INSIDE WASHINGTON

Congressional Insiders Poll

by Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell

Sat. Jul 26, 2008


Q: How many House seats will the Democrats gain or lose in November?

Democrats (42 votes)

Average:               Now           March 15
                      +16.5 seats   +13.8 seats

Lose seats              0 percent
No change               0 percent
Gain 1 to 9 seats       5 percent
Gain 10 to 19 seats    67 percent
Gain 20 or more seats  29 percent

Gain 10 to 19 seats

15. "Democrats will achieve a strong majority to support the new Obama administration."

15. "Those Republicans that aren't retiring are playing defense all over the map. This will be another Democratic wave."

16. "The [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's] 'Red to Blue' effort should be rebranded 'All Shades of Red to Blue.' "

18. "Could be a Republican washout if McCain collapses."

Gain 20 or more seats

25. "We won't win all 75 seats where Republican incumbents show an under-40 percent re-elect number in polls. But we should take at least one-third, so base of 25 [Democratic gains]. Republican label is a disaster this year."

Republicans (33 votes)

Average:               Now            March 15
                      +6.6 seats     -0.6 seats

Lose 10 or more seats   9 percent
Lose 1 to 9 seats       3 percent
No change               3 percent
Gain 1 to 9 seats      36 percent
Gain 10 to 19 seats    39 percent
Gain 20 or more seats   6 percent
Depends (volunteered)   3 percent

Lose 10 or more seats

20. "A presidential year where McCain will run strongly in Republican districts now held by Democrats."

Gain 10 to 19 seats

15. "Just shy of being a total bloodbath."

15. "Despite picking Democratic gains, all bets are off if they continue to block American energy production."

17. "In this environment and with all the money Democrats have raised, Election Day victories will be handed to them on a silver platter."

Depends

"No idea. It depends on what happens with [the] energy issue. If we deal with that, I do not think Democrat gains will be as strong as it looks now."

Q: How many Senate seats will the Democrats gain or lose in November?

Democrats (41 votes)

Average:              Now           March 15
                     +5.8 seats    +4.7 seats

Lose seats             0 percent
No change              0 percent
Gain 1 to 3 seats      7 percent
Gain 4 to 6 seats     66 percent
Gain 7 or more seats  27 percent

Gain 4 to 6 seats

5. "The Democrats will finally have a working majority in the U.S. Senate in the 111th Congress."

5. "Democrats have better candidates and more money."

6. "A great year, but probably not enough to reach the magic number of 60."

6. "Still a long time till November, though."

Gain 7 or more seats

7. "Democratic gain of 7: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire are surefire pickups, with Oregon and North Carolina trending Democratic. The upset of the cycle: [Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell falls in Kentucky."

11. "They should immediately change their rules to 'majority rules,' so they can accomplish something."

Republicans (34 votes)

Average:             Now           March 15
                    +3.9 seats    +2.9 seats

Lose seats             0 percent
No change              3 percent
Gain 1 to 3 seats     35 percent
Gain 4 to 6 seats     50 percent
Gain 7 or more seats   9 percent
Depends (volunteered)  3 percent

Gain 1 to 3 seats

3. "The best-case scenario holds true as Republicans lose New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, but pick up Louisiana."

Gain 4 to 6 seats

4. "In a historical context (two Bush terms), this is not a realignment election."

6. "Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia."

National Journal Insiders

Democratic Congressional Insiders Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, Jon Tester; Reps. Tom Allen, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Steve Israel, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Chris Van Hollen, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.

GOP Congressional Insiders Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Sununu, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Chris Cannon, Eric Cantor, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Tom Davis, John Doolittle, David Dreier, Phil English, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Ray LaHood, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Jim McCrery, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Marilyn Musgrave, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Deborah Pryce, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Tom Reynolds, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Christopher Shays, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Zach Wamp, and Joe Wilson.

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