INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, July 18, 2009


Q: Name and rank the two most politically risky ways to amend the tax code to pay for health care reform.

Democrats (90 votes)

                                    1st-place    2nd-place
                                      votes        votes 
Limit the tax break on
  itemized deductions                  40%          26% 
Limit the tax benefit for 
  "Cadillac" employer- 
  sponsored health plans               32%          24%
Tax sugary drinks 16% 22%
Increase income taxes on the wealthy    8%          16%
Limit the tax benefit for wealthy 
  individuals with employer-sponsored
  health plans                          4%          13%

Limit tax break on itemized deductions

"Anybody with a mortgage understands this."

"This would quickly turn into a 'middle-class tax raise' and fly in the face of embedded behaviors."

"Taxpayers will be focused on this as they file their returns and not when the legislation passes. It will be a surprise that drives itemizers crazy."

"If it looks like it inflicts pain on the middle class, which I'm guessing is very possible, then we've got problems."

Limit tax benefit for "Cadillac" plans

"Telling people they can 'keep their plan if they like it,' then taxing them for doing that, will backfire."

"This method of paying for health care reform manages the unlikely feat of uniting organized labor and major corporations in opposition. It could marshal forces too powerful for a reform bill to survive."

"This raises taxes on people making less than $250,000, something the president promised he would not do."

Tax sugary drinks

"Gov. [David] Paterson tried this in New York. And his proposal created a political firestorm."

"If that doesn't come off as 'Nanny State,' I don't know what would."

Increase income taxes on the wealthy

"The Republicans already have the 'spend' piece with the stimulus. And if they get the 'tax' piece, they will have their 2010 campaign ready to go."

Limit tax benefit for wealthy individuals with employer-sponsored plans

"President Obama spent nearly $100 million on TV ads attacking John McCain for his plan to tax benefits: It is crazy for Obama to pay for health care by taxing benefits."

Q: Name and rank the two most politically risky ways to amend the tax code to pay for health care reform.

Republicans (92 votes)

                                    1st-place    2nd-place
                                      votes        votes 
Limit the tax break on
  itemized deductions                  46%          20% 
Tax sugary drinks                      22%          26%
Limit the tax benefit for "Cadillac"
  employer-sponsored health plans      14%          20%
Increase income taxes on the wealthy   13%          27%
Limit the tax benefit for wealthy 
  individuals with employer-sponsored 
  health plans                          4%           8%

Limit tax break on itemized deductions

"I'd like to see the White House message against a donation to the Wounded Warrior program or the Disabled American Veterans."

"Charitable groups and the residential real estate industry look at these limits as a death threat."

"Limiting the tax break on itemized deductions is a killer. That's how normal people and small business keep their tax burden down."

"The Bush tax cuts are due to expire and the rates are going to increase. An additional tax increase on the wealthy will be yet another tax on those who create jobs. We don't need to stifle job creation right now."

Tax sugary drinsk

"If they do this, Obama will have lied to America. People that earn less than $250,000 enjoy soda too."

"It affects everyone. And it reeks of nanny government and seems silly."

"And potato chips, whole milk, and then beer?"

Limit tax benefit for "Cadillac" plans

"Nobody believes they are the recipients of 'Cadillac' programs."

" 'Cadillac' hits Democratic base voters: union members who have negotiated many of these plans."

Increase income taxes on the wealthy

"The surest way to bring investment and economic recovery to a screeching halt just in time for the midterm elections."

"The 'wealthy' will open their checkbooks to give to challengers against incumbents who support the tax increase."

Limit tax benefit for wealthy individuals with employer-sponsored plans

"Unions know that once you set a bar, it is easy to lower it."

Q: On balance, would Sarah Palin be more of an asset or a liability in campaigning for Republicans in competitive 2010 races?

Democrats (90 votes)

More of an asset     38%
More of a liability  59%
Depends               3%

Asset

"Thanks in part to the obsessive coverage, Palin remains as relevant as ever and a big draw."

"She still has the allure of a star that attracts the faithful and their dollars. Democrats and independents don't attend Republican fundraisers."

"With Democrats holding so many traditionally conservative seats in a midterm election, Palin will have plenty of invitations to campaign for Republican candidates. She can help the GOP as a fundraiser and motivator if she picks her spots wisely."

"She will help them raise dollars and fill arenas, put people in seats. Her strongest negative is that she is inexperienced, but that only comes into play when the election is about her."

Liability

"She's great with the GOP base, but like [Rush] Limbaugh and [Newt] Gingrich, she's poison with independent voters."

"She would have done a decent job at helping out the Republicans in '10 if she hadn't thrown a fit and run off the court in the middle of the game."

"Simple: She is not the right face for a revitalized Republican Party."

"In a general election, as of July 2009, it is a negative. I am hedging my statement because there have been more unlikely rebrandings in American political history. Richard Nixon, failed California gubernatorial candidate, anyone?"

"As Republicans become a smaller part of the electorate, independents become critical to the Republicans' ability to be competitive. Independents don't like Sarah Palin."

"She's a lightning rod for controversy and becomes more annoying and less convincing the more Americans hear from her. She attracts crowds but not for the right reasons."

"As a fundraiser, she is fine; in a general election, a disaster."

Q: On balance, would Sarah Palin be more of an asset or a liability in campaigning for Republicans in competitive 2010 races?

Republicans (93 votes)

More of an asset     53%
More of a liability  42%
Depends               5%

Asset

"Red-district Democrats should fear her. She is a punch line in major cities but touches a nerve in rural America."

"She'll only campaign in areas it'll help. She'll be strong everywhere [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi isn't, and weak everywhere Pelosi is strong."

"Her liabilities extend only to her, whereas the enthusiasm she generates fills up phone banks and gets precincts walked."

"You'll get lots of press and look-see interest; great for fundraisers, everyone will want a picture with her. Controlling the message is the only challenge, but she's a smooth speaker."

"She is one of the few stars left in the party and the only female one."

"She is wildly popular among Republicans. And even unaffiliated voters seem to think she got a raw deal from the national news media."

"Just like that movie with Cameron Diaz, there's just something about Sarah. Don't ask me to explain it, though."

Liability

"She brings too much additional unwanted attention: would be like having the circus come to town."

"She's not stable!"

"Is Sarah Palin really the face we want to project to the American people? Jeez, where do we find these people?"

"Independent voters don't like controversy surrounding public figures."

"Anyone that needs Palin to mobilize the base next year should not be running."

"Sarah Palin visiting would be like Dan Quayle visiting: nice photos but bad press."

"Key word is 'competitive' races, meaning swing voters. And Palin is poison among swing voters."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bjornson, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, George LeMieux, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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