poll includes 129 members of Congress -- 10 Senate Democrats, 14 Senate Republicans, 52 House Democrats, and 53 House Republicans.
Democratic Congressional Insiders
Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, Jon Tester; Reps. Tom Allen, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Jay Inslee, Steve Israel, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Chris Van Hollen, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.
GOP Congressional Insiders
Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Sununu, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Chris Cannon, Eric Cantor, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Tom Davis, John Doolittle, David Dreier, Phil English, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Ray LaHood, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Jim McCrery, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Marilyn Musgrave, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Deborah Pryce, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Tom Reynolds, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Christopher Shays, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Zach Wamp, and Joe Wilson.