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Magazine / INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

July 13, 2010

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Democrats (100 votes)

Average score: 4.5 July 2010*

Low (0-3):      34%
Moderate (4-6): 49%
High (7-10):    16%

 
e>

Average score: 3.7 April 2010

Low (0-3):      52%
Moderate (4-6): 40%
High (7-10):     8%

e>

Average score: 2.1 Sept. 2009

Low (0-3):      76%
Moderate (4-6): 23%
High (7-10):     1%

e>

* Also receiving votes: Don't know, 1 percent.

0. "How's that for optimism? We will definitely lose a bunch of seats, but so will they."

2. "Dems are sure to lose seats given the party's large majority in this anti-incumbent year, but the losses will be in the 20-to-25 range."

2. "Little would help Obama more than the GOP winning the House and exposing their own extreme, head-in-the-sand agenda."

3. "They have to beat incumbents that have faced tough challenges before. The divisiveness of the primaries in their target [districts] has dimmed the prospects, even though the environment and the year give them momentum."

3. "That may sound low, but I wouldn't want to walk into surgery with those odds."

4. "It's a bad year to be an incumbent, but it is not necessarily a good year to be a Republican."

4. "Unless a compelling Republican narrative emerges, they will likely fall short."

5. "Plug the 'damn hole' and get some movement on jobs, and Nancy Pelosi could still be speaker in the new Congress."

5. "Anger trending their way, but they keep reminding people why they lost the majority in the first place."

5. "The DCCC's success in holding down retirements is key: Even in a bad year, incumbents are still very hard to beat and 40 seats is still a huge lift."

6. "We can do a second round of stimulus now or wonder later why we didn't do it in time for the elections."

7. "We're getting close enough to Election Day that it is getting hard to imagine a development that will significantly change the trend lines fast enough to prevent this from being a pretty bad year for Democrats."

8. "This is going from bad to worse: The economy is killing us, and BP [oil spill] just won't end."

9. "It takes a screwup of historic proportions for the Republicans not to win the House."

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?

Republicans (104 votes)

Average score: 6.6 July 2010

Low (0-3):       4%
Moderate (4-6): 38%
High (7-10):    58%

e>

Average score: 5.8 April 2010

Low (0-3):      10%
Moderate (4-6): 50%
High (7-10):    40%

e>

Average score: 3.1 Sept. 2009

Low (0-3):      59%
Moderate (4-6): 35%
High (7-10):     5%

e>

3. "To improve their odds, they would have to actually be for something and stop thinking it's all about running against Nancy Pelosi."

4. "The mountain to a majority is steep, and there is a good chance the GOP will run out of oxygen before the peak is reached."

4. "The Dems' financial edge will mean they win more close races."

5. "Republicans may be fielding good candidates in many districts, but these candidates will be very underfunded. Right now, it still seems that Republicans in many districts won't be able to get their message out and respond to Democratic attacks."

5. "Money is the mother's milk of politics, and we're running a little dry."

5. "Conservative prediction, but can't underestimate the impact of the new turbocharged dirt digging."

5.5 "The rising tide is lifting all boats. Do we have enough good candidates in the water?"

6. "Our chances would be better if the operations at the NRCC and the RNC were functional."

7. "But it is still very early -- there is a lifetime between now and then."

7. "All of the generic numbers favor the GOP in too many House races, and our vulnerable members seem to be doing fine."

7. "The only thing keeping it from being a 10 is the cash-poor RNC keeping hopes alive for the Dems."

7. "The Murtha loss gives me pause. The [GOP] leadership needs an agenda to unite its base and woo independents."

8. "Real good shot, particularly if unemployment remains in the mid-to-high 9s."

8. "A conservative count on pickups won't add up now, but the environment tips the scale."

9. "It will be 10 if Michael Steele is gone this summer."

10. "People aren't spending and businesses are keeping [their] cash: That's fear, add anger, and you have a smackdown."

Q: How many Senate seats will Democrats gain or lose this November?

Democrats (100 votes)

Average: Democrats lose 5 seats

July

Lose (1-2): 10%
Lose (3-4): 27%
Lose (5-6): 49%
Lose (7-8): 11%

e>

March

Lose (1-2):  6%
Lose (3-4): 33%
Lose (5-6): 41%
Lose (7-8): 18%

e>

Also receiving votes for July: Democrats gain 1 seat,1 percent; lose 10 seats,1 percent; don't know, 1 percent.

-2. "Dems will lose two if the races are about the candidates in the races rather than the status of the nation."

-3. "If Democrats run on their record -- health care reform, Wall Street reform, clean energy, the rest of the Obama record -- they will win. If they run from the center, they will be run over."

-4. "Senate races are a lot more visible than House races, and the GOP hurt itself by nominating high-profile extremists like Rand Paul in Kentucky and Sharron Angle in Nevada."

-4. "Some of those 'sure things' don't seem so sure for the Republicans after a few tea parties. Take Nevada for example."

-5. "The numbers might look worse for Democrats, but the closing arguments have not begun."

-5. "Some surprises holds will keep the dam from breaking -- too bad Joe Barton isn't a senator."

-6. "Dems have too many seats in play, and more are likely to join."

-6. "Who knew the R's would have as many bad candidates as the D's?"

-6. "Voters are interested in something different, but under current election law, it is virtually impossible to break up the long-standing D-R duopoly."

-10. "Democrats are making an egregious error by not passing a middle-class jobs investment package."

Q: How many Senate seats will Democrats gain or lose this November?

Republicans (103 votes)

Average: Democrats lose 6 seats

July

Lose (1-2):  0%
Lose (3-4): 17%
Lose (5-6): 49%
Lose (7-8): 28%

e>

March

Lose (1-2):  0%
Lose (3-4):  7%
Lose (5-6): 40%
Lose (7-8): 46%

e>

Also receiving votes for July: Democrats lose 9 seats, 3 percent; lose 10 seats, 2 percent; don't know, 2 percent.

-3. "The map still favors the Dems, while the mood and environment is helping the GOP."

-4. "Nevada and Illinois stay in the D column. 2010 may be remembered as the 'Year of Almost.' "

-5. "Could be as many as seven if the R's can hold Florida and win Nevada, but each of those is getting less likely."

-6. "But the number of losses has the potential to increase if Republicans can articulate a positive vision for America's future."

-6. "We've got a pretty strong breeze at our backs."

-6. "With Washington and Wisconsin in play, the target map has expanded for the GOP. Big gains in 2010 lead to Republican takeover in 2012: Kudos to [Sen. John] Cornyn and his NRSC team."

-6. "There are many more seats in play now than anyone would have guessed even a few months ago."

-6. "Unfortunately, the wrong candidates won some primaries in some key states."

-7. "They'll lose seven seats, just enough to make Obama start governing from the center and position himself for re-election."

-7. "Including Obama's seat and Biden's seat."

-8. "Democrats might lose more, as Wisconsin and Washington Senate seats appear to be in play."

-8. "The Democrats are playing defense on too many hostile fields."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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