INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, Oct. 25, 2008


Q: How are undecided voters going to break in the presidential race?

Democrats (82 votes)

Heavily toward McCain          5 percent
Slightly toward McCain        29 percent
Slightly toward Obama         40 percent
Heavily toward Obama          22 percent
Don't know; too soon to tell 
   (volunteered)               4 percent

Heavily toward McCain

"Seniors sitting on the fence and independents [will] move to McCain."

Slightly toward McCain

"If a voter hasn't moved to Obama by now, after the market crash and McCain's poor debate performances in a 'wrong-track' environment that already favors Obama, the voter will either vote for McCain or not vote at all."

"It appears that most undecideds are Republican-leaning. They will come home on Election Day."

"If they haven't been able to decide on Obama by now, something is holding them back. And it's not economic policy, experience, or change."

"More undecided voters will break toward a name they've known longer."

Slightly toward Obama

"If Obama maintains his huge spending advantage on TV, it should have a small effect with the remaining undecided voters."

"People want to vote for a winner: McCain looks and acts like a loser."

"McCain may make the last two weeks about his independence from Bush, and chip away at Obama's national lead with undecideds, but not enough to make the difference."

"While traveling throughout Ohio, [I found that] voters who said they would not vote for Obama--because of race or the fact that he beat [Hillary Rodham] Clinton--are looking at their 401(k)s and voting their pocketbook. It's pretty impressive."

"The momentum and the advertising budget will be in Obama's favor. This should help a bit with the undecideds."

"The groundswell is building. And I think most undecideds will get caught up in it for Obama."

Heavily toward Obama

"Obama's already toying with breakthrough territory, but the remaining undecideds should break for 'change,' not having opted for the status quo to date."

"Everything, just everything, is moving Obama's way right now."

Republicans (89 votes)

Heavily toward McCain   13 percent
Slightly toward McCain  35 percent
Slightly toward Obama   37 percent
Heavily toward Obama    11 percent
Don't know; depends 
   (volunteered)         3 percent

Heavily toward McCain

"If they're not with 'the One' now, they're not ever gonna be."

"If the primaries are any indication whatsoever of what to expect in the general election, then you would have to make this prediction. Those self-describing as 'undecided' in the [Democratic] primaries went heavily for Sen. [Hillary Rodham] Clinton. That is simple fact."

Slightly toward McCain

"Obama hasn't closed the deal with some of these voters yet, even though the environment and spending favor him."

"Doubts about Obama's readiness will prompt many late deciders toward the more experienced alternative."

"Despite [Obama's] outspending McCain and having every advantage of history and circumstances, voters are not sold on Obama and will play a safe bet with McCain."

"Almost all elections tighten up as they finish, but it won't be enough."

"If voters are still really undecided after the massive national media obsession with 'the One,' they will go to the guy they know the best."

Slightly toward Obama

"That is, however, all they need, as swing states are being delivered to Obama by Wall Street greed."

"McCain has failed to disqualify Obama as too liberal and too unprepared to be president."

"Economic woes and financial turmoil on Wall Street are too steep to give undecideds the comfort of voting for the incumbent party."

"This race has little to do with McCain. People hate Bush. And the question is, 'Can Barack Obama be president?' People are beginning to come to terms with the fact that 'Yes, he can.' "

"Obama still hasn't closed the deal, but McCain's campaign has been so uninspiring that they will take the chance."

Heavily toward Obama

"Obama is on a roll. And McCain's campaign resembles Bob Dole's '96 debacle. In fact, Dole's was better."

"Money, plus message, equals momentum."

Q: What impact will Colin Powell's endorsement have on Barack Obama's prospects?

Democrats (82 votes)

Help a lot     24 percent 
Help a little  67 percent
No real impact  9 percent

Help a lot

"The Powell endorsement was powerful on so many levels--both for the fundamental reassurance he offered for Obama and the indictment he leveled on McCain and his campaign."

"Enormous credibility for Barack in foreign affairs, a prior area of weakness."

"Can you name another reach-across-the-aisle moment in recent memory? I can't."

Help a little

"One more brick in the wall that separates McCain from what Gen. Powell calls 'the sensible center.' "

"If Obama needs any more validation of his foreign-policy judgment, the Powell endorsement provides it."

"It will help close the sale with voters leaning to Barack. Also helps with a sense of inevitability."

"Much like the Kennedy family endorsement earlier this year, it conveys respect and turns heads, too."

"Powell will reassure independents that Obama is ready."

"Obama needs verifiers that the American public need not fear his inexperience."

"The dynamic and the outcome were set here long before Powell's announcement, but it can't hurt."

"Gen. [Norman] Schwarzkopf would 'help a lot.' "

No real impact

"Yes, he's a Republican and a Bushie, but he's African-American, too."

Republicans (89 votes)

Help a lot      11 percent
Help a little   54 percent
No real impact  35 percent

Help a lot

"Many voters will see this move by Powell as a massive in-your-face repudiation of George W. Bush and his entire eight-year record--and as one more reason to vote for a change of parties."

"Instant credentials--even more devastating than the $150 million [Obama raised in September]."

Help a little

"Timing was terrific. Endorsements usually have little impact, but this one sends all kinds of signals and will likely help with some swing voters."

"Powell lost his credibility on the war. And it is clear that he is trying to regain it here--it only works with those who were leaning to Obama."

"Gives fence-sitting GOPers cover to jump ship."

"Together with Obama's money announcement the same day, Powell's endorsement inaugurated the 'McCain-in-meltdown' story, which makes it harder for the McCain campaign to get its message through."

"Would have helped considerably more had he not couched it in terms of his antipathy to the GOP for being too conservative. It appears to be more spite than commitment."

"If Powell had made this endorsement one month ago, it could have been seminal. Now it's mainly about confirming conventional wisdom."

No real impact

"The endorsement unfortunately and inadvertently underscores the racial element in this race."

"Colin Powell is and will be viewed as nothing more than a political Benedict Arnold."

National Journal Insiders
Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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