INSIDE WASHINGTON

Congressional Insiders Poll

by Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell

Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008


Q: Which vice presidential nominee boosts his or her ticket's chances more?

Democrats (33 votes)

Democrat Joe Biden      33 percent
Republican Sarah Palin  45 percent
No difference           21 percent

Biden

"Palin made quite a splash, but her views and her record will not bear scrutiny."

"Wasilla [Alaska] is not typically thought of as a place where international relations are discussed. Biden is tested and true. After the euphoria of Palin has worn off, she will prove to be more of a detriment than a plus."

"The selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain shows desperation and cynicism. Joe Biden was a thoughtful choice."

"Palin is attractive personally, but her views are extreme and will not help McCain to attract the independents he needs to win."

Palin

"Biden helps an already popular and charismatic nominee, but Palin plays to the GOP base and resuscitates once again a lackluster nominee."

"The ultimate swing voters in this race--white women--have moved from narrowly Obama to comfortably McCain. If that trend line somehow holds, Obama would have to post the best Democratic numbers with white men since 1976. As for Biden, the least consequential vice presidential pick in the modern era is Jack Kemp in 1996. Biden is on pace to match him."

"Palin solidified the GOP base, but it isn't enough to beat Obama."

"Palin--because McCain needed more VP help than Obama to begin with."

"The addition of Gov. Palin to the Republican ticket has re-energized Democrats to defeat a Republican ticket completely out of touch with mainstream America."

No Difference

"Palin is hot now, but the shine will fade and people will vote the top of the ticket."

"The presidential race will come down to whether people believe Obama is an agent for change."

"While Palin has energized the conservative base, the McCain-Palin ticket could alienate independents and moderate Republicans."

Q: Which vice presidential nominee boosts his or her ticket's chances more?

Republicans (39 votes)

Democrat Joe Biden        0 percent 
Republican Sarah Palin  100 percent
No Difference             0 percent

Palin

"Sarah Palin is a rock star who has done what no deathbed conversion on immigration or judges or tax cuts could for John McCain: reignite the conservative base. She gives independents a reason to take a new look at McCain, and gives additional credibility to the maverick/reformer image. Biden was the 'safe' pick, at odds with his candidate's change mantra, and in the long run that will be a mistake."

"Obama showed his arrogance by not choosing Hillary. And McCain showed brilliance by choosing Palin."

"The energizing effect Palin's selection had on the entire party has dramatically altered the terrain of this race. She is now the focal point of the contest--something that won't change until after the VP debate."

"McCain, Biden, and Obama are known quantities. And they generate less interest when compared with the unknown that is Sarah Palin. By keeping the conversation about her and not Obama or McCain, the better chance McCain has to win."

"The Obama campaign is in a free fall trying to deal with Palin--poorly chosen comments and risky attacks have made the Democrats unsure, just as the nation is beginning to focus on the election. Palin has also energized McCain. He seems like the 2000 pre-South Carolina McCain again."

"It's Superwoman versus Super Shovel."

"There's no contest. She's a game-changer, and Biden's a Washington insider."

"Just look at the polls. Local people are volunteering like crazy. We haven't seen such excitement for years!"

"Hands down. Palin transformed McCain's campaign and Obama's 'change' message."

"Alaska's breath of free air is blowing the dust off Campaign 2008, making the media panicky and putting Democrats in full retreat."

"Sarah Palin brings a can-do expectation to the table that Joe Biden and his Senate pals have never even thought about."

"I think both sides can agree the Palin bounce is something to be reckoned with. McCain brought home the base and has, at least for now, changed the dynamic of the campaign. You don't see Sen. Biden on the news or front page of the print press 24/7 these days."

Q: Are any or all of the following likely to be enacted before Election Day?

Democrats (36 votes)

                                         Yes          No
Economic stimulus legislation         57 percent   42 percent
Expanded offshore drilling            61 percent   39 percent
Full-year fiscal 2009 appropriations  14 percent   86 percent

Economic stimulus

"Yes. Best bet is to put energy, stimulus, and appropriations in one giant measure."

"Yes--at the 11th hour, but who knows what it will be."

"No. There are too many moving parts, too many opinions, and too little time to find common ground."

"No. Republicans are needed to get the president to sign bills. And they don't want Democrats to get anything done--a position McCain supports."

Offshore drilling

"Yes. Ironically, congressional inaction would cause the moratorium on Outer Continental Shelf drilling to be lifted, because the congressionally imposed moratorium expires on September 30. Nevertheless, I expect a comprehensive energy bill--with provisions relating to offshore drilling--to pass the House and possibly be signed into law before the election."

"Yes. The House will pass it (as Pelosi should have gotten a clue and done before the August recess). The Senate Democrats have learned the lesson of the GOP's message success on this issue. Bush will sign it, and McCain will declare victory."

"Yes. Democrats will lift the moratorium outright only on the Atlantic coast; Bush will balk and threaten a '95-style shutdown unless the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is included; congressional Republicans will decide to claim victory on drilling and provide the votes to override a veto on a continuing resolution through December."

"No. Republicans will not compromise for fear of losing the issue."

"No. There are 27 big reasons why this won't happen."

Full-year appropriations

"No. Congress will pass a continuing resolution, but why on earth would Bush sign it?"

Q: Are any or all of the following likely to be enacted before Election Day?

Republicans (40 votes)

                                        Yes         No
Economic stimulus legislation         8 percent  93 percent
Expanded offshore drilling           30 percent  70 percent
Full-year fiscal 2009 appropriations  3 percent  98 percent

Economic stimulus

"No. Doubtful the Senate will be able to get its act together in time to pass another stimulus. The only way it happens is if leadership keeps them in beyond September 26."

"No. Why would the Democrats start working now?"

"No. Democrats will overreach and pass a House bill with tax increases on small businesses and no chance of being signed into law."

Offshore drilling

"Yes. The only way an energy package will clear both houses and be signed into law is if it includes some form of expanded offshore drilling. Public opinion is too strong to ignore during an election year."

"Yes, though the definition of 'expanded' may make this a 'No.' "

"Yes. The speaker is 'rolling the dice' by continuing to block responsible energy legislation."

"No. The Democrats seem to have had a conversion experience during the August recess, but their version of offshore drilling legislation, which will feature lots of tax increases on oil companies and very little chance of increased drilling, will not get signed by the president."

"No. While Americans struggle with high prices at the gas pump, escalating home-heating costs, and the loss of their jobs, the Democrat leadership will continue its 'let-them-eat-cake' strategy."

Full-year appropriations

"Not a chance."

"No. Bare-bones continuing resolution will be it for now."

"No. At the detriment to the American people, no one seems to want to accomplish anything other than making the other side look like obstructionists."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, Jon Tester; Reps. Tom Allen, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Chris Van Hollen, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.

GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Sununu, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Chris Cannon, Eric Cantor, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Tom Davis, John Doolittle, David Dreier, Phil English, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Ray LaHood, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Jim McCrery, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Marilyn Musgrave, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Deborah Pryce, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Tom Reynolds, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Christopher Shays, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Zach Wamp, and Joe Wilson.

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