INSIDE WASHINGTON

Insiders Poll

by Richard E. Cohen and Peter Bell

Sat. Jun 21, 2008


Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House?

Democrats (130 votes)

Average score: 7.2

Virtual Certainty
10    6%
 9    6%
 8   32%
 7   25%
 6   24%
 5    7%
 4
 3
 2
 1
 0
No Chance

Moderate chance

5. "The country is still evenly divided."

5. "It could come down to a couple of key states, i.e., Michigan. And they are closer than people think or realize."

5. "Don't forget [Democratic nominee Michael] Dukakis had a double-digit lead in summer '88."

6. "Obama's historic candidacy carries unique uncertainty, but the fundamentals greatly favor Democrats, making this a good year to take on the challenge."

6. "The race remains one in which voters have to decide whether to take a chance on an interesting but untested candidate."

6. "Movement, message, and organization favor Democrats, but the country is still divided along partisan lines, and the race will tighten up to reflect that."

6. "McCain is flawed, but the monied interests have nowhere [else] to go. And Obama has issues which will be exploited."

6. "If the Republicans had nominated anyone other than McCain, it would be a 9.5."

6. "Hillary voters are still fluid, even though the polls may indicate otherwise."

6. "If he chooses Hillary Clinton for vice president, it goes up to 9."

Strong chance

7. "All basic political logic points to a Democratic presidency. Then again, all basic political logic also says that we're Democrats, and if anyone can find a way to lose, it's us."

7. "Obama needs to continue building his national security credentials through his VP choice, military surrogates, and major foreign-policy addresses."

7. "It is going to be a long, tough summer for both campaigns."

7. "The chance of Obama winning the popular vote is a near-certainty, but his chance of winning the Electoral College is no better than even."

8. "After the presidential debates, put me down for an 11."

8. For Democrats to fail, "Obama would have to tank and McCain would have to hold up [during] the tough campaign: Neither is likely."

8. "The environment favors Democrats, and Obama is in the process of strengthening his already strong team. If his campaign executes, he should win fairly easily."

8. "We should have a lock, but as good Democrats, we can screw up anything--and have proven that more than once."

9. "At a time of soaring energy prices and mortgage defaults, rising unemployment, and economic uncertainty and deepening debt, it is hard to imagine that the American people will elect the Republican candidate who admits to having, at best, a rudimentary knowledge of economic issues."

9. " 'President Obama,' unless gas hits $2 a gallon, unemployment 2 percent, Iraq asks our troops to leave and we do, and the weird weather stops."

10. "This nation wants change, and Barack can motivate registration to record numbers. The Democrats already have in place ground operations in every state. And all things add up to a political revolution in America."

10. "Losing under these circumstances would require the greatest failure or the strangest events in history."

10. "Even Karl Rove and his minions from hell cannot stop this tide."

Democratic Congressional Insiders
Sens. Sherrod Brown, Ben Cardin, Thomas Carper, Christopher Dodd, Edward Kennedy, Frank Lautenberg, Barbara Mikulski, Mark Pryor, Ken Salazar, Jon Tester; Reps. Tom Allen, Robert Andrews, Michael Arcuri, Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Xavier Becerra, Howard Berman, Marion Berry, Rick Boucher, Michael Capuano, Dennis Cardoza, Chris Carney, James Clyburn, Jim Cooper, Joseph Crowley, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Eliot Engel, Anna Eshoo, Sam Farr, Chaka Fattah, Bob Filner, Alcee Hastings, Mike Honda, Jay Inslee, Steve Israel, Jim Langevin, John Lewis, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Ed Markey, Jim McDermott, Jim McGovern, Kendrick Meek, Jim Moran, David Price, Silvestre Reyes, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, Adam Smith, John Spratt, Pete Stark, John Tanner, Ellen Tauscher, Bennie Thompson, Chris Van Hollen, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Henry Waxman, and Peter Welch.

Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof, and Jim Zogby.

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House?

