INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, Feb. 7, 2009


Q: How much damage have controversies surrounding the nominations of Tom Daschle, Timothy Geithner, and William Lynn done to President Obama's image?

Democrats (93 votes)

A great deal     6 percent
Some            39 percent 
Only a little   42 percent
None            13 percent

A great deal

"It seems like politics as usual."

"The public's perception of an Obama presidency is being shaped in the first months, and competency is a big-deal test."

Some

"Whoever is doing the vetting may want to schedule another eye appointment."

"Lobbyists don't look so bad after this."

"He has lost some of the ethical high ground by placing the bar high, then banging his head into it."

"It has tarnished the 'era of responsibility' message."

"They begin to make Obama look like every other politician. That is a honeymoon killer."

"You can't forget [Bill] Richardson."

"The limousine-liberal image gives rich fodder to opponents."

Only a little

"Voters see him as trying to fix the system they agree is broken."

"I do not think that the events have helped, but they are not fatal as long as they are faced up-front and not hidden or excused."

"Only a little at the moment with the general public, but the media has something to talk about, as do the conservatives. This doesn't matter for now with all the economic problems, but he needs to stop this 'drip, drip' before a pattern develops."

"I think the tax issues that keep emerging have more to say about finding any politician who hasn't done something slippery with their taxes than Obama's image. Is it just impossible for these guys to pay their taxes like everyone else?"

"If the policies he is identified with work, these are footnotes. If the policies don't work, these become part of a new narrative."

None

"With the economy collapsing around us, these are sideshows that only the most 'insider' of Democratic insiders will grouse about and desperate Republicans will overly optimistically revel in."

Q: How much damage have controversies surrounding the nominations of Tom Daschle, Timothy Geithner, and William Lynn done to President Obama's image?

Republicans (94 votes)

A great deal      9 percent
Some             45 percent
Only a little    35 percent
None             12 percent

A great deal

"Hypocrisy is the deadliest sin in politics. If paying higher taxes is patriotic, what is it when you cheat on them?"

"The controversies have shown a double standard for his picks versus the rest of the mopes who pay their taxes, and it resonates with the average American: 'If the secretary of the Treasury can cheat on his taxes, why should I pay mine?' "

Some

"Their impact is incremental: It's akin to filling Obama's pockets with lead--with each step he becomes less able to walk across the water."

"Outside the Beltway, it is chipping away at the perception that President Obama is above the fray. Inside the Beltway, it undermines the sense that his team does not make careless mistakes."

"Obama set the bar so high, so any resemblance to 'politics as usual' will hurt him more than previous presidents."

"These kinds of missteps show the voters the distance between the promise and the reality of Barack Obama."

"Pretty tough to tarnish the halo just yet, but people who don't pay taxes are going to have a hard time raising them on people who do."

"Do you have to forget to pay taxes to get a job in this administration?"

Only a little

"The American people are giving him a break, but it does shorten the honeymoon when these bad stories come out."

"If he moves decisively on the economy, this will all be forgotten."

"But when the issue is paying taxes, every little bit hurts."

None

"There is something about the nomination process that requires a little blood on the floor. As long as someone goes down, the beast is fed and satisfied."

"Inside-the-Beltway chatter, not of any relevance to anyone else who is rightfully worried about the economy."

"Because the media refuse to hold their anointed one accountable."

Q: Based on events of recent weeks, how much sway will President Obama have over congressional Democrats? (Rate on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being a great deal of sway and 1 being hardly any.)

Democrats (93 votes)

Average 3.9

Great deal of sway (5)

5  19% 
4  58%
3  22%
2   0%
1   1%

Hardly any sway (1)

5. "What Obama wants Obama is going to get, at least right now. He's got Roosevelt-after-the-1932-election kind of authority."

5. "He still has those 13 million-plus names in his file."

4. "Congressional Democrats want to be team players, provided they do not have to walk off the cliff the way the Republicans did for Bush."

4. "Democrats will be hard-pressed to differ with this clearly popular young president. He has a huge reservoir of goodwill within his party."

4. "Those with the 11 percent approval rating want to be close to 'the one' with the 68 percent approval rating."

4. "With [Obama's] 70 percent approval rating, they still want to be seen with him. But, in the back of their minds, 1993 lingers. No one wants to be [a losing incumbent like] Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky."

4. "They're not going to roll over and play dead, but they know a winner when they see one."

4. "Congressional Democrats like Obama, want him to succeed, and will follow his lead for the next six months. After that, results will matter more."

3. "He will have enough, given his popularity. But they will always do what's in their best interest first."

3. "As long as he is popular, congressional Democrats will follow. However, they are not going to get used, so the administration needs to be a real partner."

3. "Obama will have some say, but [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi continues to make clear that there is only one 'speaker' at a time."

Q: Based on events of recent weeks, how much sway will President Obama have over congressional Democrats? (Rate on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being a great deal of sway and 1 being hardly any.)

Republicans (92 votes)

Average 3.2

Great deal of sway (5)

5   4%
4  41%
3  33%
2  15%
1   7%

Hardly any sway (1)

5. "He's still their gravy train. They gotta go with him."

4. "The forces that propelled the Democrats into power are Obama acolytes. And the congressional Democrats won't be quick to forget it."

4. "Congressional Democrats clearly won't like many of the president's initiatives, but they know where their bread is buttered. And the 2010 elections are rapidly approaching."

4. "He is considerably more popular than congressional leaders. They abandon support for the president at their own peril."

3. "They know he's the president, but many of them still view him as a junior senator from Illinois. He needs to publicly lean on them."

3. "It remains to be seen how much of his capital the president is truly willing to expend to move an at-times intransigent caucus."

3. "Because he is an 'outsider,' he doesn't have a lot of 'go-to' former colleagues he can rely on to carry his agenda. [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid and [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi seem to have little appetite for listening to much he has to say."

2. "To wit: 'I-don't-work-for-Obama' Reid and 'of-course-we-wrote-it-we-won' Pelosi."

2. "The way they reworked the stimulus package shows their game plan: Toe the Obama line in public, and do whatever they want behind his back."

1. "If he were in control, the House [stimulus] bill would have been more focused and had none of the provisions he's embarrassed to talk about."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Larry Rasky, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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