Q: How many House seats will Democrats gain or lose this November?
DEMOCRATS (37 votes)
TODAY* JANUARY 16 AVERAGE Lose 21 Lose 15 Gain 0 percent 3 percent No change 0 percent 3 percent Lose 1 to 9 seats 0 percent 8 percent Lose 10 to 19 seats 32 percent 56 percent Lose 20 to 29 seats 51 percent 18 percent Lose 30 to 39 seats 14 percent 8 percent Lose 40 or more seats 0 percent 3 percent *Volunteered: Too early to tell, 3 percent.
Lose 10 to 19 seats
15. "I know Republicans think they're going to win more, but I doubt voters will buy what they're trying to sell."
18. "PA-12 showed wishful GOP thinking."
18. "Democrats will lose seats in Republican districts because those districts will vote for the 'real thing' this time around, not pretend Republicans. Democrats will be stronger because it will mean a caucus that votes to govern."
Lose 20 to 29 seats
22. "Losses: AR-1; AR-2; CO-4; ID-11; IL-14; IN-8; IN-9; KS-3; LA-3; MI-1; NC-3; ND-AL; NH-2; NJ-3; NM-2; NY-20; NY-23; NY-24; NY-29; OH-1; OH-16; PA-7; TN-8; VA-2; VA-5; WV-1; WI-7. Gains: DE-AL; HI-1; IL-10; LA-2; SC-2."
25. "The 'in' party or the party in power in the White House always loses seats in midterm elections, but the victory of [Pennsylvania 12th District Democrat Mark] Critz over [Tim] Burns signals bad news for Republicans' plan to take over the House in November."
27. "Lose 27 seats if unemployment is 10 percent or higher; 22 if it drops below 9 percent."
REPUBLICANS (30 votes)
TODAY* JANUARY 16 AVERAGE Lose 40 Lose 33 Gain 0 percent 0 percent No change 0 percent 0 percent Lose 1 to 9 seats 0 percent 0 percent Lose 10 to 19 seats 0 percent 0 percent Lose 20 to 29 seats 17 percent 37 percent Lose 30 to 39 seats 27 percent 29 percent Lose 40 or more seats 53 percent 31 percent *Volunteered: No idea, 3 percent.
Lose 20 to 29 seats
22. "Proving to be a wave election year, but no one is riding the wave."
28. "Lack of resources, unlearned lessons from special-election losses, and overly excited but undercommitted [GOP] members squander an opportunity to regain the majority."
Lose 30 to 39 seats
33. "The anti-establishment movement will result in some Republican casualties as well. As it stands right now, [Republicans] are looking at a net gain of 30 to 35. However, if the economy double-dips and unemployment meets or exceeds 10 percent, then anything is possible."
34. "Republicans will pick up 34 House seats if they raise the money and quit squandering their credibility and resources in races like NY-23 and PA-12. This will disappoint the White House, which would rather see the GOP at 219 than 213."
37. "A far-left Democrat majority feeling comfortable is great for Republicans, but terrible for our country."
35. "I expect this number to rise. There are some who are in danger and do not realize it."
Lose 40 or more seats
42. "Washington isn't listening to the people."
45. "A huge swath of the Democrat lawmakers who came to Congress in '06 and '08 will be defeated in November for supporting the speaker's liberal agenda on the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care."
45. "Democrats are fooling themselves if they think voters are going to forget the economy, dangerous deficits, and the health care takeover."
50. "Democrats will lose their left-wing, anti-business philosophical majority. Remaining Blue Dogs will be forced out of Nancy Pelosi's lap."
76. "Radical agenda has shocked independents."
Q: How many Senate seats will Democrats gain or lose this November?
DEMOCRATS (37 votes)
TODAY* FEBRUARY 13 AVERAGE Lose 4 Lose 4 Gain 0 percent 0 percent No change 0 percent 0 percent Lose 1 or 2 seats 5 percent 19 percent Lose 3 or 4 seats 49 percent 41 percent Lose 5 or 6 seats 35 percent 25 percent Lose 7 or 8 seats 9 percent 13 percent Lose 9 or more seats 0 percent 3 percent *Volunteered: Too early to tell, 3 percent.
Lose 3 or 4 seats
3. "[Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid will be among them."
Lose 5 or 6 seats
5. "Democrats may lose a fair share of seats, as expected of the party in power."
6. "Who cares? They don't do anything anyway."
REPUBLICANS (30 votes)
TODAY* FEBRUARY 13 AVERAGE Lose 7 Lose 7 Gain 0 percent 0 percent No change 0 percent 0 percent Lose 1 or 2 seats 0 percent 0 percent Lose 3 or 4 seats 7 percent 11 percent Lose 5 or 6 seats 20 percent 22 percent Lose 7 or 8 seats 57 percent 56 percent Lose 9 or more seats 17 percent 11 percent
Lose 5 or 6 seats
6. "State-level headwinds and lack of resources limit [Republicans'] chance to regain the majority, but 2012 sets up to be very interesting."
Lose 7 or 8 seats
7. "Democrats will lose seven seats, including the one held by Majority Leader Reid. Incredibly strong performances from Republican candidates in bright-blue states like Illinois, where Rep. Mark Kirk is showing a commanding lead, promise a punishing election season for Senate Democrats."
7. "If Democrats cannot defend incumbents in primaries, how will they win general elections?"
7. "It's too early to tell which of our candidates will make a strong challenge to some of the senators who now appear safe."
8. "If Senator Barbara Boxer loses, then Republicans could take back the Senate. It's those kinds of seats that the GOP would need to really sweep the election. However, stumbles by [Kentucky GOP nominee Rand] Paul offset [Democratic] stumbles in Connecticut. Candidates need to play error-free ball from the get-go if the Republicans are going to have a prayer of picking up enough seats to take back control."
Lose 9 or more seats
9. "Ten if Boxer goes down."
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Jon Tester, Tom Udall, Mark Warner; Reps. Jason Altmire, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Lois Capps, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Gerry Connolly , Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Phil Hare, Alcee Hastings, Rush Holt, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Frank Kratovil, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Mike McMahon, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Linda Sanchez, Jan Schakowsky, Mark Schauer, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, Bart Stupak, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.
GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, John Ensign, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, George LeMieux, Richard Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, Jeff Sessions, Olympia Snowe, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, Roy Blunt, John Boehner, Charles Boustany, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Eric Cantor, John Carter, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, David Dreier, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Darrell Issa, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Christopher Lee, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Kevin McCarthy, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Peter Roskam, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Adrian Smith, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, and Joe Wilson.
This article appears in the May 29, 2010, edition of National Journal.
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