The Cook Report - Depressed Old Party

by Charlie Cook

Sat. Feb. 16, 2008


In a funny way, I can identify with how Republicans are feeling and acting these days. I've been fighting a cold since before I boarded a plane for Des Moines to attend the Iowa caucuses, feeling lousy the whole time.

Republicans aren't feeling well either. Their 12-year leadership run in Congress ended in a whimper -- mired in bloated spending, rising deficits, and embarrassing scandals. Until recently, the war in Iraq was going very badly. The war in Afghanistan continues. And President Bush is breaking longevity records for terrible approval ratings.

As if they were suffering through a bad cold, Republicans just don't feel well; nothing tastes or sounds right; and no candidate generates more than a pocket of enthusiasm. John McCain made an early run at building broad support within the party but fell short last summer; most observers gave up his candidacy for dead. Rudy Giuliani tried to convince party members that he suited their taste, but failed. So did Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

Republicans can't seem to gin up much excitement about any standard-bearer. But rather than blame the candidates entirely for this, perhaps Republicans ought to consider that they are simply feeling bad about themselves, their situation, and their party. The GOP's party affiliation is down, fundraising is down, and attendance at party functions is down. Indeed, the only thing that is up is the number of Republicans retiring from Congress.

There is nothing inherently wrong with the GOP. But just as sports teams, corporations, and individuals have ups and downs, the party is going through a bad time. And Republicans just need to tough it out.

The great irony in all of this is that, despite how badly Republicans feel about themselves and despite virtually all of the diagnostic indicators that are pointing down for the party, one still points up: McCain would do well in the fall against either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton, polls suggest. In the new USA Today/Gallup poll of 926 registered voters, McCain runs only 4 points behind Obama, 46 percent to 50 percent; he runs 1 point ahead of Clinton, 49 percent to 48 percent. (Both results are well within the 4-point margin of error.) Across all the recent national polls, McCain averages 3 or 4 points behind Obama and 1 or 2 points ahead of Clinton.

Whether Republicans like McCain or not, he runs competitively against the top Democrats, which is a lot more than can be said for any other GOP contender, real or imagined. If Republicans want a shot at keeping the White House, he's their horse.

Some argue, however, that the GOP is better off losing the White House this year -- that to rise like a phoenix you have to first be reduced to ashes. It is true that forests need periodic fires to clear out the deadwood, and the same is sometimes true of political parties. But nobody ever likes to lose -- or plans to. The way the Republicans' luck has been going lately, if they tried to lose they'd probably win.

What is missing from the GOP debate right now is a clear idea about what it should look like two, three, four, or five years hence. The party may be turning in a slightly more secular direction, becoming a bit less focused on social and cultural issues, and softening the pervasive religious overtones of recent years. Those overtones helped to estrange the GOP from independents and moderates, particularly on such issues as stem-cell research and the Terri Schiavo case.

When Alan Greenspan suggested in his recent book that he didn't recognize his own party, he could well have been speaking for any number of Republican presidents, including Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and even George H.W. Bush, none of whom was nearly as far to the right on cultural issues as today's GOP.

 

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