U.S. Spy Chief Says Mubarak Likely to Step Down Today

CIA Director Leon Panetta told House lawmakers today that there is "a strong likelihood" that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down today but that the United States had no direct confirmation of that.

Panetta was on Capitol Hill defending U.S. intelligence assessments of the turmoil rocking Egypt and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Testifying before the House Intelligence Committee, he said,  “There is a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening, which would be significant in terms of where this, hopefully orderly, transition in Egypt is going,” he said, adding later,  "I would assume that he would turn over more of his powers to [Vice President Omar] Suleiman to be able to direct the country and direct the reforms that hopefully will take place."

But Panetta cautioned that U.S. intelligence has not confirmed that Mubarak will resign. "I received reports that possibly Mubarak might do that," the spy chief said. "We are continuing to monitor the situation. We have not gotten specific word that he will in fact do that."

He said that what happens in Egypt can affect what happens in other countries, noting that the "ingredients" present in Egypt, such as social strife and unemployment, are also present in other countries.

“I think the triggers, the factors that kicked off in Egypt could very well” affect other countries, Panetta said.

He acknowledged that getting fast, correct intelligence on the recent uprisings has been challenging.

There were about 400 intelligence assessments during the last year on turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, Panetta said, but he acknowledged that the CIA can do a better job of understanding the “triggers” that led to the uprisings.

“Our biggest problem is always, how do we get into the head of somebody,” Panetta said. “When it came to [former Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali], I think everybody assumed a dictator in place was going to crush the opposition.”

Want to stay ahead of the curve? Sign up for National Journal’s AM & PM Must Reads. News and analysis to ensure you don’t miss a thing.