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A senior Democratic strategist observed last week that at this stage in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles, he had some inkling that the political environment would be favorable for his party on Election Day. Today, though, he has no idea whether Democrats will be playing offense or defense in November 2010.

Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the president and his party. And right now, President Obama is certainly no liability: His job-approval ratings average about 60 percent and hit 66 percent in a just-released CBS News/New York Times survey. These are solid numbers for a new president.

The budget package apparently took a bit of a toll on the popularity of congressional Democrats.

An analysis of the Gallup Organization's nightly tracking surveys, which over the course of a week poll about 3,500 adults, shows that for seven consecutive weeks Obama's job-approval rating has been in a very tight range -- from 61 percent to 64 percent. Attitudes toward the president's performance are holding remarkably stable across the 40 demographic and political subgroups measured. For example, among Democrats, Obama's approval rating consistently lands within 2 percentage points of 90 percent, among independents within 3 points of 60 percent, and among Republicans within 4 points of 31 percent.

Americans who like Obama, think highly of him, and wish him well are sticking with him. His critics aren't changing their stripes, either. And the initially undecided are gradually choosing sides.

In the CBS/Times poll, 63 percent of respondents said that Obama was more likely than congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about the economy. Just 20 percent disagreed. Sixty-one percent said that Obama was more likely than congressional Republicans to make the right decisions about keeping the nation safe. Twenty-seven percent disagreed.

For now, the public largely perceives Obama as trying to get the country out of an economic mess that he didn't create. And, perhaps largely as a result, his approval ratings are higher than the share of the vote he received in November.

Inevitably, if the economy doesn't begin to recover, he will be assigned full ownership of the problem. Politically, Obama needs the economy to be clearly bottoming out by early next year and showing signs of recovery in the second half of the year.

Among economists these days, the new buzz phrase is "green shoots," meaning signs of new growth amid all the economic deadwood. Two months ago, even remotely positive economic statistics were isolated and seemingly random events. Now there is a steady stream of tiny glimmers of hope. The crackerjack Wall Street economic forecasting firm ISI Group pointed in an April 3 report to 38 such green shoots in global economic numbers. It concluded, "This probably means that the rate of decline in economic activity is moderating, but we do not believe that the economy is making a bottom." In other words, we haven't hit bottom but might be able to see it soon.

However, if the economy doesn't begin its comeback by mid-2010, Obama's approval numbers and his party's prospects in the midterm elections could dramatically drop. Although he is a huge asset now, it's not hard to see how he could become a liability.

Once a recovery begins, the danger becomes a "double dip." Recoveries can be extremely fragile. It doesn't take much for the economy to sink back into recession.

In some ways, Democrats are in a good news/bad news situation. The good news for them is that the Republican Party still has horrific ratings -- 31 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable in the CBS/Times poll, compared with 56 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable for Democrats. And nothing the GOP is saying or doing is helping its cause.

The bad news for Democrats is that midterm elections are rarely a referendum on the party out of power. The only exception that comes to mind is the punishment that the GOP took in 1998 for trying to oust President Clinton from office.

For now, even though Obama and his party enjoy favorable ratings, the public does distinguish between the president and congressional Democrats. The budget package apparently took a bit of a toll on the popularity of congressional Democrats. On the generic ballot test, they are now running ahead of Republicans by only mid-single digits. That's not a sign of GOP recovery, but it could be an indication that some voters are having second thoughts about the Hill Democrats' enjoying such big majorities.

Bottom line: Watch the economy, Obama's approval ratings, and the generic ballot test for clues about the environment in November 2010.