INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, May 2, 2009


Click here to see how prominent political bloggers responded to these questions. Plus: Click here to see what Insiders thought of Obama's performance during his first 100 days.

Q: What impact will Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to become a Democrat have on the Republican Party?

Democrats (89 votes)

Strengthen hand of conservatives who want to unseat moderates  51 percent
Weaken hand of conservatives who want to unseat moderates      48 percent 
Neither (volunteered)                                           1 percent

Strengthen the conservatives' hand

"The Far Right will be just great at winning those primaries, but that is where the winning streak will end."

"It is hard to strengthen the moderates if they don't exist."

"Moderates will be less likely to run in statewide primaries and more likely to switch parties."

"But Specter will roll to victory. And [Rush] Limbaugh and [Sean] Hannity can have their future conventions in a pup tent."

"Republicans can't be that dumb."

"They're in full wilderness-burn-the-bridges-rediscover-our-principles mode--God love 'em. Keep at it."

"The conservatives simply argue that 'Guys like Specter aren't reliable Republicans, so we don't need them anyway.' "

Weaken the conservatives' hand

"If it does not, the Republican Party gets smaller until they realize they need a moderate wing."

"The Republicans are screwed. And they better get the conservatives to back off, or they will become even more irrelevant."

"The arc of American politics is bending slowly and steadily toward moderation. I believe the Specter move will weaken the hand of conservatives within the Republican Party."

"As with any recovery process, it will take pain for the GOP to change its ways from moving to the right. The question is, 'Is Specter's decision enough pain?' "

"In the long-term, Specter's departure from the Republican Party will weaken the hand of conservatives, as it proves once again that the political parties which abandon their members in the center, as the GOP has with Specter, will lose the great middle of the road where so many Americans reside politically."

"If I were them, I would be kissing the feet of the two women from Maine."

Q: What impact will Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to become a Democrat have on the Republican Party?

Republicans (85 votes)

Strengthen hand of conservatives who want to unseat moderates  60 percent
Weaken hand of conservatives who want to unseat moderates      25 percent 
No effect; too soon to tell (volunteered)                      15 percent

Strengthen the conservatives' hand

"This will embolden and fire up the base."

"There is a regressive gene among some conservatives who think that winning an election is proof of having sold out principles."

"They're bringing needed accountability to weasel pols."

"Can Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins be far behind?"

"We cannot be a party of fiscal conservatives when some members spend like drunken sailors. Clean them out."

"Until [Pat] Toomey loses [Pennsylvania's 2010 Senate race]. Then perhaps sanity will prevail, and these dolts will realize that they need to actually be in power to effect change."

"Tough to counsel 'Big Tent' when the moderate camels seek greener pastures elsewhere."

"By 2011, not counting Maine, the GOP will have finally cut off the Northeast and let it float to sea, as Goldwater suggested so long ago."

"It'll strengthen their hands, because more and more they're what's left--happy with the courage of their own convictions and at no risk that they'll ever have to act on them because they don't have the votes."

"Hear those bells? They're sounding the death toll of the Republican Party. Waiting for Obama to fail is not a formula for success."

Weaken the conservatives' hand

"We cannot hope to become a majority party again if we continue to kick out all the moderates or make it untenable for them to remain."

"It weakens the hand of conservatives who may or may not want to unseat moderates. It is a complete and utter disaster, especially if Specter now reverses field on 'card check.' "

Volunteered responses

"Unclear, but it makes Pennsylvania a make-or-break state for conservatives in terms of this tactic."

Q: Does your party stand to gain or lose politically if a torture commission is established?

Democrats (94 votes)

Gain                     41 percent 
Lose                     49 percent
Don't know (volunteeed)   5 percent
Neither (volunteered)     4 percent

Gain

"Because the findings will reflect so badly on America, it will remind people why they wanted Obama and will demonize Bush and his puppets."

"Once we have pictures from the commission, voters will recoil at the abuses of the Bush administration like they did after Abu Ghraib."

"This is about the rule of law and not protecting any political party."

"Let the Republican Party defend torture. We have to clear the air and hold people accountable. This issue is not simply going to disappear."

"It conveys to the American people that this was wrong and unacceptable ... and tells the world there is a seriousness of purpose to the president's commitment to change."

"It would shine a bright light on the horrible illegal acts carried out by the Bush administration. Could taint the Republican brand for years."

Lose

"The commission will expose congressional Democrats' complicity in the policy. They did nothing to stop the war, the spending, and the torture policy. Blame can be sticky."

"This torture commission idea is politically tone-deaf. Voters don't want political leaders spending their time looking in the rearview mirror."

"We have won all we need politically on this issue: We need to move on!"

"I think that this would be so rancorous that if one were established, Obama and Democrats would have much greater difficulty finding Republican partners on critical matters such as health care reform."

"The American people are more willing to engage in whatever means are necessary to combat the enemy."

"It wouldn't be good for the country, so it can't be good for Democrats."

"The public will eventually see this as a political vendetta rather than a prosecution of the law."

Q: Does your party stand to gain or lose politically if a torture commission is established?

Republicans (92 votes)

Gain                                    49 percent 
Lose                                    47 percent
Helps both parties' bases (volunteered)  2 percent
Hurts country (volunteered)              2 percent

Gain

"The Democrats in Congress were there all the way, too. Just adds to the 'weak on defense' image of their party."

"Democrats are overplaying their hand. Public wants to remain safe and isn't interested in knowing exactly how."

"A truth commission will expose the truth that enhanced interrogation techniques proved successful."

"Some Democrats' selective memories will not look so good under oath."

"The more people get a chance to hear how sympathetic Democrats are to bad guys, the more it reinforces the impression that they're soft on the people who least deserve it."

"Democrats' putting America's defenders on trial? Excellent for GOP."

"It will highlight why we have not been attacked the past eight years, and will show the Democrats want to weaken our national security."

Lose

"Democrats want to sensationalize everything."

"Anything with the Bush name in the mix is still toxic."

"Republicans can only lose. They were the party in power, and liberal Democrats need to lay the blame and then drag people through the mud."

"The combination of the media and the facts will lead more to conclude the Bush administration did the unacceptable than the number who will decide this is partisan overreaching."

"The commission would be designed to hurt the GOP."

"While certain Democrats will be exposed as having been in the know, the overarching message will be about Bush. And the longer people think Republicans equal Bush, the worse for us."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bjornson, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Bob Maloney Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Kevin Shuvalov, Sean Sinclair Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, George LeMieux, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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