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Democrats (74 votes)
Q. Who will win the presidential election?
John McCain 0% Barack Obama 100%
Q. Who will win each of these five states?
Florida McCain 16% Obama 84%
Indiana McCain 61% Obama 39%
Missouri McCain 56% Obama 44%
Montana McCain 77% Obama 23%
Pennsylvania McCain 1% Obama 99%
Q. What will be the Electoral College tally?
John McCain 201 Barack Obama 337
Q. How many seats will Democrats pick up in the Senate?
7
Q. Who will win these Senate races?
Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 17% Al Franken (D) 82% Dean Barkley (I)
Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 75% Ronnie Musgrove (D) 25%
New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) 3% Jeanne Shaheen (D) 97%
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 8% Kay Hagan (D) 92%
Q. How many seats will Democrats pick up in the House?
24
Q. Who will win these House races?
Connecticut 04 Rep. Christopher Shays (R) 49% Jim Himes (D) 51%
Pennsylvania 11 Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 34% Lou Barletta (R) 66%
Q. Who will win the North Carolina governor's race?
Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) 73% Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) 27%
Q. Will the California gay-marriage ban initiative pass or fail?
Pass 25% Fail 75%
Q. When will the loser of the presidential election concede?
Before midnight (EST) 70% After midnight (EST) 30%
Q. What will be the biggest surprise on Election Night?
"Fox News will announce the next president as 'Barack Hussein Obama.' "
"[The presidential contest in] Texas will be a single-digit race, perhaps as close as 5 percent."
"Obama wins Alaska."
"Obama wins big and has long coattails because in many states his core supporters--new voters, African-Americans, Latinos--turn out in droves, and they have been underweighted in polls."
"[Rep.] John Murtha [D-Pa.] will lose."
"[Sen.] Saxby [Chambliss, R-Ga.] loses Senate seat--revenge."
"John McCain will give his best speech of the campaign, even though it will be a concession speech, because the handlers will be gone. And he will ask America to unite, because the problems are too big for more division."
"Despite a pro-incumbent redistricting, California will see three additional Republican House seats go Democratic."
"Paul Begala will say something nice about McCain; Fred Barnes, likewise, about Obama."
"The unraveling of the Republican Party out West when Virginia is declared early in the evening, adversely affecting the Republican vote out West."
"Obama wins Indiana and North Dakota."
"[Democrat] Linda Ketner elected to the House from South Carolina."
"The size and scope of Obama's win: It won't be close in either electoral or popular votes."
National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.
Republicans (71 votes)
Q. Who will win the presidential election?
John McCain 18% Barack Obama 82%
Q. Who will win each of these five states?
Florida McCain 44% Obama 56%
Indiana McCain 82% Obama 18%
Missouri McCain 54% Obama 46%
Montana McCain 86% Obama 14%
Pennsylvania McCain 7% Obama 93%
Q. What will be the Electoral College tally?
John McCain 212 Barack Obama 326
Q. How many seats will Democrats pick up in the Senate?
7
Q. Who will win these Senate races?
Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 61% Al Franken (D) 39% Dean Barkley (I)
Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 86% Ronnie Musgrove (D) 14%
New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) 15% Jeanne Shaheen (D) 85%
North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 17% Kay Hagan (D) 83%
Q. How many seats will Democrats pick up in the House?
24
Q. Who will win these House races?
Connecticut 04 Rep. Christopher Shays (R) 62% Jim Himes (D) 38%
Pennsylvania 11 Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 57% Lou Barletta (R) 43%
Q. Who will win the North Carolina governor's race?
Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) 35% Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) 65%
Q. Will the California gay-marriage ban initiative pass or fail?
Pass 40% Fail 60%
Q. When will the loser of the presidential election concede?
Before midnight (EST) 69% After midnight (EST) 31%
Q. What will be the biggest surprise on Election Night?
"If Republicans suffer less than 25 House losses and only lose five Senate seats or less."
"Anti-incumbent trend boots [Rep. John] Murtha [D-Pa.], and a few more from both parties who aren't expecting it."
"[Alaska Republican] Ted Stevens wins re-election to the U.S. Senate."
"Obama and Democrats do not get 60 votes in the Senate."
"The total annihilation of the GOP at every level. Polls predict it's coming, but it's still shocking on Election Night."
"The CW and MSM will be in shock when the polls, including the exits, are wrong."
"All the red states Obama wins. And [Republican Sen.] Gordon Smith winning Oregon."
"Obama wins North Dakota."
"Defying the national Democratic landslide, Rep. Chris Shays holds on in Connecticut, remaining the sole House GOPer in the Northeast."
"John Sununu comes back from near-certain defeat."
"There are going to be a lot of surprises, but [Senate MinorityLeader] Mitch McConnell losing in Kentucky will be foremost among them."
"Gov. Palin will be wearing her own clothes."
"McCain wins: no bigger surprise or upset than that."
"The landslide and the 'Obama effect'--the reverse of 'Bradley effect.' "
"Biggest surprise is that McCain will actually win a few tough states like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana."
National Journal Insiders
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.
About Insiders Poll
- A weekly survey of members of Congress or political operatives about topics in the news.
Previously in Insiders Poll
- Political Insiders Poll (10/25/2008)
- Political Insiders Poll (10/18/2008)
- Political Insiders Poll (10/11/2008)
- Congressional Insiders Poll (10/04/2008)
- Congressional Insiders Poll (09/27/2008)