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LOBBYING & LAW

Business Nervously Eyes the Senate

Corporate interests fervently want a cloture-blocking 41 Republican senators.

by Peter H. Stone

Sat. Jul 26, 2008


In the business community, the fundraising mantra these days sounds a lot like "It's the Senate, stupid."

There are 23 Republican Senate seats up this year versus 12 Democratic ones, and fundraising by several GOP candidates and their Senate committee is lagging behind that of their Democratic counterparts. So, corporations and wealthy executives are pouring tens of millions of dollars into outside political groups, all with a common goal: to ensure that business has enough friends in the Senate to block bills it deems harmful.

Together, several business-backed groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, two fledgling coalitions fighting labor-supported legislation, and the conservative political group Freedom's Watch are trying to raise $100 million for issue advocacy and get-out-the-vote efforts to benefit about 10 GOP Senate races.

Lobbyists and fundraisers involved in the various efforts say that the stakes are considerable this year. Recent polls indicate that more GOP Senate seats may be vulnerable than was the case several months ago. And Democrats and labor interests are spending big on Senate races. That could presage wide Democratic gains this fall.

"There's a lot of focus on maintaining that 41-plus firewall that can block bad legislation," says Jade West, referring to the number of Republicans needed to avoid a filibuster-proof Democratic majority of 60 senators. West is a top lobbyist with the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors and a key member of the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace, which comprises a few hundred business trade groups that together expect to spend close to $20 million, mostly on issue ads in Senate races. "While the minority in the House can be vocal, the minority in the Senate has real power to impact legislation," West added. The coalition's chief concern is blocking a bill, passed by the House last year, that would make it easier for unions to organize workers.

Political analysts and lobbyists say that Democrats appear to have a good shot at picking up four or five Senate seats, and, partly depending on what happens in the presidential contest, GOP losses could grow worse. (The current Senate has 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and one independent aligned with the Democratic caucus.)

One troublesome indicator: At the end of June, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $46.3 million to spend, versus $24.6 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Moreover, labor groups have said they intend to spend some $300 million on get-out-the-vote and ad campaigns to influence this year's elections at the national and state levels.

These numbers and recent polls make business groups jittery. "I think we're in relatively uncharted territory, which makes everybody anxious," says Bill Miller, political director of the chamber, which intends to spend most of its $20 million to $30 million in resources on issue ads and get-out-the-vote efforts in eight to 11 Senate races. Miller stresses that the Senate could be crucial on issues ranging from tax cuts to legal reforms. "From the business community's perspective, a focus on the Senate makes sense," he says.

The groups that are working to stem GOP losses in the Senate say they're generally focused on the same key races: Colorado (open seat), Maine (Sen. Susan Collins), Minnesota (Sen. Norm Coleman), New Hampshire (Sen. John Sununu), New Mexico (open seat), North Carolina (Sen. Elizabeth Dole), and Oregon (Sen. Gordon Smith). The list could expand to include other states such as Alaska (Sen. Ted Stevens), Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell), and Mississippi (Sen. Roger Wicker).

Two of the biggest drives to help embattled GOP senators have been launched in recent months by separate business coalitions that are zeroing in on the labor-backed legislation that easily passed the House last year but was blocked in the Senate because its allies couldn't get the 60 votes needed for cloture. Business groups say that the bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, would make it easier to unionize workers because they would only have to sign cards rather than hold an election by secret ballot.

Rick Berman, who runs his own lobbying shop (Berman and Co.), says he expects to raise almost $30 million for an anti-labor coalition, dubbed the Employee Freedom Action Committee, which he spearheads. Berman says that the coalition, whose tax status as a 501(c)(4) means that the group isn't required to disclose donor information, began running ads last month in Minnesota and New Hampshire, and now has ad blitzes under way in eight states.

"As Senate races firm up or collapse, we move our operatives around," Berman says. "Our strategy is simple: I'm trying to make this a defining issue for voters in their particular races." Berman declined to reveal his funding sources except to say that he has received donations from a "broad cross section of business people and some foundations."

A GOP operative familiar with the committee's launch earlier this year says that one of its first large backers was Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, the fiercely anti-union billionaire who to date has poured about $30 million into Freedom's Watch. Further, Mel Sembler, a Florida real estate developer, former ambassador to Italy, and Freedom's Watch board member, was "shepherding" Berman around to meet like-minded business executives.

Berman, who also runs a website called UnionFacts.com, says he's been working on the union card-check issue for almost 30 years. He cited a 1978 Senate battle in which Democrats mustered 59 votes for a bill similar to the one that passed the House last year. "My guess is that in 2009, it could conceivably be that close again."

That fear prompted the formation of the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace, which debuted in April with a national cable-TV ad campaign. The spots are the handiwork of Mike Murphy, a GOP ad maven and longtime outside adviser to John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. For other communications needs, the coalition has tapped DC Navigators, the Washington lobbying and public-affairs shop that Murphy helped to found.

Navigators Vice President Rhonda Bentz, a coalition spokeswoman, says that the business effort has pulled in some contributions "from seven-figure donors, but most are well under a million."

Although the coalition and the Employee Freedom Action Committee overlap in their efforts to block the union-backed legislation, their tactics differ somewhat, analysts say. Berman is considered more anti-union in his message, one operative says, noting that he is "trying to feed red meat to the base."

At least two other groups are also aiming to mount multimillion-dollar issue-advocacy drives to help embattled GOP senators. One is Freedom's Watch, the 501(c)(4) group backed by Vegas billionaire Adelson, which until recently had been expected to focus most of its budget on two to three dozen House races.

Earlier this month, the group announced that it had tapped a new consultant--Tony Feather, a well-wired GOP operative. Feather boasts strong ties to former White House political guru Karl Rove (who has also provided consulting help to both Freedom's Watch and Adelson) and was political director for candidate George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign.

Now a partner in the GOP consulting shop FLS Connect, Feather is expected to oversee drives in at least a half-dozen states where Republican senators need help, says one GOP operative familiar with Freedom's Watch. The source estimates that the group is likely to invest about $2 million in each race.

Similarly, the American Future Fund was set up earlier this year as a 501(c)(4) and has links with prominent GOP players: The fund, for example, has tapped Jan van Lohuizen for polling help and has used Ed Tobin, the Republican Governors Association's former executive director, as a consultant. The fund spent in the high six figures on issue ads in Minnesota a few months ago to help Coleman in his race against Democratic challenger Al Franken, and it is expected to mount drives in several other battleground states where GOP senators are facing stiff challenges.

All of these outside efforts could gain momentum as November nears, but there's no doubt that business is already opening its wallets wide to help GOP friends in the Senate. "The business community woke up after the July Fourth recess and recognized that the Senate is the ultimate backstop on damaging legislation," GOP operative and lobbyist Scott Reed said.

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