INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008


Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House in November?

Democrats (76 votes)

                        LOW (0-3)   MODERATE (4-6)   HIGH (7-10)
Oct. 11
Average Score: 8.0
                        0%          7%               93%

Sept. 20
Average Score: 6.3
                        0%          55%              45%

June 21
Average Score: 7.0
                        0%          35%              65%

Moderate

5. "It leans to Obama, but race and relentless personal attacks will take their toll."

6. "We have limited experience in evaluating 2008's variables, such as race and a concerted effort to turn out young voters. So nothing can be assumed."

High

7. "Obama should be 20 points ahead. There is still volatility in this race."

7. "It's still hard to know if the 'Bradley effect' [black candidates' scoring higher in polls than in the voting booth] is real, but Obama continues to gain momentum, and momentum is hard to stop in three weeks."

8. "Voters don't trust the GOP on the economy. And that is the only thing that matters now."

8. "The chances are very high that whatever the McCain-Palin campaign does to try to get back in the race will backfire on them and make their situation even worse."

8. "With the public surveys all tilting toward Obama in nearly all contested states, registration numbers setting more records than the fundraising, and the economic conditions worsening McCain's standing and credibility, it's time to start openly talking about a landslide."

8. "Only race could change this race. And it's 2008, not 1968."

8. "Obama needs to get through the next debate unscathed, and then batten down the hatches and ride the 'change' wave to victory."

8. "Opinions are hardening in this race. And that is a good thing for Obama and the Democrats."

8. "Even the candidate with nine lives probably cannot swim against this tidal wave."

9. "It's reality time: There is a meltdown on the economy, and we're fighting two wars, and it is happening on the Republican watch."

10. "Put a fork in Sen. McCain: He's done."

Republicans (76 votes)

                        LOW (0-3)   MODERATE (4-6)   HIGH (7-10)
Oct. 11
Average Score: 7.3
                        0%          20%              80%

Sept. 20
Average Score: 5.3
                        7%          77%              17%

June 21
Average Score: 6.0
                        2%          62%              36%

Moderate

6. "McCain needs something big to happen in his favor to win."

6. "McCain isn't as out of it as people think, but this is Obama's to lose."

High

7. "Wall Street's collapse probably sealed the deal for Obama."

7. "McCain-Palin have not changed the trend line in three debates, which means the only place to go is more negative. And that won't work in the midst of the financial crisis. They're getting critically outspent on TV. And Obama has a much more proficient ground game. Help!"

7. "McCain ran a truly awful campaign and hurt his brand big-time."

7. "Very little changed with the debate. And there is likely nothing that will change the political environment for McCain to close the gap."

7. "You can never entirely count McCain out, but both the atmospherics and the fundamentals are now pointing toward an Obama rout."

7. "It feels like 1996."

8. "Barring a terrorist incident or other foreign-policy crisis that takes the focus off the economy, Obama can't lose."

8. "But, frankly, with anybody but McCain it would be '10.' "

8. "As long as economic news dominates, McCain appears to have no way of breaking through."

8. "O.J. [Simpson] has a better chance of getting community service than McCain has of winning this thing."

9. "There is just no juice in the Republican effort--and no wonder: We failed time and again to provide appropriate leadership for our country and the world. We don't deserve another chance--at least for a while. And the American people agree."

10. "I love my crazy uncle. I don't like anybody else's."

Q: Regardless of who you think may have won the debate, who helped himself the most and why?

Democrats (77 votes)

Barack Obama   95 percent
John McCain     5 percent

Obama

"He was presidential in demeanor, tone, and approach. Next to McCain's uptight behavior, Obama looked much more ready to assume the presidency."

"He is slowly but surely grinding away any doubts about his commander-in-chief abilities."

"He has opened up a clear national lead. And McCain did not make up any ground in the debate."

"Obama helped himself by committing no gaffes and appearing presidential throughout."

"Although there were no knockout punches, he had another very solid performance."

"He needed to 'reassure' Americans about his maturity and judgment. And he accomplished that goal."

"Came across totally presidential, and reassured voters on specifics and security. Voters are getting to know who Obama is and what he wants to do."

"Obama helped himself a little more than McCain because he looked relaxed and confident. But, frankly, it was a dull, lackluster performance by both of the candidates--an oddly boring affair that lacked authenticity."

"Campaigns are about money, votes, and time. The first two have been favoring Obama, and now the clock is rapidly ticking down for McCain."

"He sat on his lead, and so far is getting away with it."

McCain

"After taking himself out of the game with his many missteps regarding the economic crisis, the debates have at least given him a foothold back in."

Republicans (75 votes)

Barack Obama            67 percent
John McCain             25 percent
Neither (volunteered)    8 percent

Obama

"Every time Obama is on the same stage with McCain he looks a little more presidential, a little more prepared for the job. McCain's attack strategy made him look so small at a time when the issues are so big."

"He made no mistakes, shed off McCain's punches, and ran down the clock--bringing him closer to Election Day."

"Neither did well, but a tie is a result that significantly helps Obama. McCain cannot get any traction on why he should be president because he has not effectively countered that he would not be a Bush third term."

"Obama appeared steady and presidential. McCain is too angry and full of contempt."

"He continued to dance and bob and weave artfully. No specifics that cannot later be abandoned."

"McCain needed a game-changing performance, and didn't get it."

McCain

"Neither had a particularly strong night, but at least McCain had a proposal on the mortgage crisis that he can talk about."

"He kept Obama on the defensive--emphasized Obama's youth and inexperience."

"Drew a clear picture of how dangerous an Obama administration would be on the economy."

Neither

"Ended in a tie. Whoever you liked going into the debate, you liked coming out."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Political Insiders Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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