- Mon. Oct. 6, 2008
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James A. Barnes
Q: Who is most likely to capture the Democratic presidential nomination?
Democrats (80 votes)
This Week 2/9/08*
Hillary Rodham Clinton 46% 57%
Barack Obama 53% 42%
Don't know (volunteered) 1% 1%
*Asked only of Democratic Political Insiders.
Clinton
"I'm switching back to Hillary. This is a long campaign. And with voting starting a mere two months ago and with more than five months to the convention, the party would be wise to look at more than the math and take a hard look at the candidate's stamina and momentum."
"The tide has turned on Obama. The spotlight has gotten brighter and, let's be honest, Obama has not shined. And I, for one Democrat, am glad that we are seeing this now instead of October.Obama clearly has all kinds of potential, but if we rush him to the big leagues, we might all be sorry we did not give him more time to get seasoned."
"I think she moves forward with momentum and a win-at-all-costs attitude Obama can't match. Unfortunately, I think that puts her in the driver's seat now. Obama has to raise the level of his campaign one more time if he is going to be able to put her away. And he'll have to win somewhere unexpected to stop her."
"She may have let the trump card out of the bag. She and her minions start sweet-talking every one of the superdelegates with a very simple message: 'There's a way out of this mess. He's 47. He has a future. I'll put him on the ticket, and everyone is happy.' I'm not sure pledged delegates from the Idaho caucus can compete with that."
Obama
"That math is still the math. He is ahead; it is tough for her to close."
"Pledged delegates are the prize. And the Democratic Party would become a mockery of itself if it subverts the will of the people and chooses a nominee without the majority of those delegates."
"His coronation is not warranted by the election results but has been decided by the force of history, it seems. And Clinton winning all the big states appears to be no counter to this phenomenon."
"Obama will win as superdelegates decide their own long-term interests are best represented by going with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates after the primaries are concluded."
Republicans (84 votes)
Hillary Rodham Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 46%
Depends; don't know (volunteered) 4%
Clinton
"This will be a case of 'winning ugly.' And in such a contest, my money is on her."
"Does anyone doubt the Clintons' capacity or ability to paint a very different picture of Obama than the one people have now? This issheer delight for Republicans, of course, since the media and Democrats will be forced toacknowledge that the evil Republicans may not be the most effective at doingthis stuff."
"She has the 'Big Mo' and weeks to focus her mean machine on Obama, who does not play well on defense."
"The longer the establishment figure survives, the tougher it is for the insurgent. With nothing of significance really happening until Pennsylvania in late April, Obamania will be hard to sustain."
"If she wins Pennsylvania, it's going to be very difficult for Obama to claim the nomination on the basis of winning caucuses in safe Republican states."
"The path between now and the nomination goes through superdelegate territory. The Clintons are better at this type of mano a mano fighting because they know where the plum jobs are and carry grudges longer. And the superdelegates know it."
Obama
"This could become the Florida recount, but inside the [Democratic] Party with the Clinton crew fighting to rewrite the rules in whatever ways that will make Hillary the nominee. For the moment, I'm betting Obama will stop them.But I'm not counting on it."
"The next two weeks will tell us what Obama is made of. Can he punch back, or is he just a punching bag?"
"Math is still math, and delegates are where it matters. And unless the Clinton campaign can convince superdelegates in serious numbers to switch, it's still Obama's to lose."
"The facts on the ground did not change that much on Tuesday. Obama has a significant delegate lead amongst elected delegates, and it will be quite difficult for superdelegates to overturn that lead without great political difficulty for the Democratic Party."
Q: Overall, is media coverage of the 2008 presidential campaign better or worse than that of previous campaigns?
Democrats (80 votes)
Better 44%
Worse 43%
Neither; both; depends (volunteered) 9%
More coverage but not
better (volunteered) 5%
Better
"But not so much from their abilities as from the incredible story evolving around them. Even a fourth-grader couldn't screw this one up."
"We've never seen a campaign as exciting and intriguing as this, at least in my lifetime. And the media are energized about it, although they are making mistakes and overcorrecting for them."
"Coverage has been more copious and more thorough. With more information, more debates, and contested primaries, the public interest is high. The press deserves some of the credit for it."
"The nearly two dozen debates, combined with a poor president and an economy in the dumps, really transformed much of the 'horse race' coverage into issue-based stories during a year when it is a horse race."
"There are so many reporters from so many media outlets covering this race that just by volume the coverage is better overall."
Worse
"Where to begin? They have been far too infatuated with process. They have gushed far too much over Obama without doing their jobs and vetting him properly for the American public."
"Because the now well-overpopulated 24-hour news cycle is always looking for a competitive edge. With ... Pennsylvania [not voting for another six weeks] and with the GOP nomination resolved, [the media in] the weeks ahead will be like starved dogs on the hunt."
"Too much coverage leads to people with no campaign experience giving political analysis on the proliferation of channels."
Republicans (84 votes)
Better 55%
Worse 27%
Neither; both; can't tell (volunteered) 18%
Better
"It may just be the result of better, more interesting races, but the commentary seems to be at a higher, more sophisticated level and the technical tools just keep getting better."
"With the possible exception of the Obama crew, the traveling press has avoided flogging for the home team."
"Certainly more intense. The competition between the cable networks seems to be producing intense, impressive coverage."
"Mainly because the race is so different it is forcing the coverage to be more creative and less certain. Voters are deciding, the media are not dictating, and coverage is more respectful of the process."
"There's too much noise and silliness on the air, but there's terrific stuff online for people willing to look for it."
"There is an information overload ... but there does seem to be a greater diversity of opinion on the air."
Worse
"The media has been cheerleading for Obama's victory at the expense of objective reporting. And Sen. McCain? The New York Times continues not to print all the news that's fit to print, but instead prints all the innuendos they can fit that will sink Republican candidates."
"Even the staggering number of debates is more directly correlated to the size of network anchor egos at the expense of the substantive discussion of issues. They devolved into little more than counts of gaffes and one-liners."
"Not just worse -- terrible. The Obama coverage has not been covering but fawning. It has been delicious, though, to see the Clintons react to the kind of treatment previously reserved for Republicans."
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, and JoDee Winterhof.
GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.