POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009


Click here to see how top political bloggers responded to these questions.

Q: Would Democrats be helped or hurt politically if Congress enacts health care reform legislation containing abortion restrictions similar to those passed by the House?

Democrats (101 votes)

Helped           23%
Hurt             31%
Not much impact  44%
Don't know        3%

Helped

"While the abortion provision would hurt with the base, the gains of comprehensive health insurance reform passing would outweigh any negatives."

"Personally, I'm 'pro-choice,' but taking this issue off the table for Democrats in tough congressional districts should be helpful."

"Let's be honest: Not to belittle the issue, but if the only thing that was compromised to get meaningful health care reform was abortion funding, the Democrats would be stunned to have been so lucky."

Hurt

"We will not get credit with 'pro-lifers,' but the 'pro-choice' folks will sit home."

" 'Pro-choice' women, particularly Democratic 'pro-choice' women old enough to remember pre-Roe v. Wade, will have the same reaction that similar House Democratic women had this weekend: It's a big demoralizer."

"Denying poor women their reproductive right is not in Democrats' DNA."

"It won't make sense to women everywhere that with the majorities Democrats have they can't, at a minimum, do no harm to core rights for women -- hard-fought rights that have taken decades to achieve. It's a setback, and makes Democrats look weak."

Not much impact

"Most women don't even know they have abortion coverage in their insurance plans. And they won't miss it."

"Providing millions of Americans with health care overshadows the abortion debate."

"Shocking: There will be compromises made to pass health care reform."

"The Democratic Party will survive in 2010 with the House abortion language. It will not survive if we fail to pass comprehensive health care reform."

"It is a sidebar to the bigger story. What we gain with the [Catholic] bishops we probably lose with some 'pro-choice' activists."

"As a 'pro-choice' consultant, I'd love to say it hurts, but I think it will likely have not much impact. Voters are disengaged on this issue, and base voters have nowhere to go."

Q: Would Democrats be helped or hurt politically if Congress enacts health care reform legislation containing abortion restrictions similar to those passed by the House?

Republicans (100 votes)

Helped           27%
Hurt             47%
Not much impact  25%
Helped and hurt   1%

Helped

"The package will be frightening enough without additional abortion baggage."

"[Rep.] Bart Stupak [D-Mich.] is doing his party a huge favor. Liberals have plenty of wins in the health care bill."

"They are already on record for voting for it and taking the hits, but getting something enacted will help show their base and independents that they can follow through on promises."

"It would show their intentions are more focused on actual health care as opposed to a narrow constituency."

Hurt

"It would be amazing if they alienate their most passionate supporters, 'pro-abortion' women, as they pass their most cherished legislative item. I think the whole bill will be bad for them, but adding this provision is just a cherry on top of the sundae."

"Some elements of the Democratic base are paying attention. And they will be really upset."

"Democrats are in a no-win situation: If it passes with restrictions, the liberal base will be unforgiving. If the Democrats strip the abortion restriction from the bill, they'll be perceived as caving in to the ideological special interests."

"The Democrat base would question the price Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama were willing to pay, i.e., selling out to get health care reform."

"[Harry] Reid surely would have preferred Pelosi making a deal with some other devil."

"Internal Democratic politics would be set on fire."

Not much impact

"In some districts, it could hurt; and in others, help. The party, as a party, will not be impacted much, if at all."

"Members will undoubtedly think they will be hurt, but most voters are not nearly as 'pro-abortion' as the House Democratic Caucus."

"The Democrats know the 'pro-choice' base might be upset, but no one really thinks they will be flocking to the Grand Old Party, do they?"

Q: In light of the off-year election results, what's the bigger political priority for your own party right now, motivating its base or winning independents?

Democrats (101 votes)

Motivating its base   26 percent
Winning independents  64 percent
Both (volunteered)    11 percent

Motivating its base

"Democrats need to motivate young people, African-Americans, and Latinos to vote in much larger numbers in 2010 than they did in 2009. If they don't, we will suffer some big-time losses."

"You need a foundation before you can add any independents."

"Will get killed in the midterm elections unless our base is fired up and engaged."

Winning independents

"The base will be motivated enough by the stranglehold the Far Right has on the Republican Party."

"Spin as much as you want, [but] Obama's policies are becoming increasingly wearisome for the great nonideological middle of the political spectrum, aka independents."

"With just 21 percent of the electorate self-identifying as liberal, Democrats must view moderate voters as their base. We did that successfully in '06 and '08. And we must keep it up, or we cannot maintain our majorities."

"The 'surge' voter phenomenon is over: time to rebuild the coalition of the base and independents."

"Holding independents who delivered a number of congressional seats will be critical for next year's congressional election."

"It will be a challenge to motivate the Democratic base in an off-year election, which will make reaching out to independents critical for success in 2010."

"Bases are wonderful. It's great when they are inspired to vote. They make us feel good. Voters in the middle do this little thing called deciding elections."

Both

"There isn't anything to win if we don't do both."

Q: In light of the off-year election results, what's the bigger political priority for your own party right now, motivating its base or winning independents?

Republicans (100 votes)

Motivating its base   9 percent
Winning independents 89 percent
Both (volunteered)    2 percent

Motivating its base

"That's the difference in excitement and ultimately winning or losing."

"Fifty-eight million people voted for [John] McCain; 45 million votes would sweep the midterms. You do the math."

Winning independents

"We can pick up seats with a motivated base, but we can't get within shooting distance of a majority without winning over independents."

"The base couldn't be more energized. We need to win independents by running inclusive, solutions-oriented campaigns."

"It has been and continues to be all about winning independents. Carrying their votes 2-to-1 in both Virginia and New Jersey was a major political development and a sharp departure from 2006 and 2008."

"Obama will motive the GOP base just fine by himself; party needs to appeal to the growing center."

"If we can convince independents that we have a jobs-creation plan that will work, we can win a lot of seats in 2010."

"Some Republicans are confusing buyer's remorse about the Democrats with liking the GOP."

"Not even close. As New York's 23rd Congressional District showed, even in safe-GOP areas, conservatives need moderate votes to win."

"If our party does not yet get the fact that the base is not going anywhere, God help us."

"The base is already motivated, if not rabid. But one of these days we're going to have to figure out how to talk to moderates."

Both

"For Republicans to have a strong year in 2010, they must mobilize their base to get out the vote while convincing independents that one-size-fits-all Democratic majority control is hurting the country."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Terry McAuliffe, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Fletcher, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Barry Jackson, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Connie Partoyan, Dana Perino, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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