INSIDE WASHINGTON

Congressional Insiders Poll

by Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell

Saturday, Jan. 31, 2009


Q: Roughly how much longer do you expect the recession to continue?

Democrats (40 votes)

6 months or less      3 percent
7 to 12 months       15 percent
13 to 23 months      63 percent
24 months or longer  20 percent

6 months or less

"I think that we should begin to see a slight turnaround. If we do not, God help us all."

7 to 12 months

"Much closer to 12 than 7."

13 to 23 months

"We still don't know the extent of the financial crisis, which is now spreading to every area of the economy. We'll pull out, but it's a deep ditch. Way to go, Bushie."

24 months or longer

"You can't turn an economy as big as ours on a dime. And it will take time for a course correction."

"It could be shorter if we ever get around to doing what we claimed to stand for -- jobs, not tax cuts."

"This is not ending in the immediate future. We can do things to shorten it, hopefully, but this is hanging around for a long time."

"Gonna take a long time to clean up this mess."

Q: Roughly how much longer do you expect the recession to continue?

Republicans (37 votes)

6 months or less               3 percent
7 to 12 months                19 percent
13 to 23 months               62 percent
24 months or longer           11 percent
Other responses (volunteered)  5 percent

6 months or less

"In many communities, home prices are steady. And in others, sales are actually increasing."

13 to 23 months

"The mass layoffs we're now seeing indicate that the recession has yet to fully infiltrate the middle class. Even if Washington pushes every button right over the next few months, it will take some time for consumers to regain confidence and markets to fully stabilize."

"Longer if the Obama stimulus passes as is."

"It's going to get worse before it turns around."

"The real variable is when the Democrats start to have any ownership over our problems."

"Although I'm not paranoid, I truly believe that most of these economic 'efforts' are designed to turn things around three and a half years from now."

24 months or longer

"None of the policies that are being enacted will inject enough life into our economy to get us out of this recession. If anything, the policies will prolong the recession."

"Another disastrous housing wave is on the way. This will take years."

Other responses

"We will not be out of the woods for many months to come. Whenever the recession 'officially' ends, it will not be in time to save the Democrats from a stinging midterm defeat. That is all the more reason for Republicans to avoid any association with cures that are unpopular and generate nasty unforeseen consequences."

"It will continue until investors are welcomed back to the U.S. marketplace."

Q: From your party's perspective, is it desirable to have significant Republican support for enactment of the economic stimulus bill?

Democrats (40 votes)

Yes 80 percent
No  20 percent

Yes

"The Republicans got us into this mess, and now they have the audacity to claim that they have the ideas to get us out. It would still be desirable to have a bipartisan bill if it doesn't change the direction we want to go too much."

"Both parties need to make addressing the economy a nonpartisan issue -- particularly considering the fact that eight years of Bush policies did contribute to the current state of the economy."

"It would help with our message of coming together in a bipartisan way. But if they don't, they will continue to dig their own hole."

"Desirable, yes; necessary (at least in the House), no."

"It would be nice, but I don't believe in the tooth fairy."

"President Obama extended a hand of bipartisanship to congressional Republicans. But, unfortunately, they slapped it away."

"Yes, it would be better for the country if both parties pulled together. But if Republicans decide to continue to be naysayers, they will be further marginalized in the eyes of the public."

"Cooperation would be good as long as we don't have to compromise our principles."

"Congress doesn't seem to be as ready for meaningful post-partisanship as President Obama is."

"It is desirable, but if it works and no Republicans support the stimulus bill, 2010 is going to be great for the Democratic Party."

" ... but we won!"

No

"Why bother to win the hearts and minds of Americans if the first thing we do is sell our soul to try to buy votes? We should do what we think is right, try to work with those who want to cooperate, then let people vote their conscience and let the American voters decide who got it right or wrong."

"I do think that a decent amount of Republican support is important, but 'significant' is not necessary."

"Every president bends to get GOP support, but then they're disappointed. Republicans have no interest in governing, only 'cut, squeeze, and trim.' "

"They messed up the economy. And the people voted for change."

Q: From your party's perspective, is it desirable to have significant Republican support for enactment of the economic stimulus bill?

Republicans (37 votes)

Yes 32 percent
No  68 percent

Yes

"At the end of the day, we do need a bipartisan package that can reverse the economic trend."

"It'd certainly be nice, but this needs to get done regardless of how the final vote breaks down."

"Our strategy of blaming the partisanship rancor on the House Democrats will not work at this time, because Obama's extending his hand. Simply saying 'no' will backfire on us."

"Of course it would be nice to pass a truly bipartisan effort, because both parties agree that the national economy needs a shot in the arm. But 2011 spending and Medicare waivers for states aren't going to accomplish that goal."

No

"This needs to be clearly a Democrat initiative so blame is clear when money is misspent."

"It is a bad bill that will accomplish none of its stated objectives. It will saddle our children and grandchildren with billions of dollars of debt, and will not inject enough money into the economy to get us out of this recession."

"Obama is tied to his Democrats. And when they write partisan bills, they shouldn't expect bipartisan outcomes."

"Too much pork to deserve any member's vote."

"The only thing stimulated by this proposal is a bigger, bloated government."

"Republicans would be making an enormous mistake to 'stick their fingerprints on the murder weapon' by voting for the Obama/Pelosi stimulus bill. This bill is at odds with core GOP principles; it will trigger -- and be used to justify -- future tax hikes."

"Not the bill that [House Appropriations] Chairman [David] Obey wrote."

"Not unless it improves dramatically."

"Good for America? Yes. Good for our party? No."

"This vote won't matter by the next election, but being opposed to the reckless spending helps the GOP get back to its core message."

"Let them wear this thing around their necks for the next two and four years."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Jon Tester; Reps. Jason Altmire, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Frank Kratovil, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.

GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, Roy Blunt, John Boehner, Charles Boustany, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Eric Cantor, John Carter, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, David Dreier, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Darrell Issa, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Christopher Lee, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Kevin McCarthy, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, and Joe Wilson.

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