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INSIDE WASHINGTON

Political Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Sat. Jul 5, 2008


Q: What are Barack Obama's two biggest vulnerabilities?

Democrats (84 votes)

Inexperience                       61 percent
Race                               49 percent
Perceived elitism                  30 percent
Past associations                  18 percent
Liberal voting record              15 percent
Shift on policy positions          13 percent
Unenthusiastic Clinton supporters  11 percent

Other responses: Arrogance (volunteered) 2 percent

Inexperience

"No matter how he tries to paper it over, it is on people's minds."

"Any gaffe is magnified. And this isn't the primary season, with the media drooling all over Obama."

Race

"It's been used effectively to derail white politicians. It will also hamper Obama in winning over crucial voting blocs."

"This is the hidden issue in some of the key states that could swing the election. McCain can't push it directly; he doesn't have to. It is there."

Perceived elitism

"Budweiser drinkers never vote for Heineken drinkers."

Past associations

"What attracts so many to Barack is his unusual background and upbringing. It's that very background that also scares many voters."

Liberal voting record

"Dismissing Obama on the grounds that he is 'too liberal' is probably the most politically correct, comfortable way for white and Latino Democrats and independents to explain out loud why they voted for McCain."

Shift on policy positions

"When you are the agent of change, [it's] hard to explain acting like a typical politician."

Unenthusiastic Clinton supporters

"Pro-Obama press corps discounts this. Polls and others don't."

Q: What are Barack Obama's two biggest vulnerabilities?

Republicans (87 votes)

Inexperience                      69 percent
Liberal voting record             56 percent
Race                              25 percent
Perceived elitism                 24 percent
Past associations                 10 percent
Shift on policy positions         10 percent 
Unenthusiastic Clinton supporters  3 percent

Other responses: Gasoline prices, 1 percent.

Inexperience

"McCain can undermine Obama's entire candidacy with just three words uttered daily: 'Just not ready.' "

"People will have a hard time entrusting the world's largest nuclear arsenal to a man who was a lackluster state senator only four years ago."

Liberal voting record

"The 'most liberal senator' line has lost much of its luster, but this really becomes problematic when paired with his 'new politics' fluffery, which makes it appear as if he's either naive or a wolf in sheep's clothing."

Race

"Anyone who says race isn't a factor is living in a naive, politically correct fantasyland."

Perceived elitism

"It is stunning to say this about an African-American candidate, but his campaign reeks of noblesse oblige and a sense of 'We know best.' "

Past associations

"With friends like Pastor [Jeremiah] Wright and others, he doesn't need enemies."

Shift on policy positions

"When people want change, they don't want changes in policies just to get elected."

Unenthusiastic Clinton supporters

"Putting Clinton on the ticket would solve this, but would probably give him another set of problems."

Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

Q: What are John McCain's two biggest vulnerabilities?

Democrats (84 votes)

President Bush's unpopularity    69 percent 
Economy                          57 percent
Age                              37 percent
Support for the Iraq war         15 percent
Unenthusiastic conservative base  8 percent
Shifts on policy positions        5 percent
Fundraising                       4 percent

Other responses: His temper, 2 percent

President Bush's unpopularity

"McCain tries to be a maverick, but he votes with Bush 95 percent of the time--when he votes. His domestic policy rollouts are Bush retreads."

"Every time we see the shot of McCain hugging Bush, or Bush on the campaign trail, it is a reminder why this country needs to go in a new direction."

Economy

"Saying he 'doesn't really understand economics,' coupled with not knowing the price of a gallon of gas, must have Republicans longing for Bob Dole again."

"McCain has yet to communicate a message on the economy with any conviction or energy that makes Americans feel any reason to vote for him."

Age

"Every time McCain gets off the airplane, he hikes his pants up like a grandpa. That does not speak to voters' hopes for the future."

Support for the Iraq war

"McCain's steadfast support for the Iraq war garners him well-deserved support for his willingness to go against public opinion, yet it is his unwillingness to acknowledge this foreign-policy blunder that causes many Americans to see him as old and unyielding."

Shifts on policy positions

"Can be exploited to blow up the brand of Mr. Straight Talk."

Fundraising

"Obama will have unlimited money to spend in the core battleground states, and enough to [force] McCain to burn some dough on red turf."

Q: What are John McCain's two biggest vulnerabilities?

Republicans (89 votes)

President Bush's unpopularity     66 percent 
Economy                           42 percent
Age                               31 percent
Unenthusiastic conservative base  26 percent
Fundraising                       18 percent
Support for the Iraq war           8 percent
Shifts on policy positions         4 percent

Other responses: Campaign organization (volunteered), 2 percent; Republican label (volunteered), 1 percent.

President Bush's unpopularity

"Bush has become such political poison it is hard to get anyone to listen to a Republican message."

"In the fall, he must completely divorce himself from President Bush."

"The albatross for the Republican Party."

Economy

"On the economy, when it gets this bad people just want change, no matter what form it takes. And Obama is actually proposing stuff."

"It's getting worse. And he doesn't know how to talk about it. On Iraq, he can change some minds; on the economy, he's hopeless."

Age

"Every [time] McCain and Obama are shown next to each other is a reminder that McCain is an old man. Something unique has to be done to reassure voters he is up to the task."

Unenthusiastic conservative base

"McCain has done the perfunctory things, but to get them motivated he will have to do much more."

Fundraising

"It's not spin; Obama's money will force McCain to burn through Benjamins in states he wouldn't normally have to. See Virginia."

Shifts on policy positions

"Which McCain is the real McCain--the candidate who supports making tax cuts permanent, or the senator who voted against them?"

GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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About Insiders Poll

  • A weekly survey of members of Congress or political operatives about topics in the news.

Previously in The Insiders Poll

  • 06 28, 2008 Congressional Insiders Poll
  • 06 21, 2008 Insiders Poll
  • 06 14, 2008 Political Insiders Poll
  • 06 07, 2008 Congressional Insiders Poll
  • 05 31, 2008 Political Insiders Poll

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