- Sun. Nov 22, 2009
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Q: Which three Bush states are Obama's best pickup chances? Which three Kerry states are his biggest challenges?
Democrats (77 votes)
Obama's pickup chances
Iowa 71 percent New Mexico 44 percent Colorado 23 percent Virginia 23 percent Ohio 20 percent Nevada 7 percent Florida 3 percent Missouri 3 percent North Carolina 3 percent
Iowa
"Built-in Obama caucus organization and rampart anti-war sentiment sink McCain. Iowa gets Obama the nomination and the victory in November."
New Mexico
"McCain's new hard line on immigration nudges the Land of Enchantment into the Democratic column."
Colorado
"Highly educated state with an anti-Washington view."
Virginia
"The Senate race, black turnout, and NOVA should make this one happen."
Ohio
"Obama may have problems with working-class whites, but Bush barely won this state in '04, and the economy here is a lot worse than four years ago. Plus, Democratic turnout in Cleveland will go through the roof while the religious conservatives will sit home and pray, rather than play for McCain."
Nevada
"Registration numbers now heavily favor Democrats."
Florida
"Assuming [Gov. Charlie] Crist is not on the [GOP] ticket, Florida could be had with the right economic appeal and [with] strength among seniors."
Obama's biggest challenges
New Hampshire 59 percent Michigan 37 percent Pennsylvania 35 percent Wisconsin 24 percent Minnesota 19 percent New Jersey 3 percent Oregon 3 percent Washington 2 percent Maine 1 percent
New Hampshire
"While the state is trending Democratic, McCain has some unique strengths among independents. And Kerry's win was aided a little by proximity to Massachusetts."
"They have always come through for McCain. If he doesn't win New Hampshire, he will be in a lot of trouble."
Michigan
"All the silliness surrounding the [delegate] rules fight can't help, plus [Gov. Jennifer] Granholm and [Detroit Mayor] Kwame Kilpatrick are huge drags for Obama."
"Michigan lacks a powerhouse urban core that can carry the whole state."
Pennsylvania
"Combination of working-class white voters and 'bitter' rural voters makes this a good GOP target."
Wisconsin
"The state was extremely close four years ago, and the demographics could help McCain."
Minnesota
"[Gov.] Tim Pawlenty to the rescue."
Methodology: A first-place vote was worth 3 points, a second-place vote 2 points, and a third-place 1 point. The rankings are based on the percentage of points that each state received compared with the possible maximum number. For example, Iowa received 71 percent of the maximum possible 231 points, its total if all 77 Democrats had ranked it as Obama's best pickup opportunity.
Q: Which three Kerry states are McCain's best pickup chances? And which three Bush states are his biggest challenges?
Republicans (86 votes)
McCain's pickup chances
New Hampshire 76 percent Pennsylvania 45 percent Michigan 42 percent Wisconsin 22 percent Minnesota 10 percent Maine 3 percent New Jersey 2 percent
New Hampshire
"Its independent streak and its whiteness (no big industrial center) should help. If he picks [Mitt] Romney [as his running mate], this is a big pickup opportunity."
"Despite the influence from the liberal Boston media market, New Hampshire is also home to many 'bitter' and independent-minded voters who can see through the Obama double-talk."
"John McCain is God in that state. And a lot of Democrats and independents have voted for him in primaries."
Pennsylvania
"Obama can't win working-class voters here without [Gov. Ed] Rendell on the ticket."
"Hicks clinging to their guns, and racism will have the last laugh."
Michigan
"Despite the turnout machine in Detroit heavily focused on the African-American vote, union white households don't trust Obama to look out for them."
"Job losses and an unpopular governor are a good recipe for a pickup, especially if Romney is on the ticket."
Wisconsin
"Home turf for Obama, but look for some Chicago backlash from rural cheeseheads."
Minnesota
"If [Gov. Tim] Pawlenty's popular enough at home to get the veep nod, this quirky state will tip to the quirkier nominee."
McCain's biggest challenges
Iowa 67 percent New Mexico 33 percent Colorado 25 percent Ohio 25 percent Virginia 21 percent Nevada 12 percent Missouri 5 percent North Carolina 2 percent Florida 1 percent
Iowa
"Ethanol is McCain's kryptonite."
"They made Obama. They will see it through."
New Mexico
"[Gov. Bill] Richardson wants a Cabinet position and will work hard for Obama."
Colorado
"Weak conservative GOP Senate candidate for open seat will hurt McCain's more moderate stances."
Ohio
"Economy and job losses come out of the hide of the GOP."
"In Ohio, it's better to be a felon, a lawyer, or even a lobbyist than to be a Republican."
Virginia
"Lots of 'Obamacans' in Northern Virginia, and lots of black voters all over."
Nevada
"Tie goes to the unions."
Missouri
"With heavy black turnout in St. Louis and recent [GOP] losses statewide, Missouri is not as dependable as it once was."
Democratic Political Insiders
Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, and JoDee Winterhof, Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders
Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.
About Insiders Poll
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