Republicans (130 votes)

Average score: 5.8

Virtual Certainty
10 
 9    2%
 8    7%
 7   18%
 6   27%
 5   35%
 4    8%
 3    3%
 2
 1
 0
No Chance

Slight chance

3. "It's a long time until November--plenty of time to get to know Mr. Obama more intimately."

3. "With a fourth of the Clinton vote headed to McCain, suddenly it's Obama [who is] playing catch-up!"

Moderate chance

4. "As Obama puts meat on the bone of his 'change' mantra, independents and blue-collar Democrats will be left feeling hungry."

4. "Democrats nominated the only person who could possibly lose, and the Republicans nominated the only person who could possibly win."

5. "Since McCain has significant cross-party appeal, and Obama is still not well known, I think there is lots of fluidity to this race."

5. "Historically, the GOP's chances climb as the election season wears on."

5. "Obama is not the Tiger Woods of electoral politics. He has a bum knee called 'liberalism.' But McCain has the fundraising prowess of a Charles Manson charity drive."

5. "Obama should be way ahead with independents, and he's not. The road will become even more difficult for Obama as folks come to understand that he's more liberal than Ted Kennedy."

5. "This election is going to be decided in the last 72 hours. The Democrats are going to have to hope their fundraising and organizational advantage can prop up their empty suit until then."

6. "Obama's elitism alienates working-class whites in swing states. Plus, none of those college kids will actually show up to vote. McCain has a shot--only because he is mostly the anti-Bush Republican."

6. "Would be higher if Sen. Clinton hadn't done so much damage to Sen. Obama during the primary."

6. "Should be an 8, but Obama is so unknown, so untested, and so uneven in the thrust and parry that is contemporary politics."

6. "And if they don't win, they should go into hiding."

Strong chance

7. "A significant majority of Americans want to like Obama. If he can keep from screwing that up, and turn out his folks, he'll win."

7. "If the Democrats had nominated anyone else, it would be 9.5."

7. "At this point, the sour mood of the country is so strong and the knowledge of who Obama really is so weak that the Democrats could put up a lamppost and win."

7. "After eight years of one party, with the economy in trouble, it will take a complete meltdown by Obama to keep the White House in Republican hands."

7. "I've already planned my ski trip for the week of January 20."

8. "A third term for the incumbent party at a time of war and economic uncertainty should be impossible, but Obama is young, untested, and sufficiently liberal that he could lose."

8. "Bush won twice by maximizing the turnout. McCain has no such operation."

8. "Unless three of every eight 'wrong track' voters support McCain, he mathematically can't win."

9. "No matter the hyperbole from the Republicans, or the desire of the media for a horse race, voters want significant change. They are disgusted with Bush and his inability to address the economic anxiety they are experiencing."

GOP Congressional Insiders
Sens. Lamar Alexander, Jim Bunning, John Cornyn, Jim DeMint, Lindsey Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Johnny Isakson, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe, John Sununu, John Thune, David Vitter; Reps. Michele Bachmann, Brian Bilbray, Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, Kevin Brady, John Campbell, Chris Cannon, Eric Cantor, Michael Castle, Tom Cole, Mike Conaway, Tom Davis, John Doolittle, David Dreier, Phil English, Jeff Flake, Scott Garrett, Bob Goodlatte, Kay Granger, Doc Hastings, Pete Hoekstra, Bob Inglis, Peter King, Jack Kingston, Mark Kirk, John Kline, Ray LaHood, Dan Lungren, Kenny Marchant, Jim McCrery, Patrick McHenry, John Mica, Candice Miller, Marilyn Musgrave, Sue Myrick, Devin Nunes, Mike Pence, Tom Price, Deborah Pryce, Adam Putnam, Dave Reichert, Tom Reynolds, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Paul Ryan, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Christopher Shays, Adrian Smith, Mark Souder, Pat Tiberi, Fred Upton, Zach Wamp, and Joe Wilson.

GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